Gerasimov faces resignation; Russian military elite is undergoing a serious shake-up
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While 70-year-old Valery Gerasimov continues to hold the post of Chief of the General Staff, the war is shaping a new generation of generals and accelerating command changes. However, the personnel turnover could pose a new problem for the Kremlin: frequent commander turnover deprives them of time to gain experience, build relationships, and fully manage their troops, writes War on the Rocks. The Russian military elite is undergoing a significant restructuring caused by the war in Ukraine. Although Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov , now 70, continues to hold the key post, the system for promoting generals is gradually changing.
Researchers at the American think tank CNA analyzed the career trajectories of 125 high-ranking Russian commanders and concluded that the war significantly accelerated personnel turnover. This was particularly noticeable at the level of military district commanders: their average tenure decreased from 2.9 years to approximately one year.
The General Staff, however, was effectively an exception to this process. Since the beginning of the war, its leadership has undergone virtually no changes.
"Wartime has led to more rapid turnover of commanders at the operational level," the study's authors write.
This system is increasingly dependent on the specific situation at the front, rather than on a pre-established career model.
The authors identify two main models of advancement. The first is operational, through the command of armies and military districts. The second is associated with highly specialized structures—the navy, the Strategic Missile Forces, the Aerospace Forces, and other branches of the armed forces.
For future commanders, real combat experience is especially important. The Syrian campaign has already created a distinct career path for several generals, and the war in Ukraine has created yet another.
At the same time, the personnel system has changed significantly since 2022. Command terms are being shortened, generals are being moved between positions more frequently, and appointments are often determined by current operational needs.
Constant rotation can have a negative effect. A new commander may simply not have time to navigate the vast military bureaucracy before his next assignment.
Researchers attempted to identify the generals who are most likely to occupy key positions in the coming years.
Among Gerasimov's potential successors, they highlight Colonel General Alexander Chaiko and Ground Forces Commander Andrei Mordvichev . The latter stands out for his rapid advancement: he became a major general at age 37 and commander of the Ground Forces at age 49. It is the young generals with war experience who gradually gain an advantage over the officers of the old school. The career path of the future Chief of the General Staff will likely differ from the standard models. This position typically requires an unusually broad range of experience—both commanding troops and working in the central office.
Alexander Chaiko meets both criteria. He commanded the army and the Eastern Military District, served in three military districts, led Russian forces in Syria several times, and became Commander-in-Chief of the Aerospace Forces in May 2026.
Another possible candidate is Andrei Mordvichev. His rapid career may indicate he's preparing for a higher position. If Gerasimov leaves in the coming years, Mordvichev could become one of the youngest Chiefs of the General Staff in modern Russian history. Personnel rotation has another side to it. Military district commanders now serve in their positions for about a year, significantly shorter than their pre-war tenures.
Frequent reshuffles can make it difficult for generals to build strong working relationships, gain management experience, and build trust within subordinate structures.
"A rapid change of commanders can negatively impact their ability to perform their duties," the authors argue.
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