Ukraine and Russia are caught in a "spiral" of attacks on the threshold of a very difficult winter
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Russia and Ukraine have found themselves in a new spiral of mutual attacks, increasingly affecting civilians. Both sides are attacking warehouses, energy and fuel infrastructure, ports, and logistics facilities far from the front lines.
According to The New York Times , the air war has intensified significantly in recent months. Russia and Ukraine are using an ever-expanding arsenal of missiles and drones in an attempt to inflict economic damage on the other and force concessions.
At the same time, the situation at the front remained virtually unchanged, and diplomatic efforts to end the war have effectively reached a dead end. "It's a question of how much suffering Russia can take compared to Ukraine – and Russia can take a lot of suffering," said military expert Rob Lee. The new wave of mutual attacks intensified particularly after Ukraine launched a large-scale campaign of strikes against Russian targets in late June. Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated at the time that the goal was to "force them to stop the war."
Since then, Ukrainian long-range drones have struck more than 30 warehouses of major online retailers in Russia. The strikes disrupted logistics, damaged businesses, and resulted in the deaths of warehouse workers.
Russian oil refineries and fuel infrastructure have become a separate issue. Last month, according to some estimates, approximately 70% of Russian gas stations experienced gasoline or diesel fuel shortages.
Ukrainian attacks have also affected Russian infrastructure in the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea. This is creating problems for Russian agricultural exports and complicating logistics in occupied Crimea.
At the same time, experts note that there is no reason yet to predict Russia's inevitable economic collapse. Nevertheless, the war is increasingly felt within the country, and the number of Russian civilian casualties as a result of the strikes has risen to the highest level since the start of the full-scale war.
After the end of the 40-day Ukrainian campaign, Vladimir Putin declared that Kyiv had opened a "Pandora's box" and would pay for attacks on Russian economic targets.
Russia has responded by intensifying strikes against Ukraine. Ballistic and hypersonic missiles are increasingly attacking Ukrainian cities, while Ukrainian air defenses are facing a shortage of Patriot interceptor missiles.
An additional threat is posed by new Russian jet-powered drones, capable of reaching speeds in excess of 600 km/h. They are used for both reconnaissance and strikes.
The consequences for Ukraine are particularly tangible in the civilian and economic spheres. Russian strikes on ports in the Odesa region threaten Ukrainian exports of grain and other agricultural products.
Over the past six months, Russian attacks have damaged or destroyed more than 300 Ukrainian gas stations. Warehouses, shopping centers, and other logistics facilities have also been damaged. According to the Ukrainian Publishing Association, approximately 13 million books have been destroyed as a result of Russian strikes.
Analysts expect mutual attacks to continue and may intensify this winter. Russia has already warned of new strikes on Ukraine's energy sector. Vladimir Putin stated that he has ordered troops to launch "massive strikes against Ukraine's energy facilities." Experts do not rule out the possibility that water supplies could also be targeted.
Ukraine, for its part, continues to develop long-range weaponry. Specifically, Kyiv is working on its own ballistic missiles and claims they could be ready as early as this fall. If this happens, the war could escalate to a new level.
The Ukrainian president also warned airlines that Russian airspace was becoming dangerous due to Ukrainian drone attacks.
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