SBU's 40-day operation against Russia: hellfire for Putin's regime
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On June 26, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced a 40-day campaign of strikes against Russian targets in an effort to force Putin to end the war.
Three weeks after the campaign began. The Guardian assessed what it represented, how successful it was, and how it would impact the future course of the war. Orysia Lutsevich, head of the Ukrainian Forum at the think tank Chatham House, sees this as an important metaphor aimed at Putin. "Zelensky is a master of narrative performance. I think this is a reference to the 40 days in purgatory, waiting to decide whether to go to hell or heaven. The message is, 'We already consider you dead. Now it's up to you to decide whether to save yourself or not,'" she says.
She also sees political significance in the campaign's length.
"The Duma [Russian parliament] elections are in September. Part of the idea is to send a message to Putin: his power is weakening when we do everything possible to ensure that the war affects, in particular, Moscow and St. Petersburg."
Phillips O'Brien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews, believes this is a psychological campaign and isn't expected to force Russia to capitulate. However, it is Ukraine's way of saying, "We can bring the war to you." "I think the main thing is the attempt to provoke an oil crisis in Russia. I think Zelenskyy is also trying to focus Ukrainians' attention on what Ukraine is doing on the battlefield, saying, 'We are acting dynamically and taking the initiative,'" he says. Although Zelenskyy did not initially state it directly, subsequent comments from Ukrainian officials indicated that the campaign included a "medium strike" strategy that severely disrupted Russia's main supply lines and a campaign of long-range strikes against Russian military-industrial facilities, oil refineries, shipping, and major cities.
Retired Australian General Mick Ryan describes it primarily as an "influence operation" designed to force Russia to end its invasion.
"This is a unified campaign of deep strikes against oil refineries, military installations and major cities, designed to push Moscow to end the war," he wrote. The increasing scale and intensity of the attacks shocked Moscow residents, who never expected the war to affect them so deeply.
In practice, Russians are now facing long lines at many gas stations. The impact is also noticeable in Russian-occupied Crimea, where attacks on key bridges and roads to the peninsula have led to power outages and a feeling of siege.
This is also generating political friction within Russia. Russians accuse the government of failing to create a comprehensive air defense system capable of adequately protecting private businesses and critical infrastructure.
Ukraine's success in taking the war to Russia—before and during the 40-day campaign—may have also contributed to the Trump administration's shift in attitude toward Ukraine and may have been the reason Trump allowed Kyiv to produce Patriot missiles. There has been public speculation that the campaign could include other large-scale military actions aimed at humiliating Putin and undermining his support, including against units considered key to maintaining Putin's regime. There are also suggestions that Ukraine may again try to recapture territory from Russia.
And despite the fact that the campaign is positioned as a 40-day one, Lutsevich believes that it will most likely not only continue, but possibly even intensify.
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