Polling Insights & Candidate Dynamics | Battleground Texas

The countdown is on, and the stakes in the Lone Star State have never been higher. From top-ticket races to the latest polls, campaign ads, and candidate interviews, we're tracking every move on the road to November. This is Battleground, Texas. Hello, everyone. I'm Rudy Kosky in Austin. I'm Stephen Dial in Dallas. I'm Greg Grugan. Let's start with the race for the U.S. Senate. New polling from the University of Texas reveals Democratic challenger James Tallarico is narrowly leading Republican nominee Ken Paxton 50% to 47% among likely voters. That three-point edge is within the poll's margin of error. Now, when you dig into the numbers, the story is all about independents and the suburbs. Among independent voters, Tallarico is winning them over 69% to just 11% for Paxton. He also holds a 10-point lead in the crucial suburban battlegrounds and leads among women voters by 16 points. Paxton, meanwhile, is dominating in rural Texas and holds a solid advantage among men. He's also lagging slightly behind Tallarico when it comes to consolidating his own party's base. Yeah. Now, Ken Paxton is facing new scrutiny following a Wall Street Journal report. According to the journal, Paxton spent New Year's Eve 2024 in Dubai, partying with two Americans who were indicted for indicted U.S. fugitives at the time. Now, video shows Paxton watching fireworks with his girlfriend and the two men and the both men. They're facing federal health care fraud charges in Illinois. Campaign finance records also show that Ahmed, one of the men contributed $190,000 to Paxton. Paxton's campaign has dismissed the report as political persecution. Now, Tallarico responded on X posting, quote, a party with multiple fugitives and Ken Paxton is still the sketchiest guy in the room. And the hits keep coming. In new audio recordings posted by Rolling Stone magazine, Paxton can be heard sounding the alarm on multiple Texas races. He explicitly warns that Governor Abbott is, quote, struggling in his bid for re-election. Is the rest of the ticket, like, you know, we hear Abbott struggling, but is that? So, yes, Abbott is struggling, but he has a lot of money. She is not. And I would, if I asked 99 people in a room, or 100 people in a room, maybe one would know. No name ID, but he's still close. And he didn't have any financial advantage, just verbal, all the negative ads So those are my two disadvantages. One was great, actually, not having time to raise more money, having the negative ads. And my opponent is well-funded and well-known. Whereas the rest of the ticket, who knows the Democrats? There's not a single, like I said, he's running for Texas AG as a Democrat. He gave it a name. Is he running against a lieutenant governor? I don't know. I can't even name a name. So Mays is looking okay for his election for AG? He's probably riding along with the governor somewhere. All right, former Texas House Speaker Dave Phelan is also sounding the alarm for the GOP. He's warning that Republicans are, quote, freaking out ahead of the November election. Now, in a new interview with Texas Monthly, Phelan said that he believes a blue wave is possible. He criticized the current direction of the party, claiming the focus is too much on national D.C. directives, missing the mark with swing voters. Phelan, who did not seek re-election as House Speaker back in '24, is not seeking re-election to his Southeast Texas district seat this cycle. Now, let's take a look at the new numbers in the governor's race, shall we? Governor Greg Abbott facing the toughest re-election fight of his career as he chases a record fourth term. The new UT poll showing a virtual tie. But, this one's interesting. Democrat State Representative Gina Hinojosa edging out the incumbent 49% to 48%. Looking at the demographics of this race, Hinojosa is riding a wave of support from independent voters, winning them over 67% to 17%. percent. She also holds a 14-point lead among both Latino voters and urban voters. Governor Greg Abbott is maintaining his firewall in rural counties with a massive 40-point lead over Hinojosa. And here's a notable item in this survey. Abbott continues to win over suburban voters. Remember the Tallarico poll? Well, Abbott's got the suburban voters with a nine-point margin. The gender divide is also stark. Hinojosa carries women by 15 points, while Abbott carries men by 23 points. Greg? In the race for lieutenant governor, four-term incumbent Republican Dan Patrick is finding himself on the defensive. The numbers show Democrat Vicki Goodwin leading Patrick 49 percent to 46 percent. While Patrick benefits from near universal name recognition, The poll suggests that might be a double-edged sword. 38% of voters hold an unfavorable view of him. Meanwhile, Goodwin is still largely unknown. And the battle to become the next top cop is a statistical dead heat. Democrat Nathan Johnson holds a razor-thin lead over Republican Mays Middleton, 48 to 47%. 40% of likely voters have no opinion of Middleton. and 48 percent have no opinion of Johnson. A heaping helping to unpack there, so stick with us. Battleground Texas will be right back. Welcome back. Another day, another poll. One thing's for sure, they all paint a picture of a close race. I've talked to lead writer for the Texas Tribune, Renzo Downey. But the fact that Democrats feel like this is the time for the first time in decades, I mean, is it just them going off of the faith of the polls or is there more to it with Republicans having a candidate that has baggage? Well, certainly that is a factor. I mean, you've got a historically unpopular president at the moment. You have a Senate candidate in Ken Paxton on the Republican side that has had a series of scandals and had a very tough primary, a lot of mudslinging in that primary between him and incumbent Senator John Cornyn, who he defeated. And so between that and, you know, the national environment right now, the Democrats are feeling like they've got a pretty opportune situation. It's not just the Senate race, though. This same poll has Gina Hinojosa, the Democratic nominee for governor, up by one point over Governor Greg Abbott, the governor actually here in North Texas today. Is it so much of a OK if Tallarico does well, there will be a trickle down to this governor's race and maybe the attorney general's race? Yeah, well, what's certainly interesting about these races, the Senate race and the governor's race, is that they're helping each other out. Gina Hinojosa, she does well in certain parts of the state, but James Tallarico slightly trails her. And there's also regions where Tallarico's running better than Representative Hinojosa. And so that's helping out the Democrats right now. And with the governor, he had a significant tranche of money to start off this race, and he's been spending a whole lot of that money. All right, gents, can you believe early voting's in a few days, Greg? Every single poll, for the most part, has been close. Are you buying or selling these polls? Stephen, neither. I'm hedging. And here's why. When you start examining this polling, you find the cohorts who have a history of actually showing up at the polls older Texans, rural folks, and white guys, all breaking pretty solidly Republican. Now, on the flip side, Democrats are winning heavily with young people, African-Americans and Tejanos, all of whom have less than stellar turnout rates when it comes to past elections. Maybe that changes, and maybe not. Bottom line, I guess I'm somewhere between St. Louis and Kansas City in the show-me state. In other words, until the underperforming Democratic supporters start showing up in mass, you've got to think Advantage GOP, even in a close contest, given this state has been solidly red for three consecutive decades. Guys? I used to be a resident of the show me state. Yeah, in this case, I got to see it to believe it. We've talked about polls in years past, Rudy. Are you hot or cold on the latest one? No, lukewarm. I'm pretty confident in the snapshot. All the surveys are providing right now, especially the deeper dives into the responses, which reflect how we are in the age of instant rice and immediate rage. So there's no doubt people are upset with the price of gas, upset paying more for groceries. But here's some perspective, guys. In 2022, during the Biden administration, the inflation rate national average, 8%, with a 40-year peak of 9%. The rate today, 3.7%. And in 22, the national average for gas topped at just over $5 a gallon. The peak so far this year, $4.40. My point is, no one likes getting pinched. But the prices back in 22 were higher and fueled mostly by Democrat policies. Clearly, those who are responding to the polls, I don't think they're making the connection just yet, Stephen. Greg, if Democrats pull this off in the Senate race, is it a one and done or could it be a trickle-down effect? Look, Stephen, I was around when the Texas stars aligned and the political earth split wide open to put a gal named Ann Richards in the governor's mansion. So it can happen. Nine months ago, I, for one, didn't give Gina Hinojosa even a slugger's chance to knock out Greg Abbott. And it's fair to say I had plenty of company. But here she is in striking distance with 20 days to go, one of the most hyper-liberal members of the Texas legislature, and a very public track record to prove it. Now, if Texans decide to collectively throw all the current bombs out for a fresh slate of progressives in Austin, many may well find themselves with an acute case of buyer's remorse. understands this the uh the label economic populism is just a newfangled way of saying more government not less more taxation not less more redistribution of wealth not less maybe texas voters are willing to give it a shot but i'm guessing not guys yeah and uh let me build off that real quickly you know maybe we should have a poll question that says should texans have top leaders similar to those currently governing california illinois and new york steven yeah all right coming up we'll be right back welcome back to the battleground fear over data centers became an early full-blown midterm issue Democrats and republican candidates now both riding this nimbyism carousel it's a big political boogeyman on the campaign trail except in a tiny spot of Texas, Haskell County, north of Abilene. Community leaders there, like Mayor Christina Isbell, seem to have reigned in the rage. I asked her how. Transparency is the biggest key. And I feel like since I've been mayor, I've been very transparent about everything that happens within the city. And in Haskell County, I feel like it's different. There are people that are worried and there's people that are scared and there's people that are against it and for it. But overall, I feel our community is really good about just having conversations and not yelling. Is the financial payback worth the fight? All of our commissioners that sit in our county, they have been commissioners for 10, 15, 20, 30 years and they've watched the cities in our county decline. They've watched schools close, they've watched grocery stores close, they've watched the towns get smaller. So you can't blame them for wanting to try to bring some kind of economic growth to the community. I do feel like long term, it is going to be worth it. Already, we're seeing a financial difference just in the everyday economics of what's happening in the city of Haskell and within the county. What's your advice to communities that are dealing with this issue right now? Nobody needs to be working in silos. Everybody needs to be talking, the city, the counties, the hospitals, the schools. There needs to be a big, broader conversation of what the impacts look all the way across the board. I feel like if a company came in and their idea is to use up all your water, it doesn't do them any good. So in a way, it doesn't make sense to me, if we run out of water, they run out of water and nobody can be open. So I feel like the amount of fear, I don't understand it. But I also understand that we have to be observant of it. We have to pay attention and make sure it's okay. There was no other way that Haskell was ever gonna grow again, I don't think. I almost feel like we can dream again, because the economics are changing, and it's gonna be like that for a long time. All right, the town of Haskell has a little more than 3,000 people, the entire population of the county, about 5,400 people, spit that one out, sorry guys. Stephen, Fox 4 has covered the opening of data centers in Haskell and in other parts of the Metroplex. The success stories there always seem to involve communication and managed growth, right? Yeah, for sure. And yesterday, man, it was data center day, literally. I mean, James Salarico came out with a data center ad, right? But we had multiple cities here in North Texas having meetings about data centers. One city in North Texas putting a 90-day moratorium on new data center development. another city trying to make stricter regulations when it came to reporting and water and the such you may remember last month Ken Paxton in his office calling for more reporting for data centers it's become a very political topic of course but the fact from the fiction i think is getting a little blurred about their impacts on these communities really yeah water is really muddy right now as with all political issues though campaigns they're going to squeeze them until they run dry. Greg Abbott got into the game, too, demanding water use audits. Gina Hinojosa condemning data center projects as examples of political corruption. You know, I really do understand the concern, Greg, but it's been reported a golf course can use 30 times more water than a data center. Managed growth policies should have killed off this boogeyman. Why is it still alive? Rudy, I'm not sure, you know, the pledge of new guardrails set in stone should have calmed fears recycle the water you use completely put back into the grid every electron you consume and never ever build next to neighborhoods now as i've said before there are a quarter million square miles in texas a good chunk of it unfit for grazing or tilling or much of anything let the data centers have their pick of that acreage and pay handsomely in property and sales tax for the privilege all right well adding to the fear guys new report out today time article warning ai is a few months away from a point when developers may lose control guys uh it's getting weird but this is going to live on through the midterms right steven it will but i wonder if the politicians really will give it the focus that they're giving it right now rudy what do you think greg real quick rudy it's an issue for today tomorrow and every day after this is a transformative technology and yes potentially an existential one as well so like the gun in the closet the nuke in the silo and the virus in the lab it has to be treated collectively with absolute respect uh you know i'm talking coming up go ahead go ahead go ahead Well look, I was just going to say the prospect of self-aware technology for me is scary. Can you say Cyberdyne Systems, Rudy? We'll be back. Welcome back. Time to wrap up all family business on the battleground with a few well-aimed parting shots. I'll go first. Local Democrats and major Texas population centers are hammering through property tax hikes and full-blown contradiction of their national and statewide candidates full-throated stumping on the issue of affordability. Word to the wise and not so wise, nothing drags angry Republicans and cash-strapped independents to the polls like having their taxes jacked up when they are already hurting. Bottom line, if the margin of victory November 3rd is as tight as polls suggest, the major Metro money grab could prove a difference maker. All right, who's next? I'm next. My parting shot comes from another Texas blue bubble. The Austin City Council two years ago spent several thousand dollars to provide local bars with test strips so customers can check their drinks to see if they've been spiked. Well, the council has now decided to allocate $20,000 to those bars to continue the program, even though they never checked to see if the initial pilot program was even successful. Did we find any drinks? I don't know. A cheaper idea is following the old rule. Never leave your drink alone on a table. Told our daughters that multiple times. Works every time. No taxpayer involvement. Stephen? All right, my thing is, are we going to keep believing these polls, or will they be wrong again? I mean, I will say, and we talked off air about this, all of them have shown all of these races really tight. So is it kind of like hedging their bets? Hey, we weren't wrong. We were saying the races were tight. And again, this is a snapshot in time. Or will Democrats pull off an upset? We'll find out in a couple of weeks. All right, that's all the time we have. To see this episode or our past ones, go to our station's YouTube channel. And please keep the conversation going with us on social media. We'll see you back on the battleground tomorrow at 3 on Fox Local. Until then, vaya con Dios.