Russian airspace under Ukrainian control: 32 airports were temporarily closed daily due to drones
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Ukraine plans to increase its drone presence near Russian airports to force their closure as part of its efforts to undermine the Russian economy and pressure Moscow to end the war. The Wall Street Journal explains how this is possible and whether it will work with the Kremlin.
On Tuesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned airlines that Russian airspace is "becoming completely unsafe." According to the Ukrainian military, his comments reflect a plan to deploy so many drones near Russian airports that temporary closures will turn into a complete grounding of flights.
"This is no longer just a repetition of isolated, sporadic emergency alerts; it's a shift to sustained pressure aimed at paralyzing civilian air traffic in the European part of the Russian Federation," Serhiy Bratchuk, a spokesman for the Southern Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, told the WSJ. Ukraine has promised to avoid attacks on passenger aircraft and the loss of civilian lives. Instead, its plan is to expand the so-called "Operation Carpet," which involves flying drones near Russian airports, forcing air traffic controllers to suspend takeoffs and landings.
Although Western countries suspended direct air service to Russia following the invasion, airlines from many Middle Eastern and Asian countries continue to fly to the country. The lack of competition from the US and Europe has proven to be an advantage for them, offsetting the risk of Ukrainian drone attacks. In August, the number of Ukrainian drones crossing into Russian airspace, which the country has left open to civilian aircraft, reached a new peak of about 16,000, according to aviation security company Osprey Flight Solutions: "According to aviation security experts, the sheer number of drones and the frantic activity of Russian air defense systems attempting to shoot them down are creating growing risks for civilian aircraft. The widespread use of GPS spoofing (transmitting false GPS signals to divert drones) by air defense systems could disorient civilian air traffic."
According to the WSJ, on average, 32 airports in Russia, including those near Moscow and St. Petersburg, were temporarily closed daily in August due to the proximity of drones.
Other airlines are relying on private security companies to help determine flight routes, altitudes, and times of day to mitigate risks and cope with the growing disruptions to Russian air traffic.
Meanwhile, following Zelenskyy's comments, Turkish airline Pegasus canceled several flights to Russia, citing "technical and operational reasons." The following day, UAE airline Flydubai followed suit, announcing it was adjusting its schedule and routes due to the "changing situation in the region."
"According to Flightradar24, a specialized company, domestic and international air carriers have been canceling an average of 86 flights per day since September 1," the WSJ writes.
Instead, Russia is using a limited safety protocol it calls "carpet" restrictions, as opposed to the internationally accepted "broad" ban, which involves formally closing airspace. Russia's civil aviation regulator publishes information about temporary airspace closures on messaging platforms like Telegram and the state-backed Max, refusing to issue formal notices to pilots. "The airspace situation is becoming increasingly complex. It's probably only a matter of time before, statistically, another catastrophic event occurs in and around this conflict zone. The bottom line is, if you do what Russia does, it results in downed aircraft," said Matt Borie, Osprey's chief intelligence officer.
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