Russia is destabilized and chaos is beginning; Ukraine and its allies are striking harder at Moscow
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Russia is trying to force Ukraine's surrender through intensified airstrikes on shopping malls, power plants, and ports. However, Ukraine has one fundamental advantage: assistance from its allies to ensure economic stability and military logistics. The Kremlin, in turn, lacks such support, and this unbalanced geopolitical situation offsets Russia's military advantage, writes The Wall Street Journal .
Western officials say this has become a key driver of Russia's expanding campaign of sabotage, hacking, and other hybrid attacks aimed at intimidating European leaders and voters.
As the WSJ writes, Russia is paying the price for its own war at a time when its economy is under pressure from Ukrainian strikes and Western sanctions. Moscow's two closest allies, Iran and North Korea, are devastated. China is taking advantage of Russia's predicament to negotiate lower oil and gas prices, and is facing its own economic difficulties. Russia is grappling with a full-scale fuel crisis, as Ukrainian drones have disabled more than a third of the country's oil refining capacity. Meanwhile, gas stations in Ukraine are operating as usual thanks to fuel imports from Europe – despite the fact that Ukraine's own oil refineries were subjected to massive bombings back in 2022.
Additionally, the Ukrainian military operates logistics hubs in countries such as Poland, Germany, and Romania, while Ukrainian defense companies have established production lines across Europe, including a ballistic missile fuel plant being built in Denmark.
"With the exception of Belarus and North Korea, none of Russia's neighbors, including its official defense allies in Central Asia, openly assists its military operations. Even Belarus has recently been careful not to provoke new sanctions from the West or a military response from Ukraine," the publication emphasizes.
From the Kremlin's perspective, the situation is unbearable: NATO countries are launching strategic attacks on the Russian economy and military potential – and yet bear virtually no responsibility for it.
"There is an asymmetry in Russia's ability to damage the West and make it bear the costs of supporting Ukraine," said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia-Eurasia Center in Berlin.
Meanwhile, Moscow lacks its own ally that could strike NATO and receive retaliatory strikes. Iran and the Yemeni Houthis are the closest analogs, but they have their own priorities, focused on the Middle East, that only partially overlap with Moscow's, and they have limited ability to influence European calculations. "We see that, even in the face of very significant resistance from Ukraine, Russia is escalating its hybrid activities in Europe and its risk appetite is growing," a senior NATO official warned. The view that Russia must strike military and logistical targets in European countries to win the war is gaining ground in Moscow, said expert Hanna Notte.
"There are hawks on the Russian side who have long been saying that Russia is fighting with one hand behind its back. These voices are becoming louder and will only get louder. The key question is: how far will Russia go? How much will it step up its game to deal with this problem?" she says.
Moscow's next escalation could be a limited, one-off strike – possibly using captured Ukrainian drones and missiles – against one or two logistics facilities involved in aiding Ukraine in Europe, some officials warn.
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