Ukraine’s new ballistic missiles force Russia to choose: bomb Kyiv or defend Moscow
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It's possible Ukrainian forces launched a new type of ballistic missile at Moscow on 1 July. The apparent Ukrainian missile, which air defenses reportedly shot down over the Russian capital, is a harbinger of things to come, Euromaidan Press says.
Ukraine is developing several new ballistic missiles with the range to reach Moscow, 500 km from the border with Ukraine. If and when they begin raining down on Russian cities, gas facilities, factories and refineries, Russia may have to change the way it fights.
The Russians might have to aim their best S-400 air defense batteries into the sky, instead of aiming them at the ground. For Ukraine, that could mean some respite from relentless Russian missile strikes. After all, S-400s doubling as surface-to-surface munitions are in the mix most nights when Russia bombards Ukraine.
"Ballistic missiles force a different problem on Russia," wrote Michael Bohnert, an analyst for California think tank RAND.
The coming shift comes down to speed. Where one-way attack drones and many cruise missiles are slow—often motoring along at just a few hundred kilometers an hour—and are thus fairly easy to shoot down, ballistic missiles are fast. They're all supersonic, traveling at least the speed of sound. Heavier ballistic missiles may even be hypersonic. That is, capable of reaching five times the speed of sound.
The same air defenses that swat down incoming drones can't stop ballistic missiles. Only the best air defenses stand any chance of hitting an incoming ballistic missile. Ukraine's main defense against Russian ballistic missiles is its six or so US-made Patriot batteries; for Russia, the main defense against the coming Ukrainian ballistics will be the roughly 50 S-400 batteries.
Keenly aware of the deep strike dynamics, the Russians are pivoting away from easy-to-kill drones toward hard-to-kill ballistics. This is a serious problem for Ukrainian air defenses, which are desperately short of missiles for their Patriot batteries owing to the Americans' reluctance to sell or donate missiles. US forces are struggling with their own air defense shortfalls resulting from the on-again, off-again war with Iran.
In one wave of Russian attacks on 6 July, Ukrainian air defenses shot down 326 out of 351 incoming Geran drones and 37 of 39 incoming subsonic cruise missiles. But the Russians also launched six supersonic anti-ship missiles and 23 ballistic missiles. Every single one got through, wreaking havoc across Kyiv. At least 22 people died in the capital and the surrounding oblast, and 90 more were injured. At present, Ukraine can't match these strikes. Yes, the Ukrainians can launch lots of one-way attack drones. In fact, far more drones than Russia can launch. And the Ukrainians also have a reliable subsonic cruise missile in the form of the Fire Point FP-5. But Ukraine doesn't yet have a fully operational ballistic missile in the class of the Russian Iskander or S-400. Every month, Russian industry produces approximately 40 missiles for S-400s batteries. If Ukraine can fling a few dozen FP-9s or similar missiles at Russian targets every month, Russia would have to devote its entire S-400 capability to air defense just to blunt the bombardment. After all, it usually takes several missiles in the class of a Patriot or S-400 to hit one incoming ballistic missile.
"Russia would have to choose," Bohnert wrote. Either "keep using the S-400 as a strike weapon and accept that hardened targets get hit, or return the system to its designed air-defense role."
If the Russians choose protection, they'll have somewhat fewer ballistic missiles to fling at Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities. That should take some pressure off Ukraine's own overstretched air defenses.
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