Gerasimov learned too late about Ukrainian Forces' breakthrough near Liman; Putin is angry with him
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The success of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Liman sector was due not only to the actions on the ground but also to the strict observance of operational secrecy within the Ukrainian Armed Forces. OSINT researcher Clément Molin writes that there was virtually no public comment or media attention surrounding the operation, which helped conceal the scale of the events from the Russian command. He assessed that Russian units in this sector were weak, and the 20th Combined Arms Army lacked sufficient reserves that could be quickly activated. Had the Russian high command grasped the scale of Ukrainian operations in time, it could have redeployed an airborne brigade, marines, or other combat-ready units, as had already happened in the south this year.
"Operational security was maintained very meticulously, with virtually no comment on the situation and no media attention. Why is this important? Because we knew the Russian forces there were weak," Molen wrote. He points to a systemic problem in the Russian army: the distortion of information along the chain of command. According to the analyst, even if data reaches battalion or regiment headquarters, there's no guarantee it will be passed on to army headquarters and then to Valery Gerasimov's level aqnd Putin is angry with him. "Lying is a systematic phenomenon in the Russian army," Molen noted. He compared the situation to how pro-Russian maps and channels responded to events on other frontlines. According to him, when a serious problem occurs somewhere, such sources usually quickly begin warning about it because they receive information from the Russian command. In the Liman sector, according to Molen, this didn't happen for a long time. "I spent some time reviewing their reports on Lyman and, oddly enough, I didn't find anything I had access to at the same time. It's curious because when something fishy happens somewhere, they always react," he wrote. Only recently, he says, have Russian and pro-Russian cartographers like Divgen, "Rybar," Radov, and others begun updating their maps. This means that the public Russian picture of the front has long lagged behind reality, and some information may simply not have reached the top or may have been deliberately suppressed. Molin said that after four months of counteroffensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Liman sector, the Ukrainian 3rd Army Corps managed to cut off the Russian salient north of Liman and liberate over 200 square kilometers of territory. He estimates this to be one of Ukraine's most important victories of 2026, potentially pushing back the Russian offensive in northern Donbas. "After four months of the Liman counteroffensive, the Ukrainian 3rd Army Corps managed to cut off the Russian salient north of Liman and liberate more than 200 square kilometers of territory," Molen wrote. According to him, the significance of the operation is due not only to the size of the liberated territory but also to its geography. Heavy fighting had already taken place in this area in May 2022, September 2022, and May 2025. At that time, after two years of heavy losses, Russia managed to capture several key Ukrainian positions.
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