فشار اقتصادی یا حمله دوباره؛ آیا تهران از غنیسازی عقب مینشیند؟ | گفتوگو با آقای آریا کنگرلو

Epoch Times Persian
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28 Video Views·Aug 29, 2026
آقای آریا (الهیار) کنگرلو، استاد دانشگاه و تحلیلگر سیاسی، در گفتوگو با شهرزاد قانعی در برنامه «نگاه سوم»، به بررسی میزان اثربخشی فشارهای تازه وزارت خزانهداری آمریکا بر جمهوری اسلامی میپردازد و درباره احتمال ازسرگیری حملات نظامی و همچنین امکان عقبنشینی جمهوری اسلامی از برنامه غنیسازی اورانیوم توضیح میدهد.
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Video Summary
AI GeneratedThis discussion with political analyst Arya Kangarlo examines the failure of the Islamic Republic's nuclear strategy and the shift toward a U.S.-led \"hybrid war.\" The analysis focuses on how comprehensive economic blockades, advanced military surveillance, and the collapse of oil revenues are creating existential pressures on the regime and its ruling elite.
Welcome back to another conversation, from the perspective of travel and the taste of Persian pomegranates.
I am Sharasad Qan'ei, and today's guest is Mr. Arya Kangarlu.
Physicist, university professor, and political analyst.
Mr. Kangarloo, welcome.
Thank you so much, Ms. Qanei, for both of you, and I'm truly delighted to be with you and your audience.
General Kengrulod, one of the issues that has been raised is that the Deputy Surgeon said
If we had known that the martyr would become Ruhollah Khomeini, Qadi Qanuni would not have done it.
At the same time, it stated that the Islamic Republic bears a large number of obligations to pay.
A large number of officials, a large number of officials who were killed
In this regard, the risk of striking infrastructure
He said that if we were to spend all this money, we wouldn't have been so stingy.
This can serve as an example of the elitism exhibited by some individuals in the Islamic Republic.
Did you know about the Qanizazi? Will this title become a product transformation?
Perhaps the president and his deputy's statements cannot be taken that seriously either.
Yes, we must examine what the goal of the Islamic Republic in the Qanizadeh case was.
What obstacles did you encounter in carrying out the qanizazi?
If we could find an answer from the standpoint of the Islamic Republic regarding these two questions
We can answer your question at that time.
The reason why the Islamic Republic sought nuclear weapons is, in itself, dual.
One wanted to protect the remnants, because the Islamic Republic had become entrenched.
Countries that possess nuclear weapons are not subject to foreign aggression.
Keep this in mind so we can come back to it and show how wrong it was.
And the second one is because of the use of nuclear weapons
She could have been in the Middle Sister region.
impose his own thoughts and that narrative of Islam which he himself holds
Don't rely on others.
Look, right now, without nuclear weapons, it's trying
Do the same thing with nuclear-armed missiles.
Use conventional missiles.
And the second question was what obstacles lay in the way.
Was there an Islamic Republic core?
There were two meanings in general: one America, one Israel.
Now we can address all these issues.
Let's see if any changes have been made to these.
Those two meanings, America and Israel
No longer opposed to what the Islamic Republic wants
Isn't he the one with the nuclear weapon?
or conversely, the United States and Israel have shown that
Their opposition was much greater than what the Islamic Republic had expected.
During the Twelve-Day War via Israel
It has been demonstrated that the U.S. and Israel are determined in their resolve to prevent
The possession of nuclear weapons by the Islamic Republic is extremely new.
Therefore, regarding the second question, the Islamic Republic
Receive a decisive response from America and Israel.
Regarding the first one, the first question as well
What do they want nuclear weapons for?
The sun rose, the reason for the sun.
What we saw was that the Islamic Republic of Iran had a nuclear weapons program, but
America collapsed due to its own economic policies.
Therefore, nuclear weapons, even for the strongest country possessing the largest number of nuclear warheads,
The assumption that a regime possessing nuclear weapons would not be overthrown
Exactly, the one who came to talk about Russia, the poet.
In another instance as well, right now, as we are speaking
Within the past five-year period
Collective wine-making method, sorry, Russia
who owns approximately sixty thousand nuclear warheads
Attacked by a non-nuclear regime
And the target of attack was not just war and clashes at the border.
Rather, an offensive operation deep into Russian territory
Ukraine is located near long-range weapons and missiles.
Even those strategic bombers that are carrying them
Only the Bombardier aircraft that have the capability to carry nuclear weapons were provided to Ukraine.
And this is the deterrence of Russian nuclear weapons
There was no deterrence against Ukraine's attack on Russia.
I think that if you just put these facts side by side
Anyone who doesn't even have sound judgment, like the leaders of the Islamic Republic
They will come to this conclusion: why we are focusing on something that is ineffective.
It's not suppressive.
The goal that we want to achieve cannot help us.
Honestly, if we had a little more of that kind of thing, they'd say, "Oh, if only I had it."
You became my enemy, and I became your killer.
For the Islamic Republic, nuclear weapons have been deemed permissible.
not only failed to deter the Islamic Republic
Rather, it not only has the capability to launch it
As they themselves put it, they did not hand over the strategy to Marsa.
Rather, they now intend to possess nuclear weapons.
They have faced them with the danger of existential threat as well.
Perhaps some people in the heart of the Islamic Republic
They arrived at this analysis I gave you in five minutes.
Thank you, and you have mentioned poetry quite a lot.
And the economic pressure of America on Shirou
Many analyses state that the economic pressure currently being exerted by the United States against the Islamic Republic
It probably doesn't differ much from the economic pressures previously mentioned.
And perhaps, just perhaps, it's only because of a slight easing of the situation that he made this choice, which mentions economic pressure.
What do you think your diagnosis is, Mr. Kongarde?
From these new economic pressures by the United States against the Islamic Republic
I understand that the U.S. has launched a combined war with the intent of completely undermining the Islamic Republic's economy.
That, in my opinion, is a new strategic architecture.
In this new strategy, remember that during the Soviet era, America imposed economic sanctions on Russia.
No, he had not conducted a maritime survey.
It hadn't launched a military attack on Russia, yet it struck 3,000 military targets in Russia.
He has done all these things with the Islamic Republic, which he had not done with Russia.
Military operation, air strike
Add dozens of thousands of military objectives across the country
Eliminating leaders of the regime, political leaders, military leaders, and scientific leaders
Finally, economic sanctions, maritime blockade, and economic blockade
America has never done these things with Russia.
The U.S. managed to weaken Russia only through economic sanctions and continues to do so.
Of course, it's true that it took about seventy years for this economic sanction to take effect.
However, the economic sanctions imposed by the United States on the Islamic Republic are extremely extensive.
and an informal network of transportation hubs and oil trading centers of the Islamic Republic
Transportation hubs of the Year of the Ox
Neither the Islamic Republic itself, nor, for example, the elements of the Islamic Republic
Rather, foreign countries that sell oil through those shadow tankers
The Islamic Republic has targeted oil smuggling.
In my opinion, these sanctions announced by Scott Bessin on Tuesday last week
These sanctions are extremely serious.
Scarlett Bennett announced the five finalists.
targeting the Islamic Republic in this context
And these five vital points
One of them is related to forward-looking technologies that involve restricting access to global forward-looking networks and components and services.
To suffocate government supplies
The Islamic Republic can no longer send its agents to any country in the world.
The second layer is in the gold layer.
meaning large-scale gold traders
Refineries and channels possessing tangible assets, which we refer to as hard assets
that could replace the Islamic Republic's current use
To preserve value and settle cross-border transactions outside traditional banking systems
The field of Thobmash was in technology and innovation.
that Scarth Farsand announced
Blocking illegal hardware purchases
Government security software and required components
Missile programs and cyber operations
The fifth field also had digital tools.
limiting digital asset exchanges and platforms with digital assets
which they used to circumvent the transparency of the Islamic Republic's traditional banking system
These five issues are, in my opinion, extremely serious.
Places the Islamic Republic in a precarious situation.
It's very different from those things.
Before the Twenty-Second War, that is, during
It has been 47 years since the United States imposed sanctions against the Islamic Republic.
And now the Islamic Republic is seeing that
He sees its effects much more clearly than we do.
On the fact that they have their hands close to you
and soon you will see the useful and distinctive results
This new diplomacy, this diplomacy
The United States is still waging a struggle against the Islamic Republic on three fronts.
One in military uniform, one in diplomatic attire
and another one regarding the economic crisis and sanctions as well.
With their own words
Economic loss
America has never done this to any country before.
Any one of them alone can destroy a government.
In a different timetable
They can overthrow a government together.
All the governments that America would apply this star to
They can be overthrown in a very short time.
Thank you for your use
Kangrulu side
Now, this economic pressure is something that the U.S. claims it is imposing on the Islamic Republic.
There is no indication of missile attacks in the near future.
This is the policy that the Trapp government has embarked upon.
against the Islamic Republic
But is it possible after the midterm elections?
How likely is it that they will restart the campaigns?
It depends on the actions of the Islamic Republic.
If America regarding...
You must have heard the U.S. President saying that we have always
What eyes do we have in the sky?
We have eyes in the sky
They mean the ones who are looking down from the sky.
And he said this week that our mohbarahs
Because he spoke about this
They removed the Halmos Strait.
The U.S. Navy evacuated all of our mines from there.
To break their hearts
and the Hormuz Strait at that section which is its central part
neither Iran's coastal region nor Aman's coastal region
Rather, its central part is where the majority of commercial activities are located.
Ship arrivals and departures were carried out from there.
He announced it publicly.
And he said that from now on, we will be looking from the sky.
Even the smallest boats that they launch there, we quickly eliminate them.
Therefore, this is about America's firm determination.
Let it not be allowed for the Islamic Republic
Which of these sanctions did America impose on the Islamic Republic?
Weaken it under pressure.
It means neither does it remove the pressure from the regime, nor does it remove the pressure from the American regime.
Regarding that 20-day war and the 12-day war, a series of objectives they intended to achieve
Reaching those goals
The Islamic Republic has now reached that 440 kilograms mark itself.
Uranium has no known stable isotopes, or if it does, it cannot undergo spontaneous fission.
America is watching them closely so it can take them wherever it wants.
America, Mr. Trump said that
Who were the people inside the facilities we struck with B-52 bombers and GBU-57s?
If anyone tries to get close to those facilities
What capability do we have that can even identify the card?
Speaks on military uniforms
Can we read this using our satellite?
We're getting so close to that area.
Therefore, America shifted from a military approach to those objectives which were of primary importance to it.
Take the Islamic Republic's judiciary to build a bastion of tyranny.
Reached that goal.
so that the Islamic Republic even deprives itself of its conventional capabilities
He has deprived him and left him destitute for this reason.
They struck the missile shelters.
They hit the missile launchers.
And they are missile manufacturing factories.
Factories where missiles were built
And factories producing the necessary spare parts for missiles
They also hit Iran.
Therefore, there were now two options facing America.
Or to simplify the Islamic Republic
Completing the work of the Islamic Republic
Or a ground attack
That very thing which you did on Monday, when you closed the silence.
And America has used this.
And now, within a week that I've been here at work
We are hearing murmurs from Tehran.
It seems like they're experiencing some strange pressure from this feeling.
Just as the Iranian rial keeps declining against the dollar
We are seeing that the rate of depreciation of the rial against the dollar has increased further.
This will cause widespread dissatisfaction.
Of course, the Islamic Republic has caused the rial's value to plummet against the dollar.
Left at the age of 47, gradually
The agreement that gradually came to be for humans, people can stand against it
Create a spiritual capability and gradually draw him in.
And adjust themselves within the whirlwind of events that unfold
But sudden events are happening.
That means the depreciation of the rial against the dollar
As we are currently experiencing this slope, we can see it's happening.
It can be extremely difficult.
In popular uprisings and in instilling fear among themselves, the leaders of the Islamic Republic
And this quotation of your statements all indicates that yes.
This guard is one of the prominent figures in the Islamic Republic.
It's really going down.
Next to the chaos and many of the words spoken by the people of Iran now, both inside and outside the country.
This is what it means: this war will be a long one.
Something similar to the Russia-Ukraine war
And perhaps that initial perception, whether it's been several months of war or just a few weeks.
This idea of the war ending no longer exists.
They are preparing their people for this war over the long term.
How long do you think this war will last?
Should I have to think for years that these years are taking so long?
Or could it really be that eternal life might come to an end within a few months?
This war cannot be compared to the war between Ukraine and Russia under any circumstances.
So that you can see how the war between Ukraine and Russia has unfolded
Russia failed to hit that target, whereas the U.S. struck the Islamic Republic within 40 days.
And in response, Ukraine managed to expel Russian ground forces from within Ukraine.
The thing that did not happen to America in Afghanistan nor in Iraq
The place where the U.S. Air Force is so ineffective that it so thoroughly prepares the ground
that American soldiers were actually the ones entering those countries
Being like Afghanistan and Iraq, facing no serious resistance
America is acting very differently toward the Islamic Republic compared to how it is dealing with Russia and Ukraine.
First, he did the same thing he had done during the war, the conventional military campaign of the Tawwan regime.
The Islamic Republic has eliminated the potential for nuclear weapons and is now focused on peaceful purposes.
He imposed an economic sanction on him. Russia has no capability to impose economic sanctions on Ukraine.
that Ukraine's reason for its actions and the reason for continuing the war is precisely this
Europe and America are strongly supplying and supporting Ukraine.
They provide financial support, security support, and intelligence support.
None of these exist regarding Iran. Of course, Russia and China do.
They provide a series of supports to the Islamic Republic, such as the air defense system.
They gave the air defense system to China, but we saw that within 24 hours, Israel and the U.S. had it.
Destroying the air defense system using their own advanced technology. Russia to
The Islamic Republic has issued 25 speeches, several of which were not worth attention and lacked potential.
It had no impact on the war. One of those statements was made during the attack on Qatar.
It was shot down by Qatar's air defense, and now we don't know the fate of its seven crew members.
Whether it's disappearance or being captured by Qatar, there are such vast differences in this
There is a resource. The Islamic Republic has never been under the control of anyone, let alone Russia.
Place Ukraine under that blockade. The maritime blockade by the Islamic Republic is a capability.
The Islamic Republic's oil brochure has arrived. The Islamic Republic's claim regarding the closure of the strait.
Hermos has also claimed ownership of a container from the moon, which America placed in the year 750 million.
The oil tanker passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Therefore, while oil from all countries is seven hundred
Fifty million barrels of oil from the countries in the region pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
It does. The Islamic Republic has closed off the narrow path of Harmoz for itself through its actions.
Within one month, seven hundred and fifty million barrels of oil from Qatar, the UAE, and Bahrain
Iraq and Arabia have left the region of the Strait of Hormuz, but the Islamic Republic remains.
Not even an oil tanker managed to exit through the Strait of Hormuz, and since the oil and
Petroleum-related derivatives are the sole avenue for revenue in the Islamic Republic of Iran.
It's an external offer, in fact, aimed at those who cannot sell oil or its derivatives.
Denies selling at the prices set by this government's decree, meaning the official exchange rate.
The government raises gasoline prices through pressures it imposes on the people.
The country's taxes and the complete shutdown of services, such as the act of cutting off the internet, which is referred to as "closing"
And after filtering the price traps, they themselves sell them to the public through this method.
They receive money, but generally speaking, a government cannot function with such a meager budget.
He should not overlook his own affairs; the Islamic Republic urgently needs a hundred and five billion.
Billion dollars a year to meet the needs of these officers serving as commanders
Fulfill the expectations of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps at a time when the government imposes economic pressures on the people.
It overflowed over people's necks and backs, and the Sepah commanders could have been in their own palaces.
Sit down and continue with their lives, indifferent and insensitive to the people's sorrow and hardships
But with these active sanctions and economic pressures, the pressure is now mounting on the walls of the leaders' palaces.
The Islamic Republic has entered, and I don't think the leaders of the Islamic Republic will be able to withstand this pressure.
Endure for a long time.
Thank you very much for your support and for being a guest on the "Paktenz Persian Three O'Clock" program.
May each passing day bring you joy.
