What to expect after polls close on Election Day

California at 8 o'clock tonight, but even before that, we could have an idea for what this year's election will start to look like as polls close across the country. Let's bring in Larry Gerstin now, political science professor emeritus at San Jose State University. Professor Gerstin, thanks so much for being here with us. Happy to be here. So let's talk about, of course, a number of races all across the country that have a lot of wide eyes on them. But first, in California, we expect this to be one of the largest turnouts for a midterm election in California history. What is driving so many people to the poll that is making this turnout expected to be so high? That turnout, James, as of now, is one million voters more at this time than we had four years ago. So we're talking about perhaps a 20 percent increase over 2022. It's more comparable to 2018. In 2018, of course, we had a reaction to the Trump administration. This time we have, again, reaction to the Trump administration. You know, the word for Democrats right now is enthusiasm. The word for Republicans right now is resignation. And those two are colliding on this election day. Let's talk about the billionaire's tax. Of course, Prop 40, one of the biggest pieces on the ballot here, and I think one of the items that got so much more attention than, say, some of the other candidates and actual races here. What is it about the billionaire's tax that has people debating so much? First of all, it's a tremendous amount of money. Over almost $400 million have been spent, about 90% of which has been designed to oppose Proposition 40. The idea, of course, is to bring in lots of money, perhaps $100 billion over five years from 5% tax on billionaires. Needless to say, billionaires and people of a lot of affluence are against it. But there's more than just the money at issue. The opponents suggest that this... Bill could really affect all kinds of expenditures such as education and other elements of the California budget if, in fact, it passes simply because a lot of them are going to move away. Proponents say that this is a lot of bluffing, that maybe this bill would really provide a lot of what California needs, $100 billion, most of which is intended for health care, could mean a lot. But the question is, is there the will to overturn the kind of process we have right now? There's been several headlines in the last week alone. Suggesting that California voters are losing steam about Prop 40. What difference do you think has been made from the beginning of this introduction, where there seemed to be a lot of attention to it, to now California's losing steam and potentially not letting this thing pass? Everybody likes a free lunch. You know, come on. I mean, you're going to get money floating in from some place that you have nothing to do with? That sounds great. That's how it appeared to a lot of people at the beginning. But as the opponents began to talk about what it could mean, the kind of disruptions it could bring to so many California services, that began to plant doubts into the people against it. Now, look, this is a case of David and Goliath, however you want to put it. A lot on the table here, and the question is whether people still are committed to that kind of change. The polls suggest that there's a downward flow here in terms of public interest and support. Most people now expect it to be defeated, but it's not going to make the issue of affluence and people at the highest income levels not paying their fair share go away. I think we're going to see more of these kinds of proposals in the near term. Let's talk a little bit more broadly. Some of the races we're seeing nationally, of course, every house seat is up for grabs in this election. I think it's about 35 out of 50 Senate seats are up for election. And we are seeing some tight races in places that we don't normally see tight races, including in Texas and Michigan, Kansas, Iowa. We can go all day and pick out a bunch of these states here. Are you at all expecting an overwhelming win for Democrats Democrats this year, as we know, Republicans and the party that's in power. Usually struggles in these midterm elections. Two things to say here, the polls almost universally suggest that this is going to be a big election for Democrats. Here's the other part, however, the polls have not had a good record. They've been off three or four percent. Now, three or four percent doesn't mean a lot to us until we realize how close a number of these races are. So the key thing with polling is to always watch the bottom line, stuff that nobody looks at, the margin of error. What kind of percentages might be off? And most polls are off. They say we could be off by four, five, six percent. So a number of these races are going to be very, very close, as many as eight or ten. So we don't know where this Senate's going to go, although the Democrats seem to have a high end here in most of those races. All right, Larry Gersten, SGSU political science professor emeritus and author of a new book coming out called Overcoming Trumpism. How to save American democracy. We could spend all day talking about Election Day, and we likely will later throughout the day today. Thank you so much for joining us. Thank you.