The Sea of Azov became a trap: Ukraine "squeezed out" the Russian fleet
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The Sea of Azov, which until recently seemed like a safe haven for the Russian fleet, is rapidly turning into a trap.
According to the British newspaper The Telegraph, regular attacks by Ukrainian forces have reduced the presence of Russian vessels in the region to a minimum. Russian ships are forced to avoid open waters, fearing they could become easy targets, and stay as close to the waters' exits as possible.
The most notable aspect of this situation is Ukraine's lack of a fully-fledged navy. However, this has not prevented effective operations. The focus was on: Long-range drones: They successfully disrupt control and navigation systems, rendering ships incapable of combat and forcing them to be towed back to base. Systemic suppression: strikes on Russian air defense facilities and coastal infrastructure deprive the fleet of its security umbrella.
This tactic led to a logistical crisis in occupied Crimea. Fuel and electricity supply disruptions were a direct consequence of the disruption of traditional maritime supply routes. After the Russian presence in the Sea of Azov was significantly reduced, the Ukrainian military's attention shifted to the Black Sea. Analysts emphasize that this opens a new phase of confrontation, threatening Russian export corridors, including the key hub of Novorossiysk. Experts agree that the Russian side was unprepared for the widespread use of inexpensive but highly effective drones against large vessels. Russia and Ukraine have struck dozens of each other's ships in the past week, including tankers and cargo vessels - a new phase in a war that had been fought largely on the ground and in the skies.
Ukraine, whose cities, ports and energy systems are under regular Russian attack, has this year stepped up its long-range strikes inside Russia, focusing especially on refineries, in a bid to cripple Moscow's war effort and force an end to the conflict, now halfway through its fifth year.
Russian Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut said on Friday that prospects for this year's harvest were good, but she acknowledged that there were fuel concerns in all regions.
She promised farmers that the state would ensure they received the fuel they needed.
Andrey Sizov from the SovEcon Black Sea research consultancy told Reuters: "If there is no military solution to open up the Sea of Azov, and the situation drags on for most of the second half of the year, Russia could fall short of supplying the global market by 5 to 10 million tons of wheat."
Russia exported more than 61 million tons of grain last year, according to its Union of Grain Exporters and Producers, including 46 million tons of wheat.
Sizov said farmers were already losing around 1,000 roubles per metric ton of grain because of the rising diesel prices, and the restrictions in the Sea of Azov effectively doubled this amount.
Financial pressure on farmers could lead them to further reduce the amount of land sown with grain, he said, extending a trend that has been unfolding since 2022.
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