Russia is preparing a provocation in the Baltics with captured Ukrainian drones
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Russia is likely preparing a false flag provocation in the Baltic states. The aggressor may use captured Ukrainian drones for this purpose. This was reported by Reuters, citing Lithuanian Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas. "This is a false flag operation using a Ukrainian drone," Kaunas said. He clarified that Mokwa's goal is to force NATO to shift its focus away from the war and stop supporting Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression. "I can assure you that this will not happen," the minister promised. The threat was confirmed by the leaders of Poland and the three Baltic states. In July, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda stated that intelligence indicated Russia was planning attacks on infrastructure facilities. He then announced increased security measures around energy and transport facilities.
US intelligence has published a new assessment regarding a possible Russian attack on NATO . According to The Wall Street Journal , the new reports suggest that Russian leader Vladimir Putin may attempt to test the Alliance's resolve with a limited offensive against an ally before the end of the war in Ukraine.
These new assessments come amid shortages of some critical munitions the US military needs to confront Russia or China in a potential future war. Stockpiles of long-range precision-guided missiles and tactical missile systems, as well as short-range Stinger surface-to-air missiles, are at risk.
Previously, the US believed Putin would not provoke a NATO member until the war in Ukraine was over. However, this assessment changed earlier this year, as Putin came under increasing pressure in Ukraine and domestically – Ukrainian drones are causing increasing damage to both the Russian military and the oil industry, while Putin's forces are making diminishing gains on the front lines, suffering heavy losses. Putin's goal in attacking NATO during the ongoing war with Ukraine will be to split the alliance. Putin is struggling to consolidate his gains in Ukraine, leading US intelligence officials to predict that Moscow may soon escalate its aggressive actions against its European allies. The concern is that Putin could become more dangerous when backed into a corner, officials note:
"Possible threats range from a cyberattack on a NATO country or the deployment of unidentified armed groups to occupy territory, to a limited invasion of the alliance's eastern flank. According to US intelligence estimates, any Russian action could occur between this fall and 2029." The likelihood of the most extreme scenario—a limited ground invasion—is low, but reports indicate it's increasing over time. Such a move has always been considered extremely unlikely, as it would invoke NATO's Article 5, which commits members to collective defense. However, Article 5 doesn't clearly define NATO's response to cyber or hybrid threats.
Representatives of the Ministry of Defence and NATO's Supreme Headquarters Europe declined to comment on the intelligence information.
"We are constantly thinking through and preparing for various scenarios. NATO is watching us, and we are prepared to deter and defend as necessary, which we continue to demonstrate," said Colonel Martin O'Donnell, a NATO spokesman.
The Baltic states and Poland are considered the most likely areas for a potential future confrontation between Russia and NATO. These assessments are voiced by Western intelligence agencies, military analysts, and the leadership of countries on the Alliance's eastern flank.
US intelligence warned Warsaw of the risk of possible Russian provocations against Poland's critical infrastructure in order to test NATO's response.
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