The disintegration of Russia has begun: regions refuse to obey even with the Kremlin

The disintegration of Russia has begun: regions refuse to obey even with the Kremlin

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Economist, member of the Ukrainian Society of Financial Analysts, and former member of the Council of the National Bank of Ukraine, Vitaliy Shapran, commented on the question of whether the intensification of attacks on Russia could lead to increased protest sentiment among Russians.

"I don't believe there will be a riot in Moscow. The Kremlin fears such a scenario, so as soon as the situation escalates, it starts taking everything from the regions and sending it to the capital," he emphasized in an interview with Glavred . At the same time, the expert did not rule out the possibility of protests in remote Russian regions.

"But in the regions, especially remote ones, protests are possible. From time to time, reports emerge of fuel shortages specifically in remote areas. For example, if sea navigation along the Northern Sea Route closes in early November and nothing but airplanes can deliver anything there, enormous risks arise. There are a number of regions that produce liquefied natural gas, gold, platinum, and oil. They are located above the Arctic Circle or in the permafrost zone and rely on these supplies. If navigation is disrupted, these regions will have every opportunity, if they have the political will, to even declare secession from the Russian Federation," he believes.

The interlocutor is convinced that contradictions between the federal center and the regions are one of the main potential scenarios for the collapse of the Russian Federation.

"The Kremlin is doing nothing to overcome them. On the contrary, the worse the situation gets, the more resources it takes from the regions and invests in Moscow, St. Petersburg, and a few other major cities. Everything else lives its own life, and a very bad one at that," he says.

According to the expert, this scenario is particularly interesting for remote regions, because it is very difficult for the federal center to suppress protests there.

"We're used to the fact that in Ukraine, even without air travel, you can travel from Donbas to Uzhhorod by train or car. But try getting from Norilsk to Moscow or St. Petersburg in winter. Many cities in this region have no other connection except air travel. Even sending the National Guard there is a challenge. This can only be done by plane, and aviation resources are limited. Furthermore, the climate there is extremely harsh, to which their security services are also not adapted. They are playing with the real risk of the collapse of the Russian Federation or changes to the agreement between the regions and the federal center – both public and formal. This is one of the scenarios that threatens them and which Ukraine can, to a certain extent, exert pressure on," Shapran added.

Journalist, writer, and publicist Alexander Sotnik, editor of the Sotnik-TV channel, assessed the likelihood of possible protests and mass demonstrations within Russia against Vladimir Putin's rule.

In his opinion , a large-scale popular uprising should not be expected; only isolated local conflicts are possible, which will be quickly suppressed by security forces.

"There will be localized outbreaks, some people will chop each other up with axes and then calm down. The riot police will arrive, pacify everyone, a dozen or so rioters will be sent to the SVO, and that will be the end of it," he emphasized.



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