Putin deploys unmarked Russian special forces to the Baltics; imminent military provocations

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Russia may attempt to test NATO's resolve and military capabilities in the coming years, and the threat is very real, according to former Supreme Allied Commander James Stavridis. He shared his analysis in a column for Bloomberg. According to him, Moscow will likely escalate and increase hybrid attacks on Europe: cyberattacks, sabotage against critical infrastructure, and then provocations using weapons that could "accidentally" end up in NATO countries. Stavridis also admits the possibility of continued nuclear blackmail and even the transfer of Russian nuclear weapons to Russia's western regions or Belarus. He cites the presence of unmarked Russian special forces in the Baltic states as one of the most radical and dangerous scenarios. According to the admiral, the Kremlin's primary goal is to intimidate European countries, divide NATO, and reduce its support for Ukraine. He also believes that the Alliance possesses significantly superior military capabilities. Stavridis called on the Alliance to prepare in advance for provocations from Russia, conduct large-scale exercises, and so on. He believes Moscow needs to clearly demonstrate that attacks on Alliance countries will be met with a proportionate response.

Meanwhile, Putin promised a "mirror" response to the seizure of Russian merchant ships. The Kremlin leader made this statement during Pacific Fleet exercises. Putin claims that some Western countries are allegedly "trying to restrict the movement of Russian merchant vessels in violation of maritime law." He called plans to seize Russian vessels "piracy and robbery." The head of the Kremlin promises to respond in kind to the seizure of Russian merchant ships, not only in the same waters, but "anywhere," including in the Pacific Ocean. The US and other Western countries are detaining and, by court order, arresting only vessels belonging to the so-called Russian "shadow fleet," which help Moscow evade sanctions imposed for its war in Ukraine. The exact number of vessels belonging to Russia's "shadow fleet" detained is not yet known, as they belong to different jurisdictions. In January 2026, the US seized the tankers Era and Lileo for transporting sanctioned oil. They were later sold for scrap metal.

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