Dallas weather: October 15 evening forecast

First strong fall cold front of the season arrives here tonight. We've been watching it to our northwest and it'll arrive here in the next few hours. It's going to bring the potential for strong storms west of I-35 at least for the next couple of hours. For the majority of us, it brings light rain tonight along with gusty winds. Winds 15 to 25 miles per hour tonight, gusting to 35 by the time we get into the overnight hours into Friday. A 25 to 35 mile per hour wind gusting to 40. And while this is a stout cold front, it's not a sharp one. will initially only drop about 10 degrees as the front comes through. But by the time we get into tomorrow, we're talking about a 20 to 30 degree temperature drop. Already temperatures are falling to our north, but that's not associated with the front. It's actually associated with a little outflow boundary situated here from Sherman down through Denton, Mineral Wells and Breckenridge. The actual cold front is back towards the Wichita Falls area. And between those two things, the boundary in the front is where we have the potential for some of these stronger thunderstorms to try and develop. That's what we've been watching out to our west along with heavy rainfall from Wichita Falls down through Grand Breckenridge and Mineral Wells. The heaviest thunderstorm right now approaching Palo Pinto County or moving through Palo Pinto County rather. This one could produce some 40 to 50 mile per hour gusts as it moves off to the northeast at about 25 miles per hour taking it through Grayford then Perrin, Pecanville and eventually working into Jack and Wise County. We'll keep an eye on it. The severe threat today is low however one or two of these storms could pulse up and produce that. The bigger threat with these showers and thunderstorms out west is the potential for flooding. Already in the last three hours, we've seen some three to four inch totals out towards Stephens County, some two to three inch totals closer to Pecan Lake, and that's why we have a flood watch that remains here through 1 a.m. for our western counties. We also have a couple of flood advisories in effect now for Young and Stevens County, so if you're out there driving in our western counties, try to stay away from the low water crossings if you can. We have moderate rain extending up from Jacksboro through Buffalo Springs, Henrietta, Nocona, and Bowie, all the way back towards Wichita Falls. Meanwhile, in the Metroplex, it's been quiet. But as this outflow boundary approaches, it will be interesting to see if we could see some isolated thunderstorms try to develop. Futurecast says, hey, the main activity stays off to the west, at least through about dinnertime. But after 7, 8 o'clock, I do expect this to continue to work into the Metroplex, likely weakening as it does so. it'll turn into more of a steady light rain as we go through the nighttime hours that front expected to push through between 8 and 10 o'clock that's when the winds will start to gust potentially as high as 35 miles per hour and overnight expect the rain to hang around with a couple of passing light showers continuing through your morning commute temperatures drop into the upper 50s by morning and then during the day tomorrow as we dry out we only make it to the mid 60s and look what happens by saturday morning we're talking about temperatures down into the mid 40s. As far as how much rain to expect with the activity moving through tonight west of I-35 you could see some multi-inch rainfall totals for the metroplex point southeast generally about a tenth to a quarter of an inch so this won't be a big issue for many of us. The winds will be though we'll have winds gusting as high as 35 miles per hour overnight then during the day tomorrow especially in the morning we could have some wind gusts to 40 and that will continue through the day tomorrow so tie up the inflatable Halloween decorations you could find them down the road bring in the trash can too. The other thing we'll have to watch for with that wind coming in is the fire danger. It'll be high to very high especially east of I-35 as we go through the day on Friday so no burning at least until we can get the winds to calm down a little bit as we go through that forecast. The seven-day forecast was a nice weekend with cool mornings, a beautiful afternoon, 60s for Saturday, 70s for Sunday. We'll slowly warm back up and get back into the mid-80s as we head towards the middle of next week.