Ukrainian Forces intensified counterattacks in Donbas; they broke through to Novoselivka area

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The Ukrainian Armed Forces have intensified counterattacks near Kostiantynivka and are attempting to retake positions within the city itself, according to the Russian Z-channel "Rybar" in its October 29 report. It claims that Ukrainian assault groups have entered the destroyed buildings of the Novoselivka district and reached the immediate approaches to the Pervomayskyi microdistrict. "The enemy, taking advantage of its local superiority in the ' small sky , ' is conducting counterattacks to retake its positions in the city," writes Rybar. He attributes the Ukrainian Armed Forces' advance to the advantage of Ukrainian drones in this area.
The report's author sees another problem for Russian troops north of Rusyn Yar. There, the Ukrainian Armed Forces maintain positions that prevent the Russians from developing an offensive on the flank. Supply routes at the junction of the Russian "South" and "Center" groups remain at risk of counterattacks. "Rybar" is one of the most influential Russian military-analytical Telegram channels with a Z-focus, created in 2018 by Mikhail Zvinchuk, a former employee of the Russian Ministry of Defense press service. The channel's audience exceeds 1.5 million subscribers. In recent months, the Russian offensive in Donbas has been facing a number of serious operational, tactical, and logistical challenges, significantly slowing its pace and resulting in record casualties. According to expert analysis, including by the Institute for the Study of War, the average speed of Russian troop advance has dropped to fractions of a square kilometer per day.
October marked the first month in which the declared strategic goal of eliminating 50,000 Russians monthly was actually achieved. According to its results, the Russian Armed Forces lost approximately 54,000 soldiers killed and wounded. This is an absolute record for the entire period of a full-scale war.
Deliberately false Russian claims of control over Ukrainian territories could complicate negotiations to end the war and become grounds for accusations against Kyiv of violating a potential ceasefire, warned French OSINT analyst Clément Molin . According to the analyst, Russian maps show a significantly larger zone of Russian military control than the one it actually holds. Among the major settlements that Moscow claims to control, Molen named Kupyansk, Liman, Konstantinovka, Dobropolye, and Orekhov. Molen suggests that Russia could demand recognition of the line of control marked on its maps. If a ceasefire is concluded based on this data rather than the actual troop positions, Moscow could potentially accuse Ukraine of shelling Russian units in territories it does not actually control. It's worth noting that this is his personal assumption, not the Kremlin's official plan. However, he believes that this factor could indeed complicate the negotiations and become a tool for pressuring Kyiv during the peace process.

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