Initial attack by NATO on Russia: missile strike on St. Petersburg and major counteroffensive
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NATO presented a plan to respond to a Russian attack with strikes on St. Petersburg, the Kaliningrad region, and Belarus. The Wall Street Journal reports that NATO's concept detailed the first targets for NATO missiles. The Alliance's approach to defense was presented by NATO Supreme Allied Commander Alexus Grynkevich at the Warsaw Security Forum.
In the first phase, advancing Russian forces must deter drones and ground robots. This is intended to create a broad zone of deployment to halt the enemy's advance and reduce NATO losses. At the same time, long-range missiles will strike troop command and air defense facilities. This is intended to weaken Russia's ability to control airspace and allow Alliance ground forces to launch a counteroffensive. Air forces must attack reinforcements before they arrive on the battlefield and strike other military targets in the rear. The goal is to deprive the advancing units of supplies and command, halting the invasion at an early stage. To coordinate, the allies are developing a secure system for the rapid exchange of targeting data. It is intended to link units across borders and reduce the time between target detection and attack. According to the Wall Street Journal, certain elements of the system have already been tested during the American campaign against Iran. The concept is called the "Eastern Flank Deterrence Initiative." The US military explains its purpose as follows: Putin, assessing NATO's readiness, should forego the decision to attack. At the same time, planning is aimed at repelling an invasion while minimizing the risk of further escalation, including nuclear escalation. Elements of this approach are being practiced in exercises. At the time of Grinkevich's speech, more than 20,000 troops were participating in the ten-day "Unwavering Duel" maneuvers, simulating the repulse of a major offensive from the East.
Meanwhile, Danish intelligence warned that Russia could launch a limited military strike against the North Atlantic Alliance in the coming months. Copenhagen believes Moscow may attempt to introduce a limited, unmarked contingent into Alliance territory. Another scenario considered possible is Russian strikes with long-range weapons against critical Alliance infrastructure or other destructive, false-flag sabotage using Ukrainian UAVs. Intelligence assesses the risk of such a scenario as "low but growing." At a press conference, Arenkil noted that Moscow could attempt an operation similar to the occupation of Donbass in 2014. "This could be the transfer of military forces to a limited area within NATO countries, for example, under the pretext of protecting local Russian minorities... The goal is not to seize the country, but to split NATO," the head of Danish intelligence said. According to the Danes, Moscow is preparing an operation that "will have more serious consequences for target countries than in the past . " He noted that Russia is already actively waging hybrid aggression against Europe and that this will likely continue and intensify. The Danes expect "cyberattacks that paralyze the operation of publicly important systems, as well as acts of sabotage associated with a high risk of human casualties." Arenkiel emphasized that Moscow may attempt to attack NATO in parallel with the war against Ukraine. As for a full-scale Russian invasion of the Alliance, the likelihood of such a move is assessed as "extremely low." Russia currently lacks the resources to do so. Danish intelligence estimates that Russia would need approximately two years to prepare for a new regional war, and five years for a full-scale war in Europe.
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