Flanagan, Tafoya to debate Friday | Political Happy Hour

Welcome to our Political Happy Hour, everyone. I'm Tim Blotz, along with Lois Olson, one of our political contributors here. We've got so many topics to talk about today. And what I love about this conversation that we are allowed to have every afternoon, it is a conversation, right? No yelling heads and no, you know, it's just great smart stuff. We try. We try. I think that's the tone of people. So it's raining outside. People are at home. Just, you know, cuddle up a little. Maybe grab the blanket. We won't shock you out of the blanket. Let's hope not. You know, we got a couple of headlines that we want to talk about. And one of the first ones is Governor Tim Walz is in Washington, D.C. Back there tonight, he's going to be one of the guests at Georgetown University talking about public life and how to serve. But what does public service look like going forward, especially in this era that we have now? And perhaps maybe he gives some insights about what his next chapter will be, too. Well, he has said he doesn't want to run for office again. There has been speculation about what he might do. He's suggested that he does want to do something. I've thought maybe university president, something like that in his future. but what's really interesting is this talk was not on his public schedule today and we've talked about it here he is kind of taking his victory lap or his legacy lap maybe we'll call it outside of Minnesota he was in Seattle a couple weeks ago now he's in DC and this is it's rare for a governor to be probably more popular outside of their state. And I know his team is really trying hard to shape this legacy around free school lunches, etc. But I think the one thing that I tried to call his team and ask today, I did not get a hold of him, is what does he see public service going forward looking like for those who will follow him? because it's very different. We've talked about it, Courtney, and I talked about the quality of candidates, the spotlight, the social media, the safety. If you choose to step into the breach of public life now and make yourself a candidate, your considerations are very different than they were 5, 10, 15 years ago. And I'm sure he's thought about that, having lived through some very trying times. Well, and you mentioned the safety aspect of it all, too, because that has tragically become a huge component of this now. You know, look, all families make a sacrifice when someone within that family decides to run for public office. And, you know, my wife has a little bit of exposure to that. Her father was out of Winnebago County executive back in Wisconsin back in the day. And you went to college in Winnebago County, right? In Oshkosh. So, yeah, her father was out of Winnebago County executive. So is the family. She still remembers going hand in hand with her dad to go door knock. Right. When he was running for election. And this has been a long time ago. Right. Right. But, you know, in in the family commitment to that political office. Yes. It's huge. It is a family commitment. There's no doubt about it. In fact, it's been reported and said primarily by Governor Walz's children, but his daughter specifically, Hope, that they did not want him to run for a third term. And so when he chose to run for a third term, you can only imagine going home every day and the family's like, we didn't want you to do this. We're on board, but really? And it is a family commitment. And I think we have to recognize that. I think we'll just do a call out here. in these last few weeks no matter what side you're on just know that the whole family is impacted so bring some kindness think of the kids i ran into a candidate spouse a couple weeks ago on a walk that i take regularly in my community and uh i i always just say how are you doing yeah and this was in a nature center and it was like oh funny that we both find the same place to go be quiet get away get away um and that's important for these families too no question about it and then you have the safety issue especially with the tragedies that happen here with the Horton family um and in its these are considerations that candidates never really had to consider before no we talked about it earlier this week um there was an issue up in Badness heights where a campaign manager caught on a ring cam writing a note that was like i know where you live etc to his candidate's opponent ultimately was fired they did the right thing but the the mindset needs a little correction in this business yeah and sometimes i think politics needs a correction oh yeah well there's some tonal corrections we could all use so ain't that the truth all right uh one of the other headlines and this is fascinating too minnesota doctors a number them got together yesterday um to basically say that health care is on the ballot now you and i have been talking about how fuel prices are on the ballot um fraud is on the ballot affordability we had a talk about this yesterday what is affordability um and because the cost of everything is going up particularly at the grocery store but a number of doctors are saying hey look on top of this all we want you to consider that health care is on the ballot too because coming up January 1st there's going to be some major changes to Medicare reimbursement and that's going to have an effect on how health care is delivered particularly sadly maybe in rural areas. Well it's it's across the broad health care has showed up as a top issue for us for the last year in polls it has stayed steady if not for fraud in minnesota health care would be the number one issue but fraud has held its own as well and really the election and the decisions for democrats they want to make this about trump and health care republicans want to make it about fraud and public safety this is the tension that is existing amongst independent voters but we at the advisory follow health care very closely it's one of our core areas that we track like an investment bank only as an insight and the attitudes for 20 years have been either access or affordability for the first time in the last two years those two things are equal so it's not just about affordability it's about a concern about access and this is a very complex and when we say access i want you to define that because i think what you're saying is especially in greater minnesota is is my clinic going to stay open yep is my hospital going to stay open will i still be able to go to my doctor because he still has an office yeah well it's distance and it's specialties one of the issues has been there's not as many ob-gyns going through medical school and recruiting them to rural areas and so many of our birthing clinics are closing down. Well, they're closing down because there's not the physician there. Well, it's actually a physician issue and it's a volume issue. And so they're not giving birth as much. So you can't afford to keep the OBGYN open, but, but the other it's that it's the doctor. It's not about the clinic. It's about the talent. And one of the things is what we've learned is if you are not if you are in medicine and you are not practicing regularly your error rate goes up and so it's very complicated and so the health care issue is complex in rural it's an access issue and a cost issue in metro it's it's a cost issue um and i think you look at hospital consolidations you look at workforce issues not as many workforce the number one reason why nurses leave the workforce? Paperwork. And so there's some modernization in a highly regulated industry that needs to happen quickly in order to make sure that it's still accessible and still affordable. I don't think, like, we're going to talk about health care for the next year in this state. Well, and you just anticipated my next question to you, and that is, if these doctors are correct, if this truly is one of the biggest issues on the ballot that we're not talking about at the moment because we are talking about fraud, we are talking about affordability, we are talking about, especially recently now in the past couple of weeks, crime here in the Twin Cities. At what point does health care really become more cognizant in the forefront of people's minds? Depends on where you are in the consumer chain of health care, what your health needs are. If you are a senior, you're dealing with Medicare Advantage, major changes right now, and you're shopping this month. If you're on the individual market, you have till the end of the year to sign up. And then if you're in a group plan, you're waiting for your employer to say, what's my plan for next year and how much does it cost? And so again, affordability costs is going to be a major concern. Absolutely. So it'll continue to be up there. Oh my goodness. yeah lots of things to talk about here all right we're going to take a quick break and when we come back we're going to take a look at the um the senate race especially the u.s senate debate that's coming up tomorrow night you're watching political happy hour here with boyce olsen and myself here on fox 9 welcome back to fox 9's political happy hour we're doing this every day this this uh half hour at 4 30 in the afternoon with Boyce Olson and i'm just keeping the seat warm for Courtney Godfrey, because she's taking a couple of days off this week. And I'm happy to be here, too, because I love these discussions, because you and I are kind of political junkies at heart, you more so than the rest of us. But one of the big things that's going to happen tomorrow is the debate in the U.S. Senate race. And for the first time now, we're really going to kind of get a chance to see these candidates side by side, taking some questions. we already know largely what their positions are right but you tend to learn a lot more about candidates when when the spotlight is on in a forum like this you know i've been watching debates from around the country or clips from debates around the country and i'm you see some spicy moments you see some moments yeah in this u.s senate debate tomorrow which is the only one on the schedule between Michelle Tefoya and peggy flanagan sets up a couple different ways one is the personalities of the two are very different completely opposite and the debate approach of both of them and the media personality of both of them is very different and this is the interesting piece for me is that in a debate you're trying to make your opponent respond to you and both of these candidates have been fairly disciplined not to do that but they haven't had the lights on they haven't had the pressure they haven't had the and they're both going to try to get under each other's skin a little and i would just say that that is sport to me to watch to see how it happens and there's you know the issues are clear and we have a new ad and um national fox news was in town today fox and friends highlighting the race the race is becoming more national so i think there'll be a lot of people watching there but it's really Peggy Flanagan wanting to talk about ICE and Trump and Michelle's alleged you know connection and allegiance there and Michelle Tafoya talking about fraud and crime those are larger themes in the election but there might not be a race that that sets up the way it does in this race because you have two women running and they to a person deal with issues differently and they're going to deal with this dynamic. Michelle Tafoya has never debated. Peggy Flanagan has. But she's a strong communicator. Oh, absolutely. Strong communicator. Absolutely. Peggy Flanagan has never debated anyone like Michelle Tafoya. And I think it is going to be, there's going to be some clips that we'll probably pull on Monday for sure. All right. So when I look at these things, you look at them from that point of view and and who's who's going to get under each other's skin. I tend to look at this more from a strategic communications discipline. In other words, who is their target audience that they need to be talking to tomorrow night? Right. So let's break that down a little bit if I can. Yes. Let's start with Michelle Tafoya. Who is the target audience that she needs to convince tomorrow night for voters to fill in the dot for her so there's four to seven percent undecided in that race but most of those undecideds are in the suburbs and most of those undecideds are women and so Michelle Tafoya is going to try to convince them that i think she's competent not oh you know allied or loyal to the president and that she somehow can serve in the U.S. Senate in a way that people don't expect i think Michelle Tafoya is going to try to be the unexpected candidate and i think Peggy Flanagan is going to try to be the Paul Wellstone solid do right for Minnesota i'm steady i can do this we can have the experience i've been here before i think that's the way they're going to do i think that's the way they're going to set it up and it's not necessarily what reaction they get out of their opponent. It's how that reaction then plays to those undecided voters. Do those undecided voters come away saying, oh, they handled that issue really well. I liked that answer. Or that didn't seem very senatorial or that seemed mean. Neither one of them in all the debates I've ever watched or been involved with, the candidates who try to be overly aggressive often come off as mean and it it it might feel good in the moment tim but it doesn't reflect well on the on the screen and especially in this state where we've we've got some shall i say some sensibilities upper midwest sensibilities where um meanness is not a reward no right okay so i asked about the targeting that michelle the foia needs to go after what about peggy who's the key audience that she needs to speak to tomorrow night well she needs to energize her base um and and i might point out the base is very important because they showed up during the primary yep we had 300 000 more democratic ballots that were cast in august than republican it was substantial yes but let's just pause there democrats have outvoted republicans two to one in every primary since 1998 so yes but there were more we had record turnout in both sides but the ratio was not that different um so uh one thing i think peggy flanagan has to do is she has to exude confidence and she has to be able to look michelle tafoya in the eye she has to be able to engage she has to not be intimidated if the senate the U.S. Senate is the greatest deliberative body in the world she has to prove that she has the metal to hold her own in the U.S. Senate so how much does experience matter in in the voters that you've surveyed the focus groups that you do in a seat like this um you've got um you have peggy who's who has a track record of she's won statewide elective office now twice um she was an elected representative from Saint Louis Park So she served in the Minnesota House. Michelle, on the other hand, has no public policy experience. Yep. Well, look. Or electoral experience. And I think that that plays in. And I think it's an outsider's year. I do. I think that the math favors Flanagan in the polls. She has a slight edge, but it's there. But one of the big issues she's going to talk about is ICE. And she released a new ad today about ICE. And I think it's a pretty compelling ad. We have it. Let's go to it. Let's watch it right now, yeah. This is where ICE grabbed Liam Coronel Ramos and sent that five year old little boy to a detention center in Texas. ICE has now snatched up 6,200 children. Donald Trump said he'd go after the worst of the worst. These are just kids. Michelle Tafoya said she thinks ICE treats kids really, really well. I think ICE should be ripped apart and replaced by an immigration system grounded in safety, dignity and due process. We can do that. I'm Peggy Flanagan. I approve this message. Very strong because it gets at her core message that she's anti-Trump. And look what he did to our state and our region here in the Twin Cities. And I am not going to be that kind of representative. I'm going to stand up to him. Look what he did, not just to our state and our region. Look what he did to our kids. And I think that's one of the compelling things that we see. um so in that senate race i think she's gonna that's what she's gonna try to draw out Michelle Trevoya was on Fox and Friends today Fox and friends was in town this is becoming a national race and i know we'll talk more about it monday yeah all right well we're going to take a quick break and when we come back we're going to talk about the attorney general's race you're watching political happy hour with Boy Solson and myself tim blotts all right you're watching political happy hour with myself tim blotts and our political analyst Boy Solson in the couple of moments that we have left here. I want to talk about the attorney general's race because this is tightening up and maybe it's always been tight. One of the latest polls out yesterday from Survey USA and our competitors over at KSTP show that this race is neck and neck, a statistical and tie. Yep. This is, Keith Ellison was the closest statewide winner four years ago. It's going to be a close race. Governor's race is about the future of the state. The Senate race is about who can be a senator tim this thing's just going to be a street fight between keith ellison both of them had news conferences today that were not policy substantive but a chance to bash their opponent and they took off the gloves and both of them yeah and they're going to keep doing that they also have a debate uh tomorrow night uh and so i think that's going to continue but there's a new ad out by a third party group and what i want people to realize is how quickly the ads are now being turned around based on the news of the day we talk about the news we talk to people about the news but it's those independent voters that are impacted by the headlines and uh one of the anti Ellison groups put out this ad today let's watch it right want to stop them from leading their lives they're trying to stop us from leading our lives they bought cars a mansion a villa overseas first the fraud now somali gangs driving beamers and mercedes level of violence has been brazen a shooting at a church in Edina a shooting at the Eden Prairie football game and a terrorist plot at the Mall of America Ellison took their fraud money and said of course i'm the end of the hill it's time to and again there's there's a phenomenon in political science called recency and boy this is front and center this is a definition of recency especially going off of the current events here in the last week and quickly turning that around into a strategically targeted ad at those who are still undecided in this race, hoping that they can scare them into voting for the Republican candidate. Yeah. And this is a feeling. Crime is a feeling issue. Affordability of the economy is a math issue. But this is a feeling issue. And how these headlines made people feel last week and the week before and now they're trying to keep that feeling alive until election day lisa Dymuth launched a similar ad yesterday and she actually went to the sites of the crimes and talked from those places and i think you're going to see more of this we have a governor's debate on monday political happy hours off yesterday but we have a string of debates starting tomorrow through next wednesday that this race will turn one way or another i believe it's next week that these races break one way or another and that's been history in Minnesota and why is it because people are still making up their minds those who pay attention the latest start really paying attention these last two weeks there's there's kind of an old adage in in electoral politics that no one pays attention until the last out of the last game of the World Series and uh if that's true we got a couple of we get at least another week and a half to go we do will the World Series be over first or will the recount in one of these races take us farther the most important question i want to know is do the Brewers get to the World Series and do the Brewers finally win so we'll see i'm cheering for your Brewers i am i have my Wisconsin friends we need we needle them a little but uh you know Wisconsin can use a win too uh my i tell this story often my very first baseball game that dad took me to was in the old County Stadium and i got to see Hank Aaron hit a home run over our heads in the centerfield bleachers probably doesn't get much better than that tim it might have to take this win so i'm a i'm a Brewers fan through and through love our Twins love our Twins but i'm i'm pulling for the Brewers sounds good and they have a chance to sweep the Dodgers tonight tonight where are you going to be on your couch um well i'm going to be here working for a little bit and then yeah i'm going home i'm watching it i'm watching the game sounds good so a lot of fun go brew crew we want to thank you for joining us here this is called Political Happy Hour we're here every day at 4 30 we're going to take a day off tomorrow but We're going to be back on Monday, we promise. Courtney Godfrey will be back along with Lois, and we're going to have more great discussions along the way. Thank you for spending time with us. We hope you were enlightened a little bit here this afternoon, too. Have a great night, everyone.