Putin's new insidious plan: Russia tries to strangle Ukraine's ports

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Russia has stepped up attacks on Ukrainian Black Sea ports, attempting not only to disrupt grain exports but also to deprive Ukraine of one of its main sources of foreign exchange earnings. Furthermore, the Kremlin hopes that rising global food prices will force international partners to pressure Ukraine to cease attacks on Russian territory, as columnist Ian Bremer writes in Time .

The author notes that, despite successful Ukrainian drone strikes deep into Russia and the isolation of occupied Crimea, Moscow has recently achieved certain results. This is not only through missile terror against Ukrainian civilians, but also through an intensive campaign against Ukrainian Black Sea ports.

According to the observer, these measures have exposed a shortage of interceptor missiles for Ukraine's air defense systems, disrupted grain exports, reduced Kyiv's export revenues, and halted arms deliveries to Ukrainian troops. This is especially critical ahead of the harvest, as agricultural products account for approximately 60% of Ukraine's merchandise exports. "If these disruptions continue, Russia could cut off one of Ukraine's most important sources of foreign currency and simultaneously strengthen its position in international negotiations by dealing an economic blow to major grain importers in Africa and Asia," the article states. Bremer noted that Ukrainian authorities are trying to downplay the scale of the damage: after a two-week wave of Russian drone and missile strikes on Odessa and other coastal cities, Ukraine's Minister of Agrarian Policy stated in July that the ports remained open and operational.

"However, approximately 90% of shipowners have suspended their vessels' calls at Ukrainian ports because, as in the Strait of Hormuz near Iran, insurance premiums have risen sharply due to the high risk of further attacks," the columnist writes. He recalled that this is not the first time that shipping traffic in the Black Sea has been disrupted following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine: at the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026, Russian strikes on ports also disrupted their operations, but only briefly.

However, the current campaign is significantly larger and more intense, Bremer notes. He believes this is largely due to Ukraine's recent successes, particularly within Russia itself, which have forced dictator Vladimir Putin to try to seize the initiative on the battlefield.

"Ukraine's biggest problem is that it is forced to rely on a limited supply of American Patriot interceptor missiles—the only reliable means of defense against Russian missiles—to cover its cities and military logistics routes," the author states.

He believes that deploying Patriot systems to protect ports would be both costly and risky. Russia understands this and will therefore continue to attack ports with both missiles and drone swarms, leaving insurance companies no incentive to lower rates and shipowners no incentive to return to Ukrainian ports.

By targeting ports, Moscow is also seeking to weaken international support for Ukraine by raising global food prices, the observer believes.

"Ukraine accounts for a quarter of Egypt's wheat imports and approximately 18% of Indonesia's wheat imports. Furthermore, it is the largest supplier of corn to the European Union, accounts for 92% of the EU's sunflower oil imports, and remains a significant supplier of feed grains and oil," the article states.

According to the author, Putin is counting on rising food prices – at a time when the US war with Iran is already pushing up the cost of oil and many other goods – to force Ukraine's trading partners, primarily European countries, to pressure Kyiv to reduce the intensity of its attacks on Russian territory.

"However, such a strategy is unlikely to work. European support for Ukraine remains strong, and governments that suffer from rising prices are more likely to blame Moscow than Kyiv. Nevertheless, Putin is so eager to achieve success on the battlefield that he will likely continue this course even without a clear victory," Bremer asserts.


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