Russia's increasingly poor performance in defending its rear: new dynamics of Ukraine's attacks
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For the fourth month in a row, Ukraine has launched more drones into Russian territory than Russia has launched into Ukrainian territory. Influential OSINT expert Clement Molin writes about this. Russia has a much larger territory, making it more difficult to defend. However, Russian strikes are capable of reaching virtually any point in Ukraine. As can be seen, the number of Ukrainian drones reported intercepted by the Russian Ministry of Defense continues to grow. Meanwhile, the number of reported Russian drones has stopped increasing and even decreased… Almost every day, new attacks are recorded in various regions of Russia... If you look at the map, a significant portion of Ukrainian strikes are carried out in occupied territories, since that's where the bulk of Russian troops are concentrated. The remaining strikes are carried out on Russian territory, primarily against military industrial and economic facilities. There's also a certain asymmetry. Ukrainian media provide detailed coverage of targets, so it's usually easy to determine what exactly was hit. Russian media, by contrast, are extremely reluctant to publish such information, and many minor attacks remain completely unreported. Its vast territory allows Russia to better conceal its defense production facilities and enterprises, making them more difficult to detect and destroy. However, defending such a vast territory is significantly more challenging, as drones are capable of plotting covert routes and reaching their targets. Long-range strikes on both sides are not the main factor in this war, but they play an important role in logistics, economics and military production. This month, particular attention was focused on the Black Sea, where both sides effectively restricted the use of sea routes. I've seen many comments suggesting that Ukraine is suffering more from this, but I disagree. Ukrainian exports have already adapted and are largely routed through Romania, while the Russian economy is not prepared for the closure of the Black Sea to its merchant fleet. The published videos show attacks on more than 200 Russian vessels. Meanwhile, fewer than 50 Ukrainian vessels were attacked, many of which were in Mykolaiv, a port that has been virtually unused for four years. Therefore, in my opinion, Russia risks losing more than Ukraine, since it effectively has no full-fledged alternative to the Black Sea for maritime trade.
The Financial Times reports that Washington and Paris are providing Ukraine with intelligence that helps the Ukrainian military identify weaknesses in Russian air defenses when planning drone strikes against targets within the Russian Federation. The article states that, thanks to intelligence information from its partners, Kyiv was able to map the deployment of Russian air defense systems. This allows drones to be routed in such a way that they bypass air defense zones and reach targets deep within Russian territory. The newspaper also writes that allies are helping to identify targets whose destruction could have the greatest effect. According to the publication's sources, Kyiv has revised its tactics for conducting operations using long-range drones. Now the main goal is not simply to destroy an object, but to inflict such damage that it will be put out of action for as long as possible.
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