Russians mass forces to cross Dnipro River to take over West Ukraine

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Kyiv plans to allocate 1 billion hryvnias or $22 million to water crossings over the River Dnipro which bisects the ‌city, Mayor Vitali Klitschko said, after a spate of Russian attacks on bridges.

Russia has disrupted transport for Kyiv residents by hitting bridges this month, part of a significant step up in drone and missile strikes on ⁠logistics in and around the Ukrainian capital in recent months. Klitschko said on Telegram that ⁠the city's defence council had discussed a "project to build combined water crossings over the River Dnipro and the access roads leading to them." Water crossings come in various forms, including pontoons, fords and other low-lying structures that enable people ⁠and vehicles to cross. Russian forces are also already exploiting the ceasefire around Oleshky that was supposed to provide desperately needed humanitarian relief to strengthen their positions and prepare for another offensive across the Dnipro River.

Russian commanders have intensified military preparations around Kherson, constructing fortifications, covering roads with protective netting and transferring additional soldiers, ammunition and supplies into frontline settlements, RFU News says. This confirms that Moscow uses the ceasefire to improve its military position before hostilities resume, which is hardly surprising for Ukrainian commanders. The temporary ceasefire was negotiated to address the humanitarian catastrophe in Russian-controlled Oleshky, where around three thousand Ukrainian civilians remain trapped without reliable access to food, drinking water, or electricity. The Dnipro River separates them from Ukrainian-controlled territory, while dangerous roads and Russian military positions prevented any evacuation. Ukrainian officials reported that the first thirty hours passed without violations, as the agreement subsequently expanded across the wider Kherson region. The main evacuation is expected on October Thirtieth, with civilians offered routes toward Ukrainian-controlled territory or Russian-held areas, while residents in the city of Kherson briefly experienced something resembling normal life, with streets filled with people who had spent years living under constant threat of Russian FPV drone operators hunting them down. But behind this welcome humanitarian development, Ukrainian officials identified a growing military danger, as Russia's accumulation of supplies and reinforcements supports renewed attempts to infiltrate Ukrainian positions across the Dnipro, especially when autumn weather makes the situation particularly unpredictable, RFU News says.

Heavy rain, fog, and low cloud cover can reduce visibility and complicate Ukrainian drone surveillance, potentially allowing Russian assault groups to approach the river unnoticed. Even without immediately attempting a massive amphibious offensive, Russian commanders could exploit temporary gaps in observation to send small infiltration groups across the water. They can establish successful crossings for reinforcements and start establishing reliable supply routes to sustain bridgeheads, which is a danger Ukrainian commanders cannot ignore. At the same time, this raises a much larger question about any future peace deal, as the Oleshky arrangement is a localized humanitarian ceasefire, not a comprehensive peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, RFU News says. However, Ukrainian officials see it as a warning of what could happen if a nationwide ceasefire were imposed without credible security guarantees. Under such an agreement, Russia could rebuild depleted formations, accumulate ammunition and equipment, strengthen fortifications and prepare new offensives while presenting these activities as defensive measures.
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