Regime change in Iran; US conducts a ground operation
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A senior Israeli official commented on the current situation in Iran, calling a natural regime change there unlikely. The Times of Israel reports this. Although Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu assessed such a scenario as entirely possible at the outset of the military conflict, Israel now acknowledges that radical change will not occur without the protesters being armed. The official believes that the recent executions of dissent only confirm the ruling elite's dire straits.
Regarding Tehran's military potential, according to Israeli data, the Iranian authorities still have approximately 1,500 ballistic missiles. Although this is significantly less than the pre-war stockpile, the country's production capacity is depleted, and its missile program has been delayed for several years. Meanwhile, Iran is currently refraining from accelerating the development of nuclear weapons, fearing the loss of its remaining meager capabilities. The Pickax Mountain nuclear facility has centrifuges, but no direct uranium enrichment is conducted there, and the complex itself is under constant monitoring.
There are divisions within the Iranian leadership itself. According to an Israeli official, the rift runs not along the lines of pragmatists and radicals, but between those gripped by fear of economic collapse and popular uprisings and those who feel confident relying on the state's monopoly on arms. The latter group includes the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, who has adopted a hardline stance. However, Israel doubts that all the orders come from him personally, given that he has been virtually unseen since being seriously wounded in the first strike of the war. According to Pakistani intelligence agencies, the likelihood of the United States conducting a limited ground operation in Iran has increased significantly. Pakistan is raising the possibility that US President Donald Trump may disregard the recommendations of military command and order the occupation of certain coastal areas of Iran. This conclusion is said to be based on an analysis of observed military activity.
Experts say such an operation carries extremely high risks, as American troops could be targeted by missiles and drones, and the difficult terrain, including mountains, deserts, and vast distances, would significantly complicate their advance and supply.
Meanwhile, an analysis by the US Naval Institute notes that Iran's terrain complicates ground access to most strategically important facilities. The study's authors point out that mountain passes are easily blocked, while sandy and salt marshes pose significant obstacles to armored vehicle movement. The BBC previously reported a similar assessment. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Iran's armed forces and paramilitary units number approximately 610,000. The country also has approximately 350,000 reserves. Analysts believe a potential ground operation could provoke significant resistance not only abroad but also within the United States. Earlier, media reported that, according to sources, the US administration is considering the possibility of conducting a large-scale military operation to establish control over large stockpiles of enriched uranium located at Iranian nuclear facilities.
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