Miami vs. Florida State Betting Picks and Predictions

So what are we doing here with this one? I would like to let you go first, Dave, and how you see a number that is moving towards FSU, I think 19.5 now showing up here in the market, how you see this game playing out. Yeah, I lived this as a kid down in Miami, Miami, Florida State, every single year. This was life back then. Obviously, it's different now in a different era. I firmly believe this could get ugly in Miami. I know the weather is going to be dicey, But Canes off and by, they always circle this game. You might say, oh, it's Florida State. It's not, you know, it's not Notre Dame. Well, it means something. It does. It always does. These kids compete in high school, then they go to Miami or Florida State or Florida. It always matters. And when one team is significantly better than the other, it becomes a blowout. That's what we have seen in the history of this series. Yeah, you've played the wide right, left and right games when they're both top five teams. But when they're not both top five teams and one is better than the other, it gets ugly. Sure. The Seminoles hung around last year, only lost by six. But keep in mind, Kevin, that was a 3-1 Florida State team that was ranked 18th. They'd just come off an Alabama upset. Then their wheels had fallen off Florida State. Since that Miami game, they're only 5-8 and a shell of that team. The FSU team is bad in many, many ways. We've talked about it in the show. I feel like I've done something with my life if I've convinced you not to take the points here. Let me tell you why you shouldn't take the points. Their defense is 122nd in the country. for those counting at home there's only 130 teams there are 122nd in defense this is Florida State we're talking about 410 yards allowed per game they are 114th against the pass 244 a game 102nd against the run they allowed 50 to Alabama, they allowed 44 to Louisville now they by the way face the best offense in football, the Canes average 49 and a half points per game, 555 yards per game, second in the country, first in points granted, playing FAMU and they're playing you know Stanford, I get it, Florida State not much better than those teams, their defense is arguably worse. How I'm playing it, since I don't like laying 21 points in any way shape or form in any game, I'm taking the Miami team total over 37 and a half because Miami could probably print whatever number they want and score against this horrific defense, I'm also taking Darian Mensah over 269 and a half passing yards, I mentioned the pass defense horrific, 114th in the country Mensah's gonna throw the ball as many times as he wants and complete it as many times as he wants and I have him getting 270 or more as well as the Miami team total over because Florida State can't stop anybody so this is, this is an interesting one, I was certain a week or so ago I'd end up on FSU here, then we go back to last Friday, Florida State is dominating Louisville dominating and I'm like oh no, the FSU number is going to be so short against Miami, I'm not going to be able to bet them. And they then proceeded to lose 44-20, 44-20 So I tell myself, man, I'm going to have to get just like the most point like 24 points with Florida State. And the number was 21. I said, no, no, no, no, no, I'm not doing it. Florida State's going to get destroyed. Miami will cover this easily. And then I said, we can still look into the game. And I'm like, wow, you can probably make a case that the number's just like a bounce too high. And then, you know, you look around and there's some smart folks. We're like, yeah, I kind of show a little bit of value on FSU here, but I'm good. I'm good. I'm not doing this. And I want this to be very clear. I am not betting this game. I am not doing it. I am not betting this. but i am telling you it has all of the makings of the how did mario let this happen loss i am i am not betting it you do not have to give me any credit you do not have to give me an ounce an ounce of credit i am just telling you that there's usually like a couple of people who are like watch out for mario that right or ah this is a little high and this is the people who trust their numbers to the death, Dave. Like, this is too high. And they're like, nope, not doing it. And it just feels like Norvell is going to have a lead he doesn't deserve in the third quarter. And maybe he'll mess it up. But there's just some, there's something in the air, Dave. If this was SMU, maybe, but not Florida State. I'm going to go out and say it's 47-17. That's where I'm going with this. 30-point rout. Could happen. It could happen.