Putin replaces Gerasimov: dictator does not forgive the general for his Ukrainian failures
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The American think tank CNA, which works with the Pentagon, has named three possible candidates to replace Valery Gerasimov as Chief of the General Staff of Russia . The report notes that the current Chief of the General Staff will turn 71 this year—an unusually old age for such a position. This fuels rumors that he could be replaced within the next year or two. CNA names the most likely candidates as Commander-in-Chief of the Ground Forces, Colonel General Andrei Mordvichev , Commander of the Moscow Military District Sergei Kuzovlev , and Commander-in-Chief of the Aerospace Forces Alexander Chayko . Notably, on August 1, an assassination attempt was made on Chayko in central Moscow, resulting in the death of his son-in-law.
The analysts based their conclusions on a study of the career trajectories of Russian officers and previous Chiefs of the General Staff. Since 1997, each new Chief of the General Staff held a senior position in a military district before their appointment and had experience within the General Staff or the Ministry of Defense. The typical age for appointment is between 55 and 62, usually at the rank of colonel general, followed by rapid promotion to general of the army.
CNA considers 50-year-old Andrei Mordvichev the most likely candidate. His career has developed unusually rapidly: he was promoted to major general at 37, colonel general at 47, and commanded the Ground Forces at 49. Mordvichev also held leadership positions in all four military districts formed in 2010, including commanding the Central Military District.
According to CNA, Alexander Chaiko largely follows Gerasimov's career path prior to his appointment as Chief of the General Staff. He served twice as Deputy Chief of the General Staff and commanded the 20th Guards Army and the Eastern Military District. At 55, Chaiko is at the ideal age for appointment within the next two to three years.
Sergei Kuzovlev currently commands the Moscow Military District, where the central military apparatus is located. As CNA notes, this district has historically served as a springboard to senior positions in the General Staff. Kuzovlev rose through the ranks of the 58th Guards Army and the 20th Guards Army, served in three military districts, and commanded troops in Chechnya, Syria, and Ukraine. At 58, he is considered an older candidate, but his appointment remains a possibility.
CNA also emphasizes that the war against Ukraine has dramatically accelerated personnel turbulence in the Russian army. The average tenure in senior command positions has decreased from 4.1 years in 2011–2021 to 1.4 years in 2022–2025. Analysts estimate that such frequent commander turnover may reduce the effectiveness of troop command and control.
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