Russia’s Federal Security Service topples Putin; chaos in Moscow

Name: Russia’s Federal Security Service topples Putin; chaos in Moscow
Uploaded: 2026-10-31T23:07:31.855Z
Duration: 3 min 58 s
Channel: Kanal13

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Vadym Denysenko, head of the analytical center Dilova Stolytsya, spoke with Radio NV about how and why Russia’s FSB Federal Security Service could topple dictator Vladimir Putin, and which diplomatic advantage Ukraine failed to exploit.

“First, I do not link the Ukrainian drone strike on the Russian tax service data centers with the arrests. But here is the situation we now face. The Russian government is being somewhat reconfigured, and the key change is that Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin has lost his most important figure — essentially his only reliable ally, Dmitry Grigorenko, who was a deputy prime minister and chief of the government staff.

In Russia, the chief-of-staff holds very substantial powers, ranging from expert review to control over the entire flow of government documents.

Mishustin has been forced to accept an outsider as chief-of-staff. Anyone who understands bureaucracy knows how serious a blow that is.

Immediately afterward, arrests began inside the Federal Tax Service. Those arrests are linked to people close to Grigorenko.

Mishustin himself, it is worth recalling, comes from the tax service. He rose to head the government from that institution.

Over the past six to nine months we have seen fairly serious pressure — first on the circle of Sergei Kiriyenko, one of the main pillars of the technocratic-bureaucratic vertical, and now the beginning of pressure on Mishustin himself, who is probably the chief pillar of that vertical”, he added.

Expert recalled that in 2016, Putin decided to stop building an FSB-dominated state. Few people in Ukraine know this, but Russia ceased to be an FSB country after 2016. From that point a second vertical was constructed alongside the FSB: a vertical of technocrats and bureaucrats.

It was built. It proved highly effective. And, unfortunately, it was thanks to that vertical that Russia withstood the sanctions pressure in 2022. Had only the FSB vertical existed, there is little doubt Russia would have collapsed economically in 2022–2023.

Beginning in 2025, however, Putin has been moving away from the technocratic vertical and returning to the FSB vertical. There are various reasons. In brief, after the 2024 elections, and especially in 2025, a turn back toward the FSB began. Today the two key pillars of the bureaucratic vertical — Kiriyenko and Mishustin — are under attack.

That does not mean Mishustin and Kiriyenko will be removed tomorrow. But their entourages are under very serious pressure. Clearly some members of those circles are beginning to give evidence against their bosses. In essence, the FSB has moved into a fairly serious counteroffensive against this vertical. We can therefore speak of a sharp strengthening of the FSB’s role in the Russian Federation in recent years. And all of this is occurring against the background of a three-way power structure inside the FSB itself, because the service is not monolithic. There are currently three verticals: that of FSB Director Alexander Bortnikov, that of First Deputy Director Sergei Korolev, and that of the head of military counterintelligence, Ivan Tkachev — a man of Rosneft chief Igor Sechin.

The main political event in Russia awaits us in November: Putin’s decision on whether to extend Bortnikov’s term as FSB director. Bortnikov turns 75, a critical age. Either Putin extends him for another year, or he appoints someone new. Much will depend on that decision regarding how the FSB functions in the coming years.

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Vadim Denisenko, head of the analytical center Delo Stolitsy, spoke with Radio NV about how and why Russia's FSB federal security service could topple dictator Vladimir Putin, and which diplomatic advantage Ukraine failed to exploit. First, I do not link the Ukrainian drone strike on the Russian tax service data centers with the arrests. But here is the situation we now face. The Russian government is being somewhat reconfigured, and the key change is that Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin has lost his most important figure, essentially his only reliable ally, Dmitry Grigorenko, who was a deputy prime minister and chief of the government staff. In Russia, the chief of staff holds very substantial powers, ranging from expert review to control over the entire flow of government documents. Mishustin has been forced to accept an outsider as chief of staff. Anyone who understands bureaucracy knows how serious a blow that is. Immediately afterward, arrests began inside the federal tax service. Those arrests are linked to people close to Grigorenko. Mishustin himself, it is worth recalling, comes from the tax service. He rose to head the government from that institution. Over the past six to nine months we have seen fairly serious pressure, first on the circle of Sergei Kiriyenko, one of the main pillars of the technocratic-bureaucratic vertical, and now the beginning of pressure on Mishustin himself, who is probably the chief pillar of that vertical, he added. Expert recalled that in 2016, Putin decided to stop building an FSB-dominated state. Few people in Ukraine know this, but Russia ceased to be an FSB country after 2016. From that point a second vertical was constructed alongside the FSB, a vertical of technocrats and bureaucrats. It was built. It proved highly effective. And, unfortunately, it was thanks to that vertical that Russia withstood the sanctions pressure in 2022. Had only the FSB vertical existed, There is little doubt Russia would have collapsed economically in 2022-2023. Beginning in 2025, however, Putin has been moving away from the technocratic vertical and returning to the FSB vertical. There are various reasons. In brief, after the 2024 elections, and especially in 2025, a turn back toward the FSB began. Today the two key pillars of the bureaucratic vertical, Kiriyenko and Mishustin, are under attack. That does not mean Mishustin and Kiriyenko will be removed tomorrow. But their entourages are under very serious Clearly some members of those circles are beginning to give evidence against their bosses. In essence, the FSB has moved into a fairly serious counter-offensive against this vertical. We can therefore speak of a sharp strengthening of the FSB's role in the Russian Federation in recent years. And all of this is occurring against the background of a three-way power structure inside the FSB itself, because the service is not monolithic. There are currently three verticals, that of FSB Director Alexander Bortnikov, that of First Deputy Director Sergei Korolev, and that of the head of military counterintelligence, Ivan Tkachev, a man of Rosneft Chief Igor Sechin. The main political event in Russia awaits us in November, Putin's decision on whether to extend Bortnikov's term as FSB Director. Bortnikov turns 75, a critical age. Either Putin extends him for another year, or he appoints someone new. Much will depend on that decision regarding how the FSB functions in the coming years.