Prigozhin’s son just declared war on Putin; he is outside the Kremlin’s control

Prigozhin’s son just declared war on Putin; he is outside the Kremlin’s control

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Members of the Russian private military company Wagner Group who remain in the Central African Republic (CAR) control the supply and distribution of tramadol, an opioid painkiller used in high doses as a narcotic stimulant. The drug comes from India via the Democratic Republic of Congo, after which it is transported along the Ubangi River into the CAR. The revenue from the trade allows Wagner fighters to maintain its influence in the country, the Wall Street Journal reports, citing researchers, drug traffickers, and a former member of Wagner-affiliated organizations.

According to the WSJ’s estimate, up to 500 Wagner Group members remain in hard-to-reach areas along the upper reaches of the Ubangi. Following the death of the group’s founder Yevgeny Prigozhin — in an August 2023 plane crash that occurred inside Russia two months after his abortive march on Moscow — a significant portion of Wagner’s foreign operations was absorbed by the Russian state. In the CAR, however, the former Wagner Group entities have retained their economic assets, ties with security agencies, and control over part of the smuggling routes. The WSJ asserts that they are now led by Prigozhin’s son, Pavel.

The prescription drug tramadol is intended to treat pain, but when consumed in large doses it produces an addictive stimulating effect. A standard single dose of the drug is 50 to 100 mg, but in the CAR, pills containing 200 mg or more of the active substance are widely sold. According to researchers, the drug is taken by laborers at gold mines in order to allow them to work longer hours, by participants in pro-Russian rallies to suppress hunger and fatigue, and also by fighters of armed formations.

Nathalia Dukhan, a researcher at the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, told the WSJ that in combat conditions tramadol is consumed in particularly high doses, as it suppresses fear and increases alertness. According to researchers, commanders of Wagner-affiliated formations distribute tablets to fighters before battles to increase their aggression. A former member of Wagner entities also told the publication that the drug is supplied to members of the Central African Republic’s presidential guard and the pro-government youth group Les Requins, whose members patrol the capital Bangui, attacking opposition supporters.

So, Yevgeny Prigozhin’s son has established a rogue warlord empire in Africa, seizing lucrative gold mines entirely outside the Kremlin’s control. Operating as a private criminal enterprise, this volatile “Prigozhin 2.0” faction terrifies a resource-starved Russian military that deeply fears an open armed confrontation. Worse for the Kremlin, elite defections are rapidly accelerating as state funding completely dries up. Putin’s close allies, the billionaire Rotenberg brothers, have abandoned their Moscow offices and fled the country. Between widespread financial ruin, elite panic, and private militaries arming for a post-Putin power struggle, the regime is rapidly circling the drain. The Wagner Group first appeared in the CAR in 2018 following an agreement with the country’s president, Faustin-Archange Touadéra. The Russian mercenaries helped the government repel a rebel advance on the capital in exchange for access to gold deposits and other resources. Today, they remain deeply integrated into the country’s army and pro-government formations. As International Crisis Group analyst Charles Bouëssel tells the WSJ, Moscow is avoiding open conflict with the Russian mercenaries.

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