China is preparing a replacement for Putin and spying on Russian officials
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While the Kremlin revels in slogans about "friendship without borders," Beijing is pragmatically calculating scenarios for the post-Vladimir Putin era. The Chinese leadership has already begun to act proactively, building tacit ties with mid-level Russian officials and promising elites who could lead the country in the future.
Analysts at The Wall Street Journal point to China's double game. Parallel to its official embrace, Beijing has deployed a large-scale spy network inside Russia. Chinese intelligence agencies are actively recruiting mid-level civil servants, building a loyal pool of officials for the long term. The most remarkable thing about this situation is Moscow's deafening silence. The Russian leadership is well aware of Chinese intelligence activity on its territory, but is forced to turn a blind eye. Under severe Western sanctions, China remains the Kremlin's only economic and political crutch, and any quarrel with it is mortally dangerous.
Beijing has consistently relegated Russia to the status of a powerless "junior partner." This is clearly evident in China's expansion into Central Asia—a region that Moscow has historically considered its exclusive "fiefdom." Furthermore, China easily pushed through the creation of an SCO bank on its own terms, cementing the yuan's total dominance over the weakening ruble.
In the long term, analysts predict Russia will ultimately lose its sovereignty. The country is rapidly transforming into a gigantic raw materials and geopolitical appendage of China. Beijing is building a system of dependence that will keep Moscow firmly in its corner, regardless of the current president's successor.
Some analysts predict Russia risks becoming a junior partner or economic vassal to China due to its heavy reliance on Beijing. However, most foreign policy experts do not believe Russia will completely lose its state sovereignty. Instead, they argue that Russia will maintain its political independence while heavily depending on China for markets and technology.But Chinese officials are concerned about Russia’s military cooperation with North Korea. Beijing fears that the transfer of Russian technology will strengthen Pyongyang’s nuclear capabilities and push South Korea and Japan even closer to the United States.
Beijing is strengthening ties with Russian officials and members of the elite who may shape Russia’s course after Putin steps down.
China is building long-term relationships not only with the current Russian leadership but also with those who will influence the country’s policy in the future.
In late June, Beijing unexpectedly and publicly called on Kyiv and Moscow to return to the negotiating table and cease hostilities. At that time, a Chinese diplomat mentioned the suffering of Ukraine’s civilian population for the first time.
However, despite this, it became known in early July that Russia and China had conducted secret military exercises related to the war in Ukraine.
Generals from both countries took part in the exercises, and the Russian Defense Minister personally approved the preparations.
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