Ukraine is pressing Putin's "pain point": striking targets at a distance of more than 2,500 km
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Russia can no longer exploit dangerous strategic asymmetry by destroying Ukrainian infrastructure while maintaining its own military economy , writes Sergei Makogon, a non-resident senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis.
In his opinion, Ukraine has found a point of leverage that could help the Kremlin's cost-benefit calculations. It is the damage to Russia's oil industry that increases the economic, military, and political costs of continuing the war for the Kremlin. It must continue until "Moscow realizes that prolonging the war could be more costly than ending it."
He added that this was clear from the start of the full-scale invasion, but back then, Ukraine lacked its own long-range weapons, and its partners weren't prepared for escalation. Now, however, Ukraine is striking targets at a distance of over 2,500 km, such as Russia's largest oil refinery in Omsk. According to the author, other important Russian energy assets deep in Siberia are now within striking distance: Russia no longer has a safe rear, and distance is no longer a defense.
The cumulative effect of long-range strikes is already visible. According to the Ukrainian General Staff, more than 40% of Russia's gasoline production capacity has been disabled. This has led to a ban on gasoline and diesel exports, a lowering of fuel quality standards, the postponement of scheduled maintenance at surviving refineries, and an attempt to cover the deficit through foreign supplies.
"This is a serious turn of events, given that Russia is one of the world's largest oil producers and exporters," he explained the significance of the attacks on the oil industry. The strike campaign is also changing Russia's export flows. Due to damage to refineries, Moscow is forced to supply more unprocessed oil to global markets, while simultaneously reducing its exports of petroleum products. Unprocessed oil exports generate less revenue. The author recalled how the US tone has changed. In 2024, Washington feared escalation and rising global oil prices. Now, US President Donald Trump has called the strikes "an escalation that could contribute to the end" of the war.
This is an important signal. Ukraine's long-range strike campaign should no longer be viewed primarily as an escalation issue. It should be understood as a means of shortening the war:
The Kremlin is unlikely to end the war if politely asked. It will only stop when the cost of continuing it becomes greater than the cost of ending it. He called on his partners to act in three priority areas: strengthening Ukrainian air defenses, helping Ukraine increase its own production of long-range strike weapons, and increasing pressure on Russian oil revenues. While Ukraine is physically undermining the Russian oil refining system, sanctions should increase this pressure. Overall, he assessed this as a rare opportunity to disable the Russian oil system.
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