The war in Iran brought the Kremlin billions of dollars, but Ukraine is taking them back
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The war between Iran and the United States, which led to a sharp rise in global oil prices , temporarily brought Russia over €13 billion in additional revenue. However, the economic impact of the oil boom was largely offset by Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries, which led to fuel shortages, accelerated inflation, and a growing budget deficit, according to an analysis by the publication Welt, citing research by the Bruegel think tank.
According to Bruegel's calculations, Russia received approximately 1.18 trillion rubles or approximately €13.5 billion in additional revenue from oil and gas exports between March and June 2026. This was driven by a sharp rise in global energy prices amid military conflict in the Middle East and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz.
Analysts note that these excess profits amount to approximately 0.5% of Russia's GDP. However, even they were unable to offset the overall decline in oil revenues compared to last year. Carnegie Center expert Sergei Vakulenko agreed with Bruegel's assessments, noting that they reflect the real situation.
Despite a temporary improvement in revenues, Russia's budget problems are only worsening. According to the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW), the federal budget deficit reached six trillion rubles, or 2.6% of GDP, in the first five months of 2026 and could significantly exceed the planned level by the end of the year.
One of the main reasons for the deteriorating situation is the regular attacks by Ukrainian drones on Russian oil refineries. Experts estimate that a significant portion of production capacity has already been disabled.
Energy market expert Mikhail Krutikhin estimates that by mid-June, approximately 40% of diesel fuel production capacity and up to 60% of gasoline production capacity were damaged. Against this backdrop, Russia was forced to temporarily restrict the export of gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel, increase fuel imports, and even allow the sale of lower-quality fuel on the domestic market.
According to Meduza, since the beginning of the year, gasoline trade volumes in Russia have fallen by almost half, while prices have risen by approximately 46%.
Economists note that rising fuel prices are fueling inflation, limiting the Russian Central Bank's ability to lower interest rates, and dampening investment activity. At the same time, the strong ruble and problems with oil refining are reducing the state budget's ruble revenues, despite high global oil prices.
According to The Atlantic, drones have turned Ukraine into a superpower . Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen acknowledged that Ukraine now produces weapons "faster and cheaper" than anywhere else in Europe.
At the same time, Bild writes that the preparation of long-range strikes by Ukrainian drones on Russian territory is significantly more complex and extensive than their actual launch.
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