Phillies Inconsistencies On Display In Series Losses to Dodgers and Yankees | Hittin' Season

From WHYY, it is hitting season. I'm John Stolnes from The Good Fight. You can follow me on X and Blue Sky at John Stolnes. Coming up, Phillies come out of this all-star break with a big homestand. They had the Mets. They had the Dodgers. They had the Yankees. A real litmus test. Are the Phillies for real? And they lose all three series coming out of the all-star break and did not look very good doing it for most of these different games. A real Jekyll and Hyde performance, winning one game in each of the three series, but looking pretty awful in each of the three series where they lost both those games. We're going to get into all of it here. We're going to talk about the offense. We're going to talk about the pitching. We're going to talk about the defense. And of course, the trade deadline is right around the corner. We're recording here on Monday morning, a little after 10 a.m. Eastern time, July 27th, the trade deadline about a week away. So it's going to really start to happen this week, folks. So we got a big roundtable edition of the podcast. Justin Clue, Liz Roescher, both here with me. Liz, of course, is the editor of Sabre's Baseball Research Journal. You can follow her on X and Blue Sky at Liz Roescher. Liz, how are we feeling here after an interesting last nine games? I'm feeling pretty putrid. I'd say the Phillies are playing pretty putrid. It's the only word I can think of right now. We've watched most of the game on Sunday night. At least that was good. Every other time I tuned in over the past week has been exceedingly unpleasant. Yeah, I shudder to think where this podcast would be starting off here if they'd lost on on Sunday night. At least they did give you some kind of springboard into your week. But overall, a really depressing performance by the team here coming out of the all-star break. We've got Justin Clue of Baseball Prospectus. Of course, he hosts a couple of podcasts over at our hit and season Patreon called The Dirty Inning and Absolutely Hammered. You can follow him on Blue Sky at Justin Clue. He's also author of Summer of the Cheap Wieners, the book you can see right over his right shoulder there. Follow him on Blue Sky at Justin Clue, as I just said. Justin, how's it going, buddy? If these hitting trends continue, we'll be back to seeing 1941 Phillies statistics in the headlines in no time. Obviously, one baseball game is too much to have an emotional reaction over. A long-term emotional... to draw conclusions, let's say. Emotional reactions can happen whenever you want to have them. But to draw a conclusion after one game is dramatic, and I think we all know the short-sightedness of that. You start looking at groups of nine or ten games, and I think that's when perhaps the worm starts to turn a bit. And here we are, nine games deep into the second half, and I gotta tell you, since our last conversation, I've become much more interested in trading every prospect to fix any problem this team has, because really, how much time is left after this, and they kind of look like they're gonna have problems they have until there's some kind of solution presented. There is no, like, in-house fix. There's no, like, well, the offense will just score more by doing more things than and become consistent. It won't happen. It won't happen. I'm sure in some ways we've all come to terms with that, but these three straight series that people have been eyeing up since the beginning of the season, three big opponents right in a row, right at home, thinking this would be some sort of proven ground for the Phillies, well, you know, here we are, they went 3-6. It was a bunch of ugly losses, and heads up, Liz, but Shea Langeleers tore his meniscus, so there's not a whole lot of great news for the Phillies on this Monday morning. God, that, oh no. Yeah, yeah, so Shea Langeleers is off the trade market for anybody who's wondering, because he's out for the year, yeah. Gotta find a new slant. Yeah, you gotta rewrite some articles here. Yeah, the Phillies enter Monday, like Justin said, they lost 2-3 against the Mets, the Dodgers, and the Yankees, each 3-6 on the homestand. They've lost three straight series coming out of the All-Star break, all at home. They are now, all of a sudden, five and a half games behind the Braves in the National Leagues. Still doing fine in terms of the wildcard. They have a two-game lead on the second wildcard spot over the Diamondbacks, and a three-game lead overall. I mean, I look at this team now, I know they're gonna make the playoffs. I know there's a lot of people really worried they're not gonna make the playoffs. The National League teams behind the Phillies in the standings, it's a lot of yuck. I mean, as many holes as the Phillies have, they have enough stars on this team that they're gonna outlast the Diamondbacks, and the Pirates, and the Reds, and all those kinds of teams. You know what I mean? They're going to do that. But we're all looking to October right now. And there's a reason why, after these last 10 days, this nine-game homestand against, the Mets are not a good team, but specifically against the I'm as down on this team as I think I've been, really, since the end of the 2022 season, when I lit into them right before they got hot and went on that run in October. They are now 13-27. 13 wins, 27 losses versus teams currently in a playoff position. 13-27 against teams this year currently in a playoff position. Only the Royals, who are in last place in the American League Central, have a worst record against current playoff teams. They have the worst defense in baseball. Trey Turner made his league-leading 18th error. He's on pace for 28 errors at shortstop, but it's not just him. They struggle on defense pretty much around the horn at this point, in the outfield. Everywhere, they're kind of leaking oil defensively. Offensively, an inconsistent Phillies offense. We're going to dive into that more specifically here in just a They lost again with the No. 5 spot in the rotation. They have not won a game since the No. 5 spot in the rotation, going back to May 18th, and there's nothing on the horizon here in-house to help. We're all looking at the trade deadline to try and solve a lot of these problems, to solve a lot of these, to get a lot of answers, and I just don't know that there's a whole lot of answers out there for a deeply flawed Phillies team that has enough talent, enough topside talent, to help them keep winning games. They're going to avoid long losing streaks because they have all of this top-tier talent, but you see the way they play. Poor fundamentals on the bases, bad defense, an inconsistent offense, and Justin, I mean, they're going to make trades, but they can't fix all the problems in trades either, and so, you know, I think the fan base is, and you can see this in the attendance, the Phillies are not selling out Citizens Bank Park right now. I think the fan base has little confidence in this team, despite where they are in the standings, despite the fact they're probably going to make the playoffs again. The fan base is not coming out to these games in the way that they have in previous years, and there may be other reasons for that as well. I know it's super expensive and everything else, but I don't know. I think the fan base is down on the Phillies too at the moment, and for good reason. I don't think anybody believes in this team right now. Yeah, I mean, I think we knew coming in the past couple years that everybody's trying to speedrun to the postseason, but then if you're kind of putting out there in the regular season, even if it does feel like you're still going to make the playoffs, that you're the same kind of team with the same kind of problems that has lost in the postseason, then you kind of take that carrot away from people to an extent, and you're right. It's been ungodly miserable to be outside during the day, especially sitting out in the sun at a ballgame, wildfire smoke, and like you said, the complete unaffordability of going to a Major League Baseball game for a lot of people is going to factor against that. But the thing is, in Philadelphia, all that stuff becomes worth it when you're a team people want to come see, and when you're a team that drops three straight series at home like this, just looking kind of lumpy and lousy, yeah, that's not going to be a huge draw for people. Now, as for the actual baseball playing itself, the Phillies have won three games since the All-Star break. They have hit 12 home runs since the All-Star break. Eight of those 12 home runs were in the three wins that they won. Wow. They have scored 27 runs combined in those three wins, they have scored nine runs combined in their six losses. It's kind of easy to kind of track what the problem is here. They are tied for fifth in baseball and homers since the All-Star break, they are tied for 16th in total runs scored since the All-Star break, that's with a lot of ties ahead of them. So a more accurate way to describe it is that there are only two National League teams who have scored fewer total runs than the Phillies since the All-Star break. One of them is the Mets, who are in last place and just beat them in a three-game series. And the other one is the Marlins, who they get to go play in Miami after this and have been, you know, kind of a pebble in the shoe of a lot of teams so far this year. So what's the conclusion? The offense works when they hit home runs and they aren't hitting enough home runs. This is a very familiar story for anybody who's been watching these Phillies the past few years. If they're not hitting home runs, often that means they're not scoring and if they're not scoring, often that means they're not winning. So that factors into the general crowd you're going to see at Citizens Bank Park too. Even if they do start hitting home runs, there's no guarantee that they will keep hitting home runs. With their depth issues, one chunk of miss time could sink a whole dimension of this team and the bullpen's enough of a disaster to require them to hit more home runs than perhaps they had planned to, and perhaps it's a pretty solid bet then that any relievers from that pen are going to be given some runs back as well, if not like a whole lead after you have already hit your home runs for the day. So that in general will leave you pretty infuriated if you're on the couch. If you've spent hundreds of dollars and roasted alive on a stadium seat, it's going to put you in an even worse mood. It's nice to come out on a Sunday night and win a game in primetime against the Yankees. Their offense looked good doing it. Their offense looked good, yeah. There's still like a general haze, like a layer of sloppiness over this team that makes them look different from a team that is playing efficiently and well and consistently. That looks like, yeah, they could go to the postseason and keep winning because it'll just be the postseason and there'll be more games to win. Whereas with the Phillies, it's like, I don't know, it might be wonky enough that they look like they shouldn't even be there. They might look aces enough that they can run through a team and a round or two, but like, there's just too much variation and too much reliant on things they can't control and too much stuff they can control that they do wrong. So yeah, that's great. The end result is simply that you get a team that's just messy and sloppy and gives you the same thing every time. Yeah, that was a mistake. It can't happen again. Well, guess what? It's going to. That's part of the problem too, that some of these flaws aren't just flaws. They're automatic. It's automatic. Trey Turner is going to create some kind of fielding misplay of some kind, whether it gets called an error or not every night. It's automatic that that fifth spot is going to lose you a baseball game because there's nobody in it who can pitch the way, you know, this team will occasionally need to get the offense going or pull back a putrid, like lame little offense that that they should be able to beat. And when stuff just turns into automatic, then you got a serious problem. It's not just like a flaw. It's something that other teams can and will exploit. So yeah, it's easy to look at this team right now after these three straight series losses and see a team that, yeah, people aren't getting excited about. Part of the issue is the fandom. I'd say this all feels so familiar. It feels the same as it did three years ago, as it did two years ago, as it did last year, really. And so when you see and feel it going the same way as it did the last few years, why do you want to participate in that? Late season Phillies baseball is torturous. We all know this because we do it all the time. Yeah, it is. And we haven't even gotten to late season yet. Right now it's mid-season Phillies baseball is torturous. And I think so much of torturous baseball is offense. And I want to start kind of with the offense. And I know I've seen many wizened people, and I think the Phillies front office is leaning in this direction too, who are talking about at the trade deadline the need for pitching. Pitching trumps everything else. And they do. They need another starting pitcher. They need help in the bullpen. There's no doubt about the fact that those two things are true. But what has fouled up the Phillies? I mean, and in October, I know that they have blown some late leads over the last couple of years. That's absolutely been the case as well. But in the playoffs, you need three great starters, which is what the Phillies have. The Phillies got great starting pitching performances against the Dodgers last year in the playoffs. It didn't matter. We saw it a couple of times during this homestand. They got great performances from Zach Wheeler and Jesus Lozardo and lost both of those games because they can't score consistently. After Saturday's 3-1 loss to the Yankees, it was the 25th time the Phillies had scored one run or fewer in a game. That's the most in Major League Baseball, and that's about a quarter of their games. In about a quarter of their games, they are scoring one or zero runs in the homestand. Justin alluded to this just a second ago. Here are the runs the Phillies scored by game 1 6 1 10 1 5 0 1 11. OK, this is you. You can't lay out inconsistently inconsistency any more obviously than that. And this this is all having to do with their biggest problem is not the home runs. It's not the batting average with runners in scoring position. Even right now, the Phillies have a 257 batting average with runners in scoring position this season. That's 11th best in baseball. Their slugging percentage with runners in scoring position is the best in baseball. Their 446 slugging percentage with the runners in scoring position is the best in baseball. That's the that's their only saving grace right now is occasional homer hot streaks from Schwerber and Harper. And the fact that when they do get runners on this year, they're actually doing some damage in those situations. Now, I hope that continues. But the fact that they so rarely are getting guys on base, they're not working pitchers, they're not working counts in the game against Cam Schlittler on Friday night. They struck out 13 times with zero walks. I know Schlittler is great. He's either going to win the American League Cy Young or finish runner up. But they've done this against every decent to good starting pitcher in the league this year, not named Paul Skeens. Skeens is the one guy they've gotten to this year. Everybody else, if you've got a fastball, they are shutting you down. And I don't know why Paul Skeens up. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, it's so you have an offense here that also struggles against left handed pitching. Ryan Weathers on Saturday night is a great exam, maybe the best example of their struggles against lefties. This is a middling left handed starter came into the game with an era in the low fours four to five era following the game. We went five and two thirds innings, gave up one run, struck out seven and walked only one against the Phillies. I mean, this is just it's it's it's on base percentage. They're not getting on base. They're three or three on base. Percentage is the worst in baseball. Tied with the Blue Jays for the worst in baseball. The only way they can score as Justin gave you the numbers with the home runs. The only way they can score is if they get homer happy. And you can make that work for a couple of weeks. It worked in June for a lot of June. We saw it work in the twenty twenty two playoffs for up until game three of the World Series. It worked for a game for the World Series. It worked for them. But if you can't if you can't generate walks, if you can't generate good at bats, if you can't constantly have guys getting on base like the good offenses do, you're going to go out and you're going to go zero, one, ten, one, five, zero, one, ten. That's how you can't play consistent baseball that way. And that's that's why I think no matter who what anybody tells you about what their most important needs are at the trade deadline, it's a bat at least one like they've they've if there is a possibility, if there is a chance that someone out there can be brought in to help this offense be more consistent, a high on base guy, a table setter or two to put at the top of the lineup. That's what they have to prioritize more than the pitching, because I think they can figure the pitching out. They can't figure out this offense with it currently constructed this way. Do you think one guy I know you just said one or two, but do you think one guy can make that difference? I mean, probably not on his own, but we've seen how one guy can kind of transform things. I mean, Harrison Bader really helped transform things last year, and he was just kind of one guy. I think if you get a really good on base guy at the top of that lineup, it does change some things. That's why I do think maybe they do need to focus on because I don't think they're going to get a star. So I think maybe they do need to get a couple of guys who really specialize in getting on base. And just so you can have some guys in the lineup who just won't make a pitcher work a little bit even, you know, I mean, it doesn't even you don't even always have to get on base if you're just making a pitcher work. I mean, we've seen the Phillies, we've seen Turner and Boehm have some really good at bats over the course of the last couple days, some long at bats, 13 pitch at bats, 12 pitch. Those are great. And usually if you make a pitcher pitch that much, he's going to throw you a mistake. But the Phillies just don't do that. So many easy bad at bats. But I agree with you, Justin. I don't know. Like, can Mike Trout to throw out a name? Would he magically fix the Phillies lineup? I don't know that he I don't know that he does, but I know that I think he would be more. I know that I think I know that he would be more impactful than going out and getting Griffin can't or what it was was the Nationals pitcher Foster Griffin. Yeah. I mean, Trout solves your attendance problem for about a week as well. But I imagine that with the LeBron news. Yeah. The city would explode. I'm generally I'm generally with you, John. It's not even a question I'm asking, like, facetiously, like, is there one man who changes the line? I know that we've seen that happen before. But if there is a guy, we need that guy for sure. We need the biggest impact from the profile person you can acquire, because that's what the Phillies are equipped to do. And that's who's going to be available to them. And don't forget, there are other teams lining up for those same guys who can pay more for them, or perhaps put together a more enticing offer. So that's quite the challenge they've got ahead of them. I think you're going to wind up with like, a three man cocktail that not everyone is thrilled about as far as being like their move at the deadline. But then again, I don't think people are going to have the right to be disappointed in what the Phillies do, because at no point has anybody have the Phillies made it clear that, like, this is going to be some sort of big blockbuster thing. Like, everyone knows where we're shopping. You can't be disappointed when they don't get trout or something. Yeah, I mean, Liz, I think what a great deal. I mean, I look at the deal that the Nationals made with the Red Sox, the Red Sox picking up Curtis Meade, who obviously was a former Phillies farmhand, was it was the one on one trade for Christopher Sanchez. The Nationals traded Curtis Meade, who's having a terrific season at the plate for a left handed starter named Connelly Early, who's in his second season. He pitched phenomenally for the Red Sox down the stretch a season ago, and it was having a very good season. He's on the injured list, but we'll be getting off the injured list in a few in a few days. That's the kind of player the Phillies really kind of needed to go after. But the Phillies don't have a young starting pitcher that they can give up or even a prospect. I mean, Andrew Painter, maybe. But Connelly Early right now has more trade value than somebody like Andrew Painter because Early's done it. We've seen him be effective at the major league level like this. That's the kind of move I would love to see the Phillies make. But to the point we've been making the last few weeks, I don't think they have somebody like that that would help them get a player like Curtis Meade. I hope I'm wrong. Maybe I'm misjudging and undervaluing the Phillies farm system and their prospects. I don't know. It would be great if it was one guy. But the Phillies don't, as you said, they don't have enough guys, any good guys to trade for one-on-one or maybe even two. Speaking of a cocktail, they're going to have to throw together something pretty complicated if they want to get something valuable back in return because they don't even have any near major league ready guys. Andrew Painter might be worth, maybe not a throw-in, but he'd be worth a team taking a player since he just made the majors. I think he still has a lot of potential, a lot of changes he can go through. But even that feels a little bit like a stretch. And as Justin said, there's no one guy out there. This is all just, it's like one of those stupidly hard puzzles that are all one color. And you're just like trying to fit the pieces in and none of them are going to work right. And so you've got a puzzle, but it's like there's pieces like upwards and shifting and it's terrible. That's what this to you feels like to me. It's what this trade deadline feels like it's going to be. It's just going to be a mess of pieces that they have to pound with a hammer to get into place and nothing ever works well like that. We talked about this on Friday, but do you, John, take Dave Dombrowski at his word when him and Preston Mattingly and other people in the development are like, no, there's interest in our players. There's more interest in our farm system than people would probably think. Or there's those guys lower down that have somebody's eye. Don't worry about our players being valued because they are being valued was the general idea coming from the Phillies. I think it's a load of nonsense, to be honest with you. I don't believe it. But here's the problem. You say that? Well, then the fan base is going to expect you to then use these prospects that a lot of teams have interest in to go get real help. Don't forget about all that money we're getting from the energy deck. Remember, John Middleton really said there's a big free agent we can get with that money now. So don't remember that, John Middleton. People don't forget. Sorry. Go ahead. I just think people don't forget. Yeah. Yeah. Well, I I think if if Dombrowski and Preston Mattingly are saying that merely to rebuff the criticism that I have had and others have had vocally about the farm system, which was ranked 29th by Baseball America just a few weeks ago, then they can do that if it's a face saving thing. But now you're telling the fan base, OK, we actually do have real prospects that people want. So the expectation is going to then be great. Bring in real help. And if they don't bring in real help and they say, well, you know, other teams had better packages or whatever the excuse they're going to use is, you could you can fire back and say, but you said we have all this talent in the minor league system when I know I can see with my own eyes what's going on in the minor league system. I can see what's going on with Aiden Miller, who's trading for Aiden Miller right now with a bad back. I am sure that teams would love to trade for Andrew Painter. I think he still has probably more value than maybe we think he does around the league. I don't know that he would not be a throw in in any deal. He would likely headline any deal the Phillies make here at the trade deadline. But his trade value is undoubtedly taking a hit. I think there's a lot of question. He's had a really good week in Lehigh Valley this last week. He pitched great on Sunday and looked much better. There's reason for a little bit of optimism there because he is so young and you feel like, OK, the more he pitches after the surgery, maybe the fastball will come back and all that stuff. But man, Dave Dombrowski, if he's going to try to sell me that there's a lot of interest in the guys, the Phillies have great then bring then bring in the help because because the Phillies need it. They need bats. They need relievers and they need a starting pitcher. And if they're going to use their big like Foster Griffin is going to be their big acquisition, this trade deadline. Let me throw this out to you guys. Like if it's Foster Griffin and then they get like like a Spencer steer for a bad and like a couple of non closer, non elite type relievers, but guys who are interesting, you know, how do you feel about that trade deadline? Let's start with you. How do you how do you feel about that trade deadline? If it's Foster Griffin, who's like a number three starter on a good rotation, he probably slot in as a number four on the Phillies. You get a number four starter, a good one, you know, and you slide Aaron Nola to number five and you do all that. And then you kind of get like a right handed bench bat and you get a reliever or two that you like their peripherals. Does that do it for you? I mean, that's a lot of moves. And I mean, I don't know if it would do it for me, but I wouldn't be upset. I wouldn't be angry about it. I don't know. Like, it's a lot of moves and he's it would be Dombrowski attempting to actually fill some holes that we see, not holes that he sees that he's filling, you know, somewhere else. It's holes that we see that are being filled. So I'd be fine. I'd be fine with that. I don't think I'd thrilled is the right word, but I'd be totally fine with Justin. Yeah, this would be right at the level I would expect them to be fighting for. Honestly, I'm kind of expecting to like, I don't know, just get a player that like, I feel like they're wading into these waters with players that I just generally don't like. And like, they're willing to just compromise on stuff like that. But if they were if they went like Foster Griffin, I would feel like there was stability in an area where there had been literally none for a long time, like I'm talking about automatic losses. Yeah. Yeah. That that solves that problem, because Foster Griffin's not an automatic loss. He is a big get for the Nationals in that acquiring him age 31 season after he's been playing in Japan. And now he's somebody that people want to acquire at the trade deadline. That's a big win for the big win for the Nationals. Yeah. Just like the Curtis Meade trade was. So they've got somebody people want and he's and it's not like a total mirage either. He's kept that era under three throwing a cutter and a four seamer. I mean, this is what the Phillies have been missing at the back of the rotation, a guy who can just go out there, even if you just even if he's just supposed to be an innings eater. I mean, he's served more than that purpose with Washington. So if he comes to Philadelphia in a trade and continues that work, that is more than you've gotten out of that spot all season long with like three, four different guys getting that role. And you don't have to keep throwing bullpen games on a team with a crappy bullpen. So taking the automatic part of a loss away is, I think, of great value for this team that is really, you know, doing that thing again where they just win win coolly one out of every three games, which is not a great pace to be winning at. Right. Yeah. I mean, I think so here here's kind of what I would love. Well, let me ask you, let me throw another kind of scenario at you here, because like you said, the number five starter issue is an automatic loss at this point. They've gotten no wins from their number five starter since May 18th. You know, the Brian Keller story is a great story. He pitched on Saturday night, a 32 year old rookie making his major league debut. He had all these surgeries when he went to Japan a couple of years ago, had to pay twelve thousand dollars out of his pocket for Tommy John's for a second Tommy John surgery in order to try and get back to the big leagues. Former thirty ninth round pick in twenty sixteen. You know, I think that's the same draft they got I think if I'm not mistaken, I might I might be wrong about that. Twenty fourteen is Aaron Nola. OK, sorry. So, yeah. So a couple of seasons after Aaron Nola, that would make sense based on the age. But a great story. And I would love it if Brian Keller was the answer was the fix. You know, he's been great in Triple A. He's not he's he's not. And, you know, the bloom will come off that will come off the island like it came off the Allen on Ron Hell Rose. Right. I mean, he was he had a couple of starts in the majors that were OK, pitched great in Triple A. They need they need they do need somebody here to to stabilize that that rotation. And so I like I like as a pitcher, I like Foster Griffin. I think he's he's one less left handed starter. The Phillies would need to face this year, too. So it's you're kind of helping both sides of the coin there, you know, with the offense. I think if you here's here's the type of trade deadline I can see the Phillies having. And let me know if you think I'm kind of going if I'm shooting too high here. Foster Griffin, you bring in Foster Griffin as your number four starter. You get Heliot Ramos from the Giants. I think it's a guy they like a lot. I don't know how much I like him. He is a right handed hitter. He has a couple of seasons with more than 20 home runs. He's like a two, three win player, but like a two and a half win player at his peak. But he's a decent right handed hitting outfielder. And maybe you get him out of San Francisco. He hits better at Citizens Bank Park. Then the other guy that has been linked to Phillies this week is their old friend, Jeff Hoffman. OK, I'm just going to cut you off right there and show you my my notebook where I have those three names written down as the three names that I feel like, yeah, based on the rumors you've heard and what it feels like the Phillies are going to do. That's your cocktail. Yeah. OK, so we're an incredible. That's amazing. Yeah. Well, Justin, I did not talk about that beforehand. So, yeah, he's I and I'm not just going based off of like with those feel like Dave Dombrowski moves that feels like a Dave Dombrowski trade deadline. And so I guess I don't know what they'd have to give up, how much of their farm system they would have to give up to to get all those guys. I mean, I think the fact that Jeff Hoffman is kind of expensive means you don't have to really give up a whole lot in terms of prospects for him. Foster Griffin is going to be your big ticket item there. He really is. Rollercoaster ride for Jeff Hoffman and his stops elsewhere, too. So it's not even like that's like, all right, we got like we're talking about what if they got Mason Miller to pair with John Duran a couple weeks ago and now we're like, what if they got Jeff Hoffman? You're like, yeah, what if they got Jeff Hoffman? And that's part of the reason why it feels like a move they could do this year in that he has been pretty underwhelming, I think, for large chunks of his closing career in Toronto. So yeah, in a way, that's like both a turnoff, but also makes it seem like it's more possible that that would be a solution they'd throw in with the rest of that group. I have kind of come around on Helio Ramos. I'm not saying there's anybody that I would be excited to be honest to see this team get. I feel like maybe a Dave Dombrowski surprise of some kind, not like a big name, but just like a different name that you hadn't considered is always on the table. But Ramos is cool because Ramos crushes lefties. The disparity in his lefty versus righty numbers is obviously huge. He'd be that right-handed hitter that you've been missing. He's 26, doesn't hit arbitration until next year. So there's a lot to like there. But the problem is then the more things you list that you like, the more you wonder, is this a guy the Phillies can truly acquire in a market where other teams are looking for the same guy? But if he was the bat that they got, I would be on board with that. He is a player that statistically fits into the hole this offense has created for itself. Liz, what would you think of that triumvirate? I like it. I think it's good. I have always had an eye on Helio Ramos. I do not like good players or decent players being on the Giants, so it'd be great if we could save him. And I also approve of trading with the Giants because they're run by Buster Posey, who is not the brightest baseball light bulb in the box. And I always favor trading with teams who don't really know what they're doing. And I'm going to say Buster Posey, I don't think he totally knows what he's doing. So I'd like them to trade with him. I mean, I don't dislike Hoffman. His throwing partner is no longer with us, sadly, Matt Strom. But I hope he would find a better home here and find a little bit more consistency back with the team that allowed him to get that contract with the Blue Jays. He came back in a big, bad way with the Phillies and it paid off for him. And unfortunately, he did not live up to it. But I sort of have some hope that maybe back here, he could find a little bit more consistency. I agree that if you catch Buster Posey alone in his office, you could take the Giants for a ride. I don't think that's a joke. I think that's true. I wouldn't say it if I didn't think it's true. He's just not a bright baseball mind. So a couple of things with Jeff Hoffman. He's been really up and down with the Blue Jays. He's been really great at times and he's been really terrible at times. I think we kind of saw that during his Phillies career as well. His ERA this year, 4.30. But in June, it was 0.75. In July, it was 2.84. I mean, this is what the Phillies relievers are. They'll have, like Kirkering will have a month or two with an ERA under one. And then he'll have a couple of months where he can't stop walking two guys every time out. I mean, there's just a lack of confidence there. The difference between going out and getting somebody like Mason Miller versus Jeff Hoffman is worlds apart just in terms of confidence. But I understand Mason Miller. The Phillies aren't getting Mason Miller. That's just not happening. So Hoffman might be the best. Might be the best guy you can get. They need a lefty. They need a lefty reliever too. And so they've got to figure that out as well because Tanner Banks just went on the 60-day IL. He's pretty much done for the year now at this point too. So you need to get a lefty reliever. Jeff Hoffman is fine, but that doesn't solve the lefty reliever problem. And my only issue with Ramos is I'm intrigued by him. He's a young player. You'd have him under team control through 2030. So you'd have him for a long, long time. He's not an on-base guy. His overall on-base percentage right now is under 300, which is right in line with the rest of the Phillies. Against left-handers, it's about 333. So if he's only hitting against lefties, it's a little bit better. That's where a guy like Luis Arias would be a more preferable target. But then you worry about moving all the positions around. Somebody's got to move somewhere from the infield. Is it Bryce going back to right field? And if Bryce goes back to right field, is Arias a good enough first baseman that Harper would say, yeah, I'll go back to right field for Luis Arias? Probably not. I don't know that he would be. So I feel like the three names we laid out are an extremely likely three-headed trade deadline monster for Dave Dombrowski. And he would likely get lots of kudos for it. But how many problems it really solves is a great... It would solve the rotation problem, but I don't know how much it helps you in the bullpen or in the lineup. So I just, yeah, I think it's up in the air how much that would help. In general, I'm really eager to see what he does, just because there are two big problems that need solving, and they're both sort of on the same level. I'm eager to see what he does. If he puts all of his weight on one side or another, what does he consider to be the most important problem the Phillies have? And what he does with the rest of it, if he goes for one big guy, or if he decides a whole bunch of guys are the right idea. There are a lot of ways to go, and I'm eager to see what Dombrowski does this time, because he's done something a little different almost every trade deadline. I think the broadest question here is, you're talking about pitchers like Hoffman, okay, he has a great month and then a bad month, and you're kind of just hoping, all right, when he's here, hopefully we just catch more of the good months than the bad ones. And to a certain extent, that's just baseball. You're not getting perfect players who hit their ceilings 100% of the time in any trade. That's why those guys who can do that are superstars, and they're super uncommon. So the Phillies, let's imagine, they need to go into the postseason, regardless of what they do at the trade deadline, with all their plates spinning. And a lot of that is just kind of like luck, that you're catching Kyle Schwarber while he's hot, and Harper while he's hot, and maybe Bohm while he's hitting a little bit better. And you're getting stuff from guys who maybe you weren't getting it from before. One of the issues for this team so far this year, we've pointed out specifically, is that you didn't really get your hot Edmundo Sosa streak that you've kind of come to rely on for a month out of the season. So I guess my question then is, that is kind of just baseball. So how different from other contending teams are the Phillies in their need for guys to be hitting their ceilings at the right time, versus acquiring the right player? All you're going to wind up with is a lot of guys who you're just hoping are playing well, as well as they can, at the time you need them to play. And obviously the Dodgers seem to be immune to all of that, because they have the depth and the talent. But how many other playoff teams are kind of facing that same issue? And do the Phillies just seem worse because that's the team we watch on a daily basis? Or are they truly in a more precarious place? Despite that self-awareness, I think I still feel like the Phillies are in a deeper hole in that regard than the other teams they might be playing in the playoffs. I think you're right. I think there's the Dodgers and I would include the Brewers along with the Dodgers now. This is two straight years now where the Brewers are playing like one of the best teams in baseball. And last year they ran into that Dodgers pitching staff that shut everybody down the entire way until the World Series. I think the Brewers, nobody talks about Milwaukee, and it's because they've never really done it in the playoffs. So they feel like a really great regular season team and a team that doesn't have quite enough in the postseason in order to move through. But I think right now the Brewers have more going for them than the Phillies do. And I think teams like the, we saw this against the Dodgers, we saw it against the Yankees. Teams that are good don't beat themselves. And the problem with the Phillies is they beat themselves a lot. And that's just in their DNA, I think. And we saw it in the playoffs last year against the Dodgers. We've seen it in numerous different ways, going back to the 2023 NLCS, how the Phillies can beat themselves. And the Dodgers don't generally do that. The Brewers generally don't do that. But you're right. Most of the rest of the teams in the National League have similar issues to the Phillies. The Cardinals are not a better team than the Phillies, I don't think. I don't even think I would say that the Braves are a whole lot better than the Phillies right now. I mean, they're still missing Ronald Acuna Jr. And we don't know exactly when he is going to get back. I'd say right now, based on the standings, the Braves are better. We haven't seen the Braves in forever. But I think they're a more consistent team. But had a really awful month of June like the Phillies had in April. So they're not immune to it either. So it's a good question. We are so used to seeing this Phillies team fail in the same ways every year that I think we just automatically factor it in as part of their DNA. And that's why so many people want changes. It's like something's got to change. If it's the same players who are going to try this again, the same thing is going to happen. And that's why the trade deadline feels maybe like it's more important than it actually is. The thing with the Brewers is that you hear and then when you watch them, you see, you know, the whole reputation of they do the little things right. And part of you rolls your eyes at that statement every time. But then when you see what people are talking about, even like the first thing people will mention on that list is like, well, you hit the cutoff, man. And you're like, yeah, no kidding. You watch the last nine games with the Phillies think they have a bullseye on that cutoff, man, because I think we know that they don't. And that's one of just many sloppy defensive things you can see out there. I'll circle back to something I said earlier this week on another show, but that it was real Muto who committed that brain fart really ticked me off that it was him more so than other people. And that all you got was like, oh yeah, it was just a bad base running call, man. It was an inexplicably bad base running call. It doesn't make sense that you did that at 30 whatever years old and the position you have and the leadership you're supposed to have and the smarts you're supposed to have and the experience you're supposed to have. Why are you doing that? I don't care if it's the only time you did it in your career. That is the type of thing that this team has to forgive itself for night after night. And it's the difference between a win and a loss. And we're entering the part of the season where it's going to mean a lot more than that. Yeah, doing the little things right means you don't beat yourself every night. You don't get in your own way. You hit the cutoff man. You know where you're supposed to be base running. Those are the little things that Milwaukee cares about deeply. And those are the things that help them make it through the regular season without a superstar. Now, when they get to the playoffs, I think that's if they got like a big name star somewhere, anywhere, I think it would help boost them over the hump. But at the very least, it makes them a really good regular season team. And that's, you know, that's one of the big goals. It's the only way you make it to the playoffs. So it would be great if the Phillies cared a little bit more about that. And I don't think it would be hard to. Well, as long as Trey Turner remains at shortstop, it's going to be really hard for this team's defense to get any better. It just is like every night, every night there's going to be a ball hit to shortstop. He's going to miss play. He's either not going to turn the double play or he's going to allow an infield hit or it's going to be a straight up error. And maybe it allows a runner to score or something like it's just going to be something with Trey Turner and Trey Turner has been the best hitter on the Phillies in the month of July. And so, again, I think, of course, generally speaking, we would make the trade of great offensive Trey Turner, even if it means bad defense Trey Turner. But I don't know. Even that has its limits. I think we're seeing if you're committing an error every night, you're really it's a real problem, especially in a short series. And that's really what we're thinking about October. We're just thinking about October here. That's really what we're coming down to. I mean, think of the good. Sorry. I would really love to know what he truly thinks about all this because he gets asked every time, like, you know, I know I shouldn't have done that. You know, it'll never happen again. What is he actually doing? And does he think he needs to do something? Because people like with these big name players, they're not going to actually, you know, practice grounders. They're this old. They've been in the league this long. I'm like, maybe he needs to. Maybe he needs to actually do that and take time and do the basics. Like, it's not going to hurt you. It's really frustrating to see all this stuff and sort of feel like Turner's not doing anything about it. You know, just continuing to play when you've continually made these mistakes is not, no, I don't like it. Turner makes an error short with two outs. There's a man on base. Pitcher's got to throw more pitches to get out of that. And if it's a bullpen arm, he's giving up another base hit or something. He's walking a guy. If it's a starter who thought they were going to be coming out, it's the difference between five and two-thirds innings with more men on base that he's got to worry about when he comes out of the game versus like six innings of sharper pitch fall. The impact of this is what I'm saying is it's more than just Trey Turner. All of these issues bleed into each other. You spend the last couple of weeks trying to pick one to solve and hope that it kind of has a positive effect on more than one area. But you can just see every night and like we're saying, it just gets old hearing like, yeah, I just got to get better. I don't need to hear what he's doing to get better. I'm certainly not going to tell him how to get better. All you do is turn that game on every night and you see it happen over and over again. You see pitchers get into more trouble and have to throw more pitches and the physical toll that takes on them because he goofed it. He goofed it again. And some nights it's more than one error, but they don't call it an error. And it's clearly an issue. It's great to see them come out and be like, well, Trey Turner's our shortstop, but there's also this comical aspect to that. When you think of, then he comes out the next night and oopsie daisies your way into another couple of runs for the other team. Like that's just, that's the problem that it's rapidly approaching the point where it's really got to be addressed, but how can you? It's the kind of issue that's perfectly set to be complicated at this point in the season, at this point in his career, at this point with this roster. It's not like there's an automatic solution here. There's just a lot of automatic problems. Yeah. Well, and I think, go ahead, Liz. Yeah. I'm going to say what's even more frustrating is that the number of errors that he commits that are called base hits, he's having a bigger impact than we even know because half, you know, I would say probably at least a quarter of the time, some of his errors are called as base hits and they're not entirely, that's not entirely true. If he had not screwed up, it would definitely have not been a base hit. The scorers could do whatever they want, but I mean, that's like a whole other aspect. Like there are a bunch of errors he's committed that are not marked as errors and that's also impacting the Phillies. Like I was thinking, I wonder if I went through and like calculated how many runs he allowed from each of his errors and I'm like, but there are so many errors that aren't even counted that I'll look at and be like, that's an error that definitely cost a run, but it's a base hit. Like this is a huge problem the more I think about it. It's like massive and it is frustrating that no one is talking about what they're doing about it. Well, it's interesting you say that because there was a play against the Dodgers, Andy Pajes hit a ball to shortstop that was ruled an infield hit at the time and just over the weekend was changed into an error on Trey Turner. So they took a little batting average away from Pajes. They took a little ERA away from Christopher Sanchez. So Christopher Sanchez got his ERA lowered a little bit thanks to that scoring decision. So that's a positive, but Trey Turner now on pace for 28 errors this season, which would obviously be the most in Major League Baseball. And a couple other things just from the weekend. It appears now that Brandon Marsh is officially back to being a platoon outfielder. Don Mattingly has been looking at Marsh's plate appearances against lefties and deciding that it now looks as though all three outfield positions on this $300 million roster are going to be platoons. So that's fun. That's what you wanted at the start of the season for sure. And in July, Bryce Harper is hitting 153 with a 279 on-base percentage and a 278 slugging percentage. He has one home run, six doubles, and a 557 OPS here in the month of July. Schwarber's power number is way down in July. Do we believe in all-star fatigue for Marsh, Harper, Schwarber? Is that a real thing? No. Maybe it's a real thing, but I think you can also just point to the general swoopiness of all three of those players' offensive outputs. The miracle of Brandon Marsh was that he was able to consistently play at the level he'd been playing at for a couple of months, long enough to get into the all-star game. This is not entirely unexpected. The reason he was being played up so much is because, oh, he's finally shaken free of this curse. And, well, curses like that don't that easily. And hitting is fluid. You gotta be making adjustments as they're adjusting to you. So that is an issue that is disappointing but not surprising. And then, you know, Schwarber, Harper, they're a part of this same offense that comes and goes as it pleases. And we did talk about on Friday that, yeah, the big three from the first half of this season is very different from the big three of the offense now, where you've got guys like Bohm is statistically hitting better, Real Butoh is statistically hitting better. When you get contributions, you're getting them from a different set of guys at this point, which is, again, how this offense works. You can never get all of them hot at the same time, which is part of why it doesn't work. I think ultimately you expect and you'll want to see more, especially from Schwarber and especially from Harper. I don't think it's fair to say that, yeah, you should just lump it all into, well, they're inconsistent and they always have been. Do you guys want to win or not? It does come down to it. Sometimes a superstar has just got to keep playing like a superstar. So we said you were playing like an elite guy earlier in the season, Bryce, when you were. Those aren't elite numbers that John just read out loud. So maybe get those back up again because you do need Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber hitting for this team Yeah. By the way, and this is an on-base, again, it's an on-base percentage problem. Schwarber and Harper are going to go into homer droughts. Like they just, they are, they are. The way you get around that is by having a bunch of guys in your lineup who can get on base and just, you have constant traffic so that if you get the single from Bryce Harper, you score a couple of runs. If you get a contribution from Trey Turner or whoever, you're still able to score runs on base percentages on this team. Schwarber leads at three 65 Harper's at three 57 marshes at three 28, which is okay, but that's not a great number. It's okay. JT rail Muto's on-base percentages. Three Oh two. You've got Trey Turner at two 95 and Mundo Sosa's two 49, Justin Crawford, three Oh four. Alec bone, two 82. Like these are, these are the on-base percentages littered throughout this, throughout this lineup. It's just, it's not good enough and they're not going to have a consistent offense this way, by the way. Just as we're wrapping up here, I want to ask you guys a little trivia question without looking at the numbers on baseball reference. There are four Phillies players who are currently worth more than one win above replacement. Just four of them. Can you name the four players who are above one win replacement in terms, in terms of position players? Oh, so not, not pitchers. Schwarber is one of them. Yes. Yeah. He's gotta be. Yep. He leads with two and a half. Um, I mean, I feel like the question is being asked because the obvious answers aren't part of it, but I feel like I got to say Harper Harper's one of them. Yeah. Um, yeah. 1.8 wins above replacement for Harper, by the way, again, not phenomenal, but 1.8 for Harper. I feel like Marsha's defense is stuck. Marsha's the next one. One, Marsha's one of them. 1.6. So who's number four? Who's number four? Nope. Hang on. Is it Rincones? Nope. Nope. Okay. But you're on the right track, Liz. I thought it might be. Yeah. Liz, it's your favorite player. Oh my God. Still? Is it Adolos Garcia? No, it's not Adolos Garcia. He's my favorite player. No. From this seat, from this year. Yeah. That's far. Wow. Okay. No, we joked about it on the last round table, how this was your guy. As a human. I like Adolos Garcia. Now I don't remember who it is. I turned 43 over the weekend, so. He's been making diving catches in center field all season long. Derrick Hill. Derrick Hill. With a 1.5 wins above replacement, the fourth highest war on the Phillies so far this year. Derrick Hill has played in 29 games, folks. And he has a 1.5. What an amazing pickup. I'm going to look at this positively. What a pickup. Exactly the pickup this team needs. Let's do more of that. Yep. Yep. Totally. That's a great way of looking at it. I like the glasses half full, the rosy look on things. Justin, that's your nature. You're just a glasses half full guy. Just generally speaking, I think. That's right. Check the comments of anything. That's all they're saying about me. That's right. When will Justin stop being so positive? Too tall. Too handsome. That's right. Too charming. I know. Enough already. All right. Well, we got a week until the trade deadline, so we're going to be busy here on the podcast and Justin on Baseball Prospectus. Me on The Good Fight. Liz, she's online. We'll be responding to all the different things that are going down here. But let's wrap up this episode with some final thoughts. Justin, final thoughts. First, she just referred to it, but happy birthday to Elizabeth over the weekend. Thank you. Celebrated her birthday. That's right. Happy birthday, Liz. I was starting to suspect something like this was happening, and then Phillies Nation published a blog that confirmed it. Every time you look up and the Phillies are getting hit by a pitch with the bases loaded, it's always one guy. I know it's not literally, it can't have always been that over the past, let's just say, five years, or since Alec Boehm has been here, but boy, it sure does feel like it's him every time. And now, statistics prove, basically it is, in that Alec Boehm surpassed, guess who, Chase Utley as the most hit by a pitch with the bases loaded player in Philadelphia Phillies franchise history with six. He doesn't or he does get an RBI for that? I can never remember. He does. He gets an RBI. Does that count the playoffs against the Cardinals with Ryan Helsley when he got hit? I don't know that it counts the playoffs. It doesn't. Great question. All regular season stats exclude playoff stats, which always bothers me. Yeah. Yeah. I think that's seven total. There you go. Yeah. And that's, that's quite a, they talk about a season of milestones, you know, here's another one for this team. We're coming. You can't trade Boehm now. You can't trade Boehm. I mean, you got to retire his number. I'm pretty sure just like with like little like marks on it everywhere. He got hit by a pitch with the bases loaded, but yeah, fun statistic during a very not fun stretch of Liz final thoughts. I don't have anything this week other than I'm planning my Phillies games for the second half of the season since I didn't go any in the first. And it looks like my husband and I will make it to a grand total of one Phillies game this year because it is unbelievably expensive to go. Yes, it is. No doubt about it goes to just one game this year, but hopefully it'll be a good one. Well, if you're planning on, on, on home games coming up, the Phillies going to be on the road for a little while. They actually start a series against the Marlins here. Uh, the Marlins had been playing fantastic baseball. They are however, losers of 12 in a row as they come into this series against the Philadelphia Phillies. Um, just falling down the standings here in the national league East and have turned into clear sellers this week at the trade deadline. Sandy Alcantara, uh, will not be on this team by the end of the week. That, that much we can all assure you, whoever else is going to go, we don't know just yet, but interesting matchup on Monday night, Zach Wheeler against former Philly, Tyler Phillips, uh, who was a starter with the Phillies, went to the Marlins was their closer. He was the guy would smack himself in the face as he would run in from the bullpen. I don't think he's doing that. I hear that guy. I don't think he's doing that prior to every inning that he comes out to pitch as a starter. Now I'm guessing that they cautioned him against that. Um, but we'll see, uh, on Monday night, he's got a three, five, two ERA on the season. Does Tyler Phillips. Now I wonder if he's just a bulk starter here. No, he's got 79 innings under his belt this year, um, as a starter. So, all right, Tyler Phillips having us having a little bit of a season there with Miami. Um, Sandy Alcantara will get the mound for the Philly against the Phillies on Tuesday night against Aaron Nola. Um, so we'll see whether or not he's still a Marlin might be his last game in a Marlins uniform. And then, uh, they got a game on Wednesday, uh, Jesus Lizardo against TBD, uh, and that will wrap up the three game series before the Phillies head to Baltimore for a weekend series against the A's, um, in Maryland. So, um, that's what the calendar is looking like for the Phillies here on trade deadline week, as we are getting down to it, August 3rd. Remember, everybody is a week from today. That is the trade deadline, uh, for major league baseball. So things are going to start getting hot here over the next week. And we'll see what the Phillies do. Lots of rumors going to be coming, telling you, Dave Dombrowski is going to do something big. It's going to, he's aggressive at the trade deadline. It's yeah. We'll see. We'll see. That's going to do it for this edition of hidden season. Again, you can watch this round table edition of the podcast over at the WHYY YouTube channel. If you subscribe to the WHYY YouTube channel, you can see every round table episode as well as WHYY's terrific online content. They got lots of stuff there that you're going to want to check out. If you are an audio podcast listener, only we are on Apple podcasts. We are on Spotify, everywhere. You can get your podcast. That's where we are. Please tell your friends and your family members about the show. Uh, we will take you. We will hold you by the hand during this very exciting week of Phillies, uh, baseball trade deadline stuff. Uh, this is always one of the most fun times of the year, no matter what you're doing, whether you're a buyer or a seller, a lot of fun this time of year to kind of parse through the noise and then see what the Phillies actually do to try and improve a team that will go to playoffs and, uh, needs a lot of help in order to do well. Once they're there, thanks everybody for tuning in. We'll talk to you next time right here on hidden season.