Terrible adventures of Russian army in eastern Ukraine: Russians are dying, or going missing here
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As the Russians shove more and more regiments and brigades into the narrow salient northeast of the fortress city of Pokrovsk, their casualties are increasing.
Different sources disagree over exactly how much Russian casualties are increasing. They don't disagree that more Russians are dying, getting maimed, or going missing, many of them in and around the chaotic, 40-square-kilometer salient, Euromaidan Press media outlet recalls.
A leaked Russian document provides a baseline for Russian losses between 1 January and 1 September this year. According to the document, Russian forces suffered 281,550 casualties in those 245 days: 86,744 killed in action, 33,996 missing in action, 158,529 wounded in action, 2,311 captured. That's 35,000 casualties a month through the early weeks of Russia's renewed push toward Pokrovsk. Of those 35,000 casualties, several thousand were probably temporary as the more lightly wounded recuperated and returned to service.
Given that Russia recruited nearly 32,000 fresh troops a month over the same eight months, there's a good chance the Kremlin enjoyed a small troop surplus throughout much of 2025.
But Russian commanders' determination to capture Pokrovsk, one of the last urban strongpoints between the Russians and the free twin cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, has erased that surplus, Euromaidan Press says. Now the Russians are almost certainly losing more troops than they're recruiting every month. It's unclear how deep the deficit is, however. Another leaked document, detailing Russian casualties for 4 September, lists 995 total casualties, around half of them from the Center Grouping of Forces fighting around Pokrovsk. Incredibly, this is a slightly higher count than the official Ukrainian count of Russian losses for the same day. The Ukrainian general staff, which could be forgiven for projecting rosier figures, tallied just 810 Russian casualties on 4 September. The casualty rate among Russian field armies has probably increased since then. "On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian troops activated attacks across the entire direction, suffering 18-to-20% greater losses over the last week," the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies reported. If Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies is correct, the Russians are losing around 1,200 troops a day. If the typical ratios of killed to wounded to missing hold, 1,200 total casualties could mean 400 confirmed KIA a day. Analysts widely assume most missing Russian soldiers are also dead somewhere along the 1,100-km front line. But at least one analyst has good reason to believe Russian losses are currently much greater. Analyst Andrew Perpetua visually confirmed 825 Russian KIA in five days starting on 9 October. That's 165 dead Russians every day, on average, Euromaidan Press says. But Perpetua stressed that his count is probably low, as there are surely many Russian combat deaths that don't leave behind photographic or video evidence. Perpetua himself estimated he observes between 15% and 30% of Russian losses.
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