"Everything's burning, Putin doesn't care"; politically explosive and social crisis in Russia
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The Washington Post reports that Russians have begun withdrawing money from the banking system at a record pace amid growing fears that the Kremlin is prepared to confiscate deposits or restrict access to cash to finance the war. Since the beginning of the year, the increase in cash in circulation has already exceeded the total for the entire year 2022. According to the newspaper, the volume of cash in Russia increased by 286.4 billion rubles in the first two weeks of August alone. In July, the increase was 643.4 billion rubles, and in June, approximately 450 billion. Overall, cash has increased by approximately 2.45 trillion rubles since the beginning of the year.
WP sources offer a more alarming explanation. An anonymous former official at the Russian financial agency said people are becoming increasingly nervous because "drones are flying" and "everything is burning ." According to him, this outflow is already becoming a problem for some banks: they didn't expect clients to withdraw around half a trillion rubles monthly and have placed their funds in other assets. "Perhaps people are starting to adopt a simple, everyday logic: it's better to keep cash under your pillow than in a bank, where you might not get it back at some point," he said. "If the government needs money, Putin will simply seize the assets. He doesn't care," said a person close to the Russian billionaire, adding that, in his view, "this is exactly where things are heading. " "This is all a consequence of the fear that the government will do something to the banking system, that it might nationalize deposits," said former Central Bank employee Alexandra Prokopenko. The July cash outflow hit a historic high. Sber expects the cash volume to grow by approximately 3.8 trillion rubles by the end of 2026. Companies have been less likely to return revenue to banks through cash collection and more frequently use cash for payments to employees and contractors. Another factor cited was connectivity issues, which make card payments more difficult. A Moscow businessman told WP that everyone who can is trying to get money out of the country, but it's becoming increasingly difficult. Opening brokerage accounts in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Armenia is cited as one possible avenue.
The Times reports that Vladimir Putin's devastating war against Ukraine is increasingly alarming Russian financiers. According to the publication's editorial board, the Russian economy has been devastated by the nearly five-year war, and representatives of the financial community are already warning not only of long-term damage to the country's prosperity but also of the risk of a politically explosive "social crisis."
Putin is increasingly forced to choose between funding war and supporting business. Small businesses are drowning in debt. Defense contractors receive loans at subsidized rates, while ordinary commercial borrowers pay interest rates of 24% or higher. Personal bankruptcies have reached record levels. The Times specifically notes Ukrainian drone strikes on Wildberries warehouses . According to the publication, Kyiv has identified a critical vulnerability in the Russian economy: if small businesses begin to collapse en masse after losing goods and credit debt, problems could follow for Russian banks. The dream that the war could still end "with great glory for Russia," The Times writes, now looks like an illusion to all but Putin's most blinded supporters.
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