The "city war" between Iran and Iraq is repeated in attacks on Ukrainian Odessa and Russian Belgorod

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While the front line hasn't moved a kilometer for weeks, Moscow is once again relying not on trenches, but on its rear – power grids, ports, and residential areas. Experts draw a parallel with the "city war" between Iran and Iraq in the 1980s and explains why the current strikes on Odessa and Belgorod don't hasten the Kremlin's capitulation, but instead destroy the main myth that underpins Russia's willingness to fight indefinitely. We publish the author's opinions in the original language.

By the mid-1980s, trench warfare on land had become completely stuck in a decades-long "war of attrition"—the frontline remained stationary for years, and the cost of every meter was measured in tens of thousands of lives. Then Saddam Hussein attempted to achieve with missiles what tanks couldn't. Iraqi air forces and ballistic missiles struck Tehran and other Iranian cities, and Iran responded with its own Scud missiles against Baghdad. Both dictators were counting on the same thing: the civilian population would succumb to constant fear and would pressure their own government, demanding capitulation.

The most horrific moment came in the spring of 1988, when Iraq launched dozens of extended-range Al-Hussein missiles at Tehran, and the capital's population, fearing chemical warheads, fled en masse. Over the eight years of this war, thousands of civilians on both sides died, tens of thousands were wounded, and both capitals suffered severe destruction. And not a single capitulation occurred due to a broken will to resist.

The war ended in August 1988. Neither Tehran nor Baghdad broke under the missiles; what broke was the ability of both armies to continue the offensive.

We're seeing the same logic today. When the battles for Konstantinovka or Pokrovsk are measured in meters per week, costing thousands of lives, Moscow is once again seeking victory not in the trenches, but in the rear: through strikes on power substations, residential areas, and port infrastructure. The calculation is the same as Saddam's forty years ago: where tanks can't go, missiles will fly, and sooner or later, a society weary of the darkness and cold will force its government to capitulate.

But there's something that hasn't been seen in wars with Russia before—and that's precisely what's new in this war. For years, Russia enjoyed a virtual monopoly on attacks on civilian targets deep in the rear, while Ukraine could only respond in border areas with a few types of domestically produced long-range weapons. It was this asymmetry that gave the Kremlin a sense of complete impunity: they could destroy without fear of seeing the same thing in their own mirror. Today, this monopoly is ending—and ending faster than Moscow could have imagined even a year ago. This became especially evident on the night of August 9. Russia launched one of the largest strikes on Odessa this year, using ballistic, anti-ship, and anti-radar missiles, along with dozens of attack drones. Power infrastructure was damaged, residents of three city districts were left without power, and residential buildings were destroyed. That same night, Ukrainian drones launched a massive attack on Belgorod: fires broke out in several districts of the city, particularly in the city center, damaging high-rise buildings and private homes. This is no longer a war where only one side burns while the other watches from a safe distance. It's a mirror that, every night, returns to Russia the very image it for decades considered to be exclusively Ukrainian, and which, apparently, has taken the Kremlin by surprise precisely because of its recurrence.





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