Iran's secret plan; Russia is helping Iran prepare for a new war via Caspian Express
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Iranian authorities may have used the diplomatic pause with the United States not to prepare for an end to the conflict, but to strengthen their military capabilities and prepare for a new round of hostilities. This is evidenced by intercepted communications and other intelligence reviewed by American and Arab officials, according to The Wall Street Journal.
The hard line in Tehran hopes to raise the cost of the conflict for the United States and its allies in the Middle East. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has been given greater powers, and veterans of the Iran-Iraq War and previous repressions have been appointed to key positions.
At the same time, Iran has accelerated production of missiles and drones, strengthened counterintelligence, and expanded coordination with allied groups in Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon.
The Strait of Hormuz has become particularly important. Tehran-backed forces have attacked ships and attempted to increase pressure on Saudi Arabia. Iranian forces have also been transmitting intelligence to their allies on potential targets, including ports and energy facilities. "The threats extend to other Gulf countries as well. Scenarios under discussion include strikes on energy infrastructure, sabotage of internet cables, and even possible ground operations in Kuwait," the authors write.
Domestically, the leadership is also tightening its grip. The Guard Corps has been given greater influence over the regular army, and former Basij leader Hossein Taeb has been tasked with transforming the organization into a large-scale domestic intelligence network.
Washington and Tehran, however, have different assessments of the situation. The US hopes that sanctions and military pressure will force Iran to soften its position. Tehran, meanwhile, views the talks as a possible respite before a new clash.
According to Mehdi Mohammadi , an adviser close to the negotiations, the current lull may just be the "calm before the storm." Russia continues to supply Iran with ammunition through a secure and isolated maritime route in the Caspian Sea. In addition to drone components, the shipments also include TNT, the American television network NBC reported. According to the TV channel, the information is based on a document from a European government. Its contents were allegedly confirmed by a Western source familiar with the document. The continued supply, according to the source, indicates a deepening strategic alliance between Tehran and Moscow. Both countries are waging separate wars while simultaneously confronting a common enemy—the United States. Russia's supply routes to Iran via the Caspian Sea have been reported before. In May, The New York Times reported that Moscow was using this route to deliver components to Iran to rebuild its drone fleet. According to American sources, approximately 60% of Iran's drones were destroyed during the recent war with the US and Israel.
According to the same report, Russia also uses the route to transport other cargo that would normally be shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. This route is currently hampered by the American blockade of Iranian ports.
However, according to a new NBC report, the scope of the shipments is broader. It includes not only drone components but also additional munitions, including TNT. These materials are of great importance to Iran, which is reportedly preparing for the next direct confrontation with the US or Israel.
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