Silent operation: a covert Ukrainian offensive thwarted Russia's plans for Zaporizhzhia

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Over the past six months, the Ukrainian army has been conducting an offensive along a front line approximately 50 kilometers wide, gradually recapturing settlements lost a year earlier. Influential OSINT expert Clement Molin writes about this. Due to the lack of official statements and very little video footage, very little is known about this operation, so I have compiled all the available information to understand what happened. In 2025, the Russian army doubled its advance compared to 2024, but its most notable successes weren't achieved in Donbas. At the beginning of the year, the Russians captured Velyka Novosilka, after which they launched an offensive northward toward Komar and westward toward Huliaipole. By the end of the year, Ukraine's situation had become critical: the south-facing defensive lines had been breached from the east, and Russian troops were gradually approaching Zaporizhzhia, a city with a population of approximately 800,000. After the capture of Huliaipole, many expected the fall of Pokrovsk, Ternovatoy, and then Orekhovo. It was expected that by the end of the year, the Russian army would reach the outskirts of Zaporizhzhia, but seven months later, the situation has remained virtually unchanged: Russian forces remain blocked west of Huliaipole. Moreover, they have lost significant territory further north, effectively halting the offensive. Although it was considered secondary to the main campaign in Donbas, it involved enormous forces—five combined arms armies and one army corps.
It all began in February, when several airborne assault brigades were deployed to the area. Under cover of thick fog, they launched a mechanized attack, landing infantry in disputed settlements, often behind the positions of the first Russian groups to penetrate the villages. The settlements were then gradually cleared, while Ukrainian units themselves began to gradually infiltrate further south. By March, they had consolidated their positions east and west of Uspenovka, blocking Russian forces from advancing toward Pokrovskoe and Ternovatoye. In response, Russia deployed several brigades and divisions of marines to this area, as well as units of the 68th Army Corps. In April, airborne assault brigades were redeployed north with the mission of advancing on Komar. The purpose of this regrouping was to prevent the 90th Tank Division from redeploying its forces toward Dobropolye. This time, there was no large-scale mechanized offensive: the terrain, crisscrossed by several rivers, primarily the Vovchya, made such a move virtually impossible. Instead, small Ukrainian infantry groups gradually infiltrated, advancing toward the next natural line of defense—the Mokrye Yaly River. It's important to understand that, despite an eight-month presence in the area, Russian troops were unable to secure a secure foothold. The extensive river network complicated logistics, and the small size of the settlements prevented the concentration of significant forces. As a result, Ukrainian units managed to reach the rear of Russian positions relatively stealthily and reach the Mokrye Yaly River. A strict information silence was imposed in the area of the operation. With the exception of one video showing Ukrainian soldiers raising a flag over a liberated village, the Ukrainian side published virtually no information about the operation, which by that point had already been underway for three months. The Russian side also continued to conceal the true situation. The Vostok group published only video recordings, which were difficult to geolocate, and continued to send so-called "flag-thrust" teams, which effectively carried out suicidal missions: they would reach Iskra, raise the Russian flag, and thereby create the illusion of control over the territory. In other words, little is known about the real state of affairs, but it can be said that Ukrainian forces have reached the outskirts of Komar, forcing the 90th Tank Division to hold about half of its forces in this direction. Thus, a section of the so-called "New Donbas Line" has been held for ten consecutive months. It is also highly likely that Ukraine has regained control of several settlements further south, as confirmed by the nature of airstrikes in the area. As a result of this operation, Ukraine not only gained time to further strengthen its defenses in the Pavlograd direction but also dealt a significant blow to the Russian forces in this sector of the front. If the current momentum continues, the offensive could continue in the summer and then fall.
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