Crushing of Russian division; Putin's army lost more territory than it captured

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From September 1 to October 16 of this year, Russian occupiers lost control of 112 square kilometers of territory. Meanwhile, since the beginning of the year, the Russian army has captured approximately 100 square kilometers, according to the Institute for the Study of War.
In particular, the commander of the Third Army Corps of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Brigadier General Andriy Biletsky, stated that Ukraine's Operation Vivaldi resulted in significant losses in the Russian 144th Motorized Rifle Division.
He emphasized that this military group had effectively ceased to exist as an organized military force. Therefore, Russia would now have to restore the division's combat capability before conducting further offensive operations in the Liman direction. Such a move would place additional strain on the enemy's replenishment system. At the same time, ISW assessed that Operation Vivaldi had thwarted the Russian command's plans to encircle Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk Oblast's "fortress belt" from the north. Ukrainian fighters reached the Zherebets River, after which the front line shortened, and defenses were established at more advantageous positions, where there was a greater concentration of infantry and more favorable positions for the use of UAVs and artillery. Therefore, to resume the offensive toward Liman, the Russians will have to cross the river again.
According to analysts, the Russian command intended to bypass Liman via Svyatogorsk, after which it would join up in the Barvinkove area of the Kharkiv region with another group, which was supposed to advance from the southwest through the Dobropillya direction. However, the Ukrainian operation thwarted this plan, forcing the Russian army to resort to frontal attacks east of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, where Ukrainian defenders had prepared strong defensive positions. ISW believes that such an offensive would be significantly more difficult for the Russians and would result in greater losses.
Experts also noted an increase in Russian combat losses since the summer of 2026. According to their data, over the course of several months, the Russian invaders lost more than 40,000 soldiers killed and wounded.
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