Russia resorted to provocations in space; satellite providing intelligence to Ukraine targeted
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The Russian military satellite Cosmos-2612 approached the commercial ICEYE-X36 satellite to a critical distance of 26 meters, according to orbital monitoring data. ICEYE provides radar images of Earth used by Ukraine for reconnaissance, so the close approach has raised concerns among Western analysts. According to satellitemap.space, on October 19 at 02:06 UTC, the Russian satellite was approximately 640 meters behind ICEYE-X36 and two kilometers above it. A few hours later, at 16:07 UTC, the distance between the two satellites had decreased to 26 meters. Experts point out that such a close approach is unusual for routine satellite activity.
The potential threat posed by the Russian satellite is discussed in a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, based on commercial space situational awareness data. The center's analysts emphasize that, given Russia's history of orbital weapons testing, it can be assumed that Cosmos-2612 could pose a threat to a commercial satellite.
According to CSIS, in late September 2026, Kosmos-2612 began a series of maneuvers that allowed it to return to the same orbital plane as ICEYE-X36 and then approach its altitude. On October 12, the Russian spacecraft adjusted its velocity by approximately 27.9 meters per second, adjusting its orbit to an altitude of approximately 555 kilometers—almost the same as ICEYE-X36. According to the latest data from satellitemap.space, Kosmos-2612 is currently at an altitude of approximately 547 kilometers above Earth, while ICEYE-X36 is at an altitude of approximately 545 kilometers.
CSIS also recalled that in April 2026, Russia launched six Cosmos satellites—numbered 2609 to 2614—into low Earth orbit. Over the course of a month, five of them performed energy-intensive maneuvers that changed their orbital inclination to allow ICEYE to orbit the Earth. Several of these satellites approached the commercial spacecraft as early as May 2026, with the closest, Cosmos-2609, coming within 2.5 kilometers on May 26. Maneuvering a satellite in low Earth orbit into a plane converging with another satellite requires significant fuel expenditure—a limited resource onboard. This maneuver is not included in the standard mission profile of most satellites, including those operating in broadband communications or Earth remote sensing. A satellite placed in an orbit converging with another satellite's plane allows it to quickly and efficiently transition to rendezvous operations. The report states that Russia has publicly stated that it may consider commercial satellites supporting Ukraine as legitimate military targets. The center's analysts believe that hostile activity near Western satellites fits into a broader pattern of aggressive "gray" actions by Russia against US and European interests, including cyberattacks, jamming satellite navigation signals, and sabotage, including against undersea cables.
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