Strikes on Russian resources beyond the Urals; big shock to Putin and his team
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Therefore, the increased range of Ukrainian drones and missiles, which we are currently observing, is of great significance. Initially, our drones flew 30 km behind the front line, but now they cover approximately 2,000 km. If the range increases to 5,000 km, the regional model of the Russian economy will become the main vulnerability for Putin and his team. Life in the current format and waging war on the current scale are only possible thanks to the vast resources located beyond the Urals. If these resources are depleted, the system begins to collapse, says Vitaly Shapran is an economist and financial analyst.
The oil industry is unique, and we've already begun to systematically target it. But there are other industries and raw materials as well. The regional model is structured such that approximately 50–70% of production in various sectors of European Russia depends on resources extracted beyond the Urals.
If this resource is eliminated or cut off, not only will export revenues from oil, gold, platinum, and other raw materials decline, but production itself will also decline, as enterprises in the European part of Russia will no longer receive the raw materials they process. This is a very serious strategy, requiring long-range weapons. When people ask us, "How will Kyiv survive next winter?" it's worth remembering: if the winter is like it was two or three years ago, severe frosts in Kyiv will last, perhaps for several days. And in remote regions of Russia, from November to April, temperatures can range from -20 to -50 degrees Celsius. Access there is difficult, and the infrastructure is poor. Furthermore, it has become clear that Russia essentially lacks a unified power grid. Remote regions of the Far East and the North operate on separate power systems. Therefore, if the power grid there is disabled, transferring electricity from the European part of Russia will be impossible.
This is a complex set of vulnerabilities caused by natural conditions and the fact that Russia did nothing to address them after the collapse of the USSR. They failed to build sufficient oil storage facilities, failed to create a unified energy grid, and failed to modernize critical infrastructure. “All of these factors can be exploited. So far, we've only really dealt a serious blow to the oil industry. It's important for exports and the state's financial security, but this is just the beginning. If Russia decides to go further, a negative scenario will be more likely for them than for us”, expert adds.
Recall, Ukraine appeared to have begun large-scale strikes against Russian shadow tankers attempting to supply occupied Crimea with fuel, as an energy crisis on the peninsula worsens.
At the same time, Ukraine has continued to cause fuel shortages in Russia itself, striking refineries deep inside the country, including, for the first time, the Omsk refinery in Siberia, Russia’s largest, 2,500km from the Ukrainian border. Ukraine struck several energy targets during the week, furthering its twin goals of starving Russia of petrol and export revenue from oil.
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