The US dealt Iran a powerful blow: the consequences were felt even in the IRGC
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US economic pressure on Iran is beginning to seriously impact the regime's financial capacity, including funding the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Tehran-backed terrorist organizations. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that further restrictions on oil exports could shrink the Iranian economy by 25% within a year. One of Tehran's main problems has been a shortage of foreign currency, primarily dollars, which are needed for international settlements and military financing. Restricting access to foreign markets simultaneously increases pressure on the national currency and complicates financial transactions. The situation has also affected the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which plays a key role in the regime's security and regional policy. According to incoming reports, IRGC units are facing salary arrears, and fears of a further deterioration in the economic situation are growing among senior officials.
The American economic isolation campaign began approximately eight weeks before the published statements. Its primary objective is to restrict the sources of revenue that the Iranian government uses to fund military programs and the activities of allied armed organizations.
The oil sector is particularly important, remaining one of the most important sources of foreign exchange earnings. Export restrictions make it difficult to sell Iranian oil on international markets, despite the country's abundant reserves.
The loss of oil revenues is accompanied by a further weakening of the rial and growing problems accessing dollars. Financial difficulties complicate the purchase of equipment, payment for services, and the maintenance of government and military structures.
The scale of the currency crisis is also reflected in the plans of Iran's monetary authorities. Against the backdrop of the depreciation of the national currency, the possibility of issuing banknotes in millions of rials is being considered, indicating a significant shift in the purchasing power of currency.
The US administration's internal estimates suggest Iran's economy could shrink by a quarter over the annual period from March to March. This scenario implies a significant decline in economic activity, potentially impacting employment, household incomes, and the state budget.
Financial restrictions also affect foreign entities that have received Tehran's support for years, including Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen.
A shortage of dollars and restrictions on international transfers are complicating the transfer of funds to these organizations. Payments to militants, weapons purchases, infrastructure maintenance, and funding for ongoing operations are at risk.
However, it's premature to talk about a complete cessation of financial support. According to separate reports from Lebanon, Hezbollah has received tens of millions of dollars in additional funding from Iran to prepare for a possible resumption of hostilities against Israel.
These data indicate that some financial channels continue to operate despite US restrictions. The true extent of the reduction in funding for armed groups remains unknown.
Additional pressure on the Iranian leadership is creating concerns within the security forces. According to American assessments, some IRGC officials are concerned not only about the economic situation but also about their own security, which could make it difficult for the leadership to obtain reliable information about the situation in the country. However, according to US data, Iran's attempts to disrupt regional oil shipments did not result in a lasting reduction in exports from the Persian Gulf states. By the end of September, oil supplies from the region had reached approximately 17-18 million barrels per day, recovering from the initial disruptions.
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