Ukraine completely closes Crimea's sky for the first time during a war

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Crimea was the first place Russian leader Vladimir Putin seized when he initially invaded Ukraine in 2014. An estimated 1 million Russian troops and civilians have poured into the territory to make it more Russian and less Ukrainian. With the Russian influx, and the departure of many Ukrainians, Crimea's population is now estimated at around 2.5 million.

Ukraine has vowed to get Crimea back and carried out periodic drone strikes in recent years, with limited effect. But the campaign has ramped up dramatically in the past couple months. For the first time in twelve years, Ukraine has established a consistent drone presence over Crimea, creating a situation that would have been almost unthinkable only one year ago. According to Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces, the four hundred and fourteenth Brigade Birds of Magyar carried out more than seven thousand missions over the summer as part of the Crimean Operation, with its drones repeatedly flying dozens of kilometers across the peninsula toward Russian targets, RFU News says. The scale of these operations is what makes the development so important, because Ukrainian drones are returning often enough to maintain constant pressure across Crimea. Russian forces now have to prepare for repeated attacks, turning Ukrainian drone activity over the peninsula into a regular occurrence of the battlefield.

Ukraine achieved this by first attacking the systems Russia uses to detect and shoot down incoming drones. In late August, Ukrainian forces struck a Nebo-SV radar, elements of a P-eighteen radar, and communications equipment near Olenivka, while a relay station near Frunze and a Russian military training center in Sevastopol were also hit. These systems help Russia detect incoming drones, track their route, and guide nearby air-defense units toward them before they can reach their targets. Just days later, Ukrainian strikes destroyed a Russian Pantsir-S-one air-defense system near Kerch, removing one of the weapons meant to intercept drones and missiles at shorter ranges. Losing these systems creates a much bigger problem than the loss of the equipment itself, because strikes on radars, communications equipment, and air-defense launchers open gaps throughout Russia’s defensive network RFU News says. Each new gap gives later waves of Ukrainian drones a better chance of reaching more valuable targets deeper inside Crimea. The real problem for Russia is that Ukraine keeps coming back before the damage from earlier strikes can be fully repaired. Replacing lost systems, relocating surviving aircraft, and reinforcing exposed bases all take time, giving Ukraine another window to strike before Russia can restore the same level of protection. Another Ukrainian attack can then force commanders to move resources again and restart parts of the recovery process, RFU News says. The October seventh strike near Dzhankoi showed that even these attempts to strengthen local defenses can be targeted, as Ukrainian forces hit a Russian mobile fire group, killing one serviceman and wounding another. Russia deploys these groups to hunt low-flying drones that slip past larger air-defense systems, while Ukraine can now target those smaller defensive units as well, making it harder for Russia to close the gaps left by earlier strikes. One weakness is repaired, another area needs more protection, and the pressure keeps moving across the peninsula.



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