Gasoline riots in Russia: Putin's worst-case scenario begins
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Economist, member of the Ukrainian Society of Financial Analysts, and former member of the Council of the National Bank of Ukraine, Vitaliy Shapran, commented on reports that Ukraine has lost up to 40% of Russia's oil industry capacity.
"Reuters' information that up to 40% of capacity is out of commission could well be true. This is precisely why Russians are trying to flood the market with low-quality fuel, which damages engines," he emphasized in an interview with Glavred . The expert also noted that the fuel crisis has exposed the federal center's attitude toward the regions of the Russian Federation.
"We see that Russia has begun diverting all gasoline and diesel fuel to Moscow, leaving the regions with either low-quality fuel or essentially asking them to remain silent and not comment on the situation. This kind of federal egotism is deeply irritating to the regions. Previously, this anger existed primarily at the level of regional finance ministries and individual officials, who saw their money being simply taken away. Now it has spread to the population. This is a very dangerous thing for Russia, because there's practically nothing to suppress serious uprisings in the regions right now. All resources are being thrown into the war. We have the National Guard and the police, but in the event of large-scale protests like Prigozhin's rebellion, these resources may simply not be enough," Shapran added. Political and economic expert Taras Zagorodniy believes that the detention of vessels belonging to the so-called Russian "shadow fleet" could significantly complicate the supply of Russian oil to foreign markets.
In his opinion, if European countries join in on such measures, this could lead to serious economic consequences for Russia, including a noticeable reduction in export volumes and significant financial losses.
Zagorodniy noted that key Russian oil shipping routes pass through the Baltic and Black Seas. Therefore, even a temporary halt to tankers under the pretext of environmental, technical, or other inspections could disrupt supply chains and significantly slow oil exports.
“The oil market's developments are already impacting not only the Russian economy but also the financing of the war. For example, Russia is already forced to cut spending on weapons production. This is already evident in the arrears of Russian defense industry enterprises—their payments were cut back in the middle of last year.
All of this will inevitably impact Russia's defense budget, as funding will become increasingly scarce. Even at the start of 2026, it's clear that Russia faces greater problems than it did last year, when the first quarter of 2025 was barely manageable thanks to oil prices still remaining relatively high”, he added.
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