Newly mobilized troops in Russia threaten to deploy weapons against the Kremlin
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The authorities of the aggressor country are considering a new wave of mobilization after the September State Duma elections, The Wall Street Journal reports , citing sources in the US administration. According to the publication, the reason was a decrease in the influx of contract soldiers, which complicates the Kremlin's plans for a further offensive in Ukraine and the capture of the entire territory of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
As the WSJ notes, unlike the first wave of mobilization, the new conscription could include Russians with minimal military training or those who are unwilling to participate in combat at all. Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, also spoke about the possibility of such a decision. He believes that if Vladimir Putin doesn't abandon his goal of fully occupying Donbas, "he may have no choice but to declare mobilization." The publication notes, however, that the political consequences of such a decision could be very painful for the Kremlin. Some Russians are already declaring their readiness to resist mobilization. For example, 53-year-old reserve officer Dmitry Rogin told the newspaper: "As soon as they give me a weapon, I will shoot those who mobilized me."
"Further mobilization would help Russia prolong the war but probably wouldn't fundamentally alter its outcome," John Hardie, deputy director, Russia Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), told Newsweek.
However, a draft the size that Zelensky warned of would be a major strategic concern for Ukraine and its Western allies, said Yuriy Boyechko, CEO of Hope for Ukraine, which helps communities on the war's front line.
"Sheer numbers allow Moscow to sustain a protracted war of attrition, absorb heavy front line losses, and fortify defensive positions against future counteroffensives," he told Newsweek.
Former Russian president Dmitri Medvedev denied mobilization was imminent, saying that 200,000 volunteers had signed contracts to serve in its armed forces in the first half the year. Russia's parliamentary elections on September 18-20 will be choreographed in favor of the ruling United Russia party in a result Putin will use as a mandate to push the militarization of society for a long-term war that shows no signs of ending. Rumors of a new post-election draft have abounded all summer as the Kremlin seeks to replenish casualties, which Zelensky said ahead of his White House meeting with Donald Trump, numbered 225,500 losses this year alone, including 131,000 killed.
"If Putin does decide to mobilize again, it would mean he has recognized the war is on a losing trajectory but has opted to double down rather than moderate his demands," said Hardie from the FDD, a Washington, DC think tank.
"Putin has thus far avoided this option because it carries significant costs and risks. It would trigger another mass exodus from the country and could spark domestic unrest against an increasingly unpopular war," he added.
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