Wars in Ukraine and Iran are merging into a mega-conflict and engulfing neutral countries
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The wars in Iran and Ukraine are increasingly intersecting and simultaneously expanding, engulfing more and more countries – even those that claim neutrality. This is what Fortune writes , analyzing the consequences of the "mega-conflict."
Recently, Ukraine attacked an Iranian cargo ship transporting military supplies between Iran and Russia via the Caspian Sea. A few days later, Iranian drones attacked liquefied natural gas tankers at a port on Egypt's Mediterranean coast, marking the first attack on the country during the war with Iran.
As Dan Alamariu, chief geopolitical strategist at Alpine Macro, notes, the attack in the Mediterranean could impact gas prices in Europe, shipping rates, and insurance costs. This comes amid Iran's demands that European countries hold Ukraine accountable for the attack on a vessel in the Caspian Sea. "The wars between Iran and Ukraine may be interconnected. Ukraine's attack in the Caspian Sea was followed a few days later by a fire on gas tankers in the Mediterranean. This may not be a coincidence; there is a risk of the two conflicts merging," the expert warned. Iran expert Hamidreza Azizi outlined several possible reasons for Ukraine's strike on the Iranian vessel.
One is that Ukraine wants to demonstrate its value as a partner to the United States. Another is that Israel and the United States asked Ukraine to pressure Iran on their behalf, fearing that any attacks on Iranian infrastructure would provoke retaliatory measures against their regional economic assets. A third interpretation is that Ukraine's attack was a response to Houthi rebel threats against ships in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
The Financial Times also believes that Ukraine's strike could have been a warning that Iran's Caspian coastline is under threat and could be used as leverage in negotiations with the US.
Former US Defense Secretary Mark Esper, who served in the first Trump administration, previously argued that the war with Iran should be internationalized to include America's allies in Asia and Europe, as well as countries bordering Iran, such as Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.
Energy expert Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of S&P Global, also said the war with Iran is expanding geographically and geopolitically.
"Think about all the seas – the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea, the Mediterranean, the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea, the Caspian Sea – they have all become arenas for an oil war," he said. For its part, Russia is also seeking to expand its geographic influence. In recent weeks, several drone crashes have occurred in Romania, and a Russian missile crashed in Poland, violating NATO airspace. The Centre for European Policy Analysis said the incidents showed Russia's "shadow war" against NATO was moving south.
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