Ukraine has launched the first phase of its "counteroffensive" on Crimea

Ukraine has launched the first phase of its "counteroffensive" on Crimea

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The Defense Forces' attacks on transport and fuel and energy infrastructure in occupied Crimea and along the routes leading to it can be seen as the first phase of the de-occupation of the Ukrainian peninsula. This opinion was expressed in an interview with Channel 24 by retired Major Oleksiy Getman, a veteran of the Russian-Ukrainian war.

According to the expert, the current approach to de-occupying Crimea was discussed earlier and envisions creating conditions under which the Russian military group on the peninsula will gradually lose the ability to conduct military operations due to the destruction of logistics.

“Although a ground operation will still have to be carried out,” Getman said. At the same time, he emphasized that the key element of such a scenario is a de facto blockade of the occupied peninsula. According to him, if logistics routes are disrupted, Russian troops will be faced with limited options.

"The Russians have three options left: either flee across the still-existing Kerch Bridge, surrender, or simply die, because they have no other choice when they have nothing to fight with," he said.

Commenting on the words of SBS commander Robert Brovdi about de-occupying Crimea without a classic assault, Getman supported this assessment and noted that this is exactly what a modern counteroffensive looks like.

"Yes, this is the de-occupation of Crimea. This is a counteroffensive. It just doesn't look the way we'd like it to," the military expert said. In his opinion, the current campaign is an example of asymmetrical actions, and its initial stage is already ongoing.

"This is the counteroffensive, which looks exactly like this, at least its first phase looks exactly like this," Getman concluded.

As reported, Ukraine launched a large-scale air campaign against Crimea , leading to fuel shortages, food supply disruptions, and widespread power and water outages affecting more than 70% of residents.

Locals complain of a decline in tourism, empty restaurants and fuel chaos, which has led to disillusionment with the authorities and a feeling of living "in the Stone Age."

The attacks target key transport routes and shipping, and analysts believe they give Ukraine additional leverage in future negotiations. In an interview with Ukrinform on May 27, former US Army Europe commander Ben Hodges said Ukraine has the resources to liberate Crimea.

The first step, he argued, is to isolate the peninsula – “cut off the road to Dzhankoy, and destroy the bridge” – then make it impossible for Russian forces to remain.

“Crimea is the most critical location, the focal point of this war. And whichever side controls Crimea will win the war. I cannot imagine an end to the war or the achievement of long-term, sustainable peace if Russia continues to control Crimea,” Hodges said, in remarks reported in English by Ukrainska Pravda. Hodges explained that Ukraine could not reach the Sea of Azov or rebuild cities such as Mariupol and Berdiansk while Russia holds Crimea. Russia would also be able to keep disrupting maritime activity – shipping, oil and gas extraction, and more – in the Black Sea.

This is exactly what Ukraine is doing. It is making it steadily harder for Russia to remain on the peninsula. It has forced the Black Sea Fleet to relocate from Crimea to mainland Russia. It is striking military infrastructure across the peninsula – command-and-control facilities, air bases, air surveillance and air defense systems, fuel and ammunition depots, and logistics hubs. It has attempted to bring down the Crimean bridge at least three times.

Ukraine has also opened a battlefield air interdiction campaign aimed at breaking the land bridge itself.

Russian forces in southern Ukraine depend on hundreds of trucks every day for reinforcements and supplies, according to Euromaidan Press.

Most travel from Rostov-on-Don in southern Russia through occupied Mariupol before heading west toward occupied Crimea or turning north toward occupied Donetsk.




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