آقای شایان سمیعی، کارشناس امنیت ملی درباره پیامدهای تهدید به قتل ترامپ در مراسم علی خامنهای توضیح میدهد. او همچنین پیرامون نشست ناتو در آنکارا، دیدار احتمالی ترامپ و اردوغان، احتمال فروش جنگندههای F-35 آمریکا به ترکیه و پیامدهای آن بر اسرائیل و از سرگیری جنگ دوباره با جمهوری اسلامی توضیحاتی ارائه میکند.
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National security expert Shayan Sami discusses the Islamic Republic's lack of legitimacy, the staged nature of anti-Trump protests in Iran, and the complex geopolitical dynamics involving Donald Trump, Turkey, Israel, and NATO regarding the Strait of Hormuz and Ukraine.
Mr. Shayan Siami, National Security Expert, from Washington D.C., welcome to Efaq-e Tanmīz Fārsī.
Then, Khazar M Banu, I am honored to serve you and the beloved people of Iran, and thank you for your invitation.
Since two days ago, there has been a significant increase in requests to kill Trump regarding the mourning ceremonies for Ali Khamenei.
We had a video room where, symbolically, a doll representing Donald Trump was hung, and we see banners stating that Trump must be killed.
If you think this is happening organically, are these people genuinely loyal to Khamenei, seeking to extend this loyalty to other banners, or is it rather a strategic move by the Islamic Republic's principles, conveying a message to Western countries, particularly the United States?
You see, we know that the Islamic Republic, as a government among the people of Iran, lacks legitimacy.
They are about 4-5 percent who, as beneficiaries of that regime, carry out such behavior, and this is the type of conduct they exhibit.
They are doing so because they received an order, and they are following the instructions accordingly.
Yet the message behind this is in fact showing us that the Islamic Republic regime still holds onto its previous mindset.
In reality, it says one thing on stage, and something entirely different behind the scenes.
Now he wants to demonstrate his own logical power using the power of ridicule and mockery, and then come forward saying that not only have we not lacked anything, but we are now even demanding that the President of the United States be planted.
But they fail to understand that actions like this, especially when such reports are broadcast by global networks—particularly CNN, which was present in Tehran and covered the event—directly reach the highest levels of U.S. security officials.
Moreover, the intelligence, security, and special police agencies of the United States, which are responsible for protecting the life of the American president, also become involved in the matter—and it is precisely at this point that the situation worsens for the Islamic Republic.
Thus, we see that currently the Islamic Republic government seeks to preserve the legitimacy and authority of its power through a presumed authority.
But he also knows that among the people of Iran, he lacks legitimacy against global powers, holds no power against those powers, and possesses no credibility whatsoever in his own claims.
This is what the Middle Eastern media headlines are saying: Iranians have shown America, and specifically Donald Trump, just how much they stand up for the Islamic Republic.
Especially today's headline from Associated Press was the same as Reuters' report. Very major media outlets around the world covered it in roughly this manner: who had come and how many people supported the Islamic Republic.
Does this new media coverage from the Iranian media bring the people of Iran just a few steps—or perhaps just a few rungs—closer?
It is possible, but we must also understand that mainstream media in the United States have historically favored left-wing movements.
And that is precisely why a right-wing government such as Mr. Trump's government exists—indeed, Mr. Trump's government is particularly far beyond those others.
In fact, with the support of the MAGA movement—namely, America—we have elevated America to greatness, yet these people have a certain incompatibility with the American government.
These reports we see go beyond what would merely complicate the situation for the people of Iran.
In reality, it is opposing the U.S. government, which wants, in effect, to impose pressure on the government of Mr. Trump.
It's the same direction, right here, where work for Iranians abroad gets better.
That is where Iranians abroad must contact the parliamentary representatives of whichever country they reside in.
And even with the people's government and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, they can convey this message: what the journalists from the mainstream networks are actually reporting.
These are selected individuals; the government of the Islamic Republic has chosen and positioned them in front of the cameras.
If it were real, they would have allowed all journalists free access to walk the streets of Tehran and other cities.
And see there which reports will become fat.
That is precisely why support for the people of Iran must now be solidified as much as possible.
And let us also point out that mainstream media in both America and Europe have not hesitated to support the American government or the Israeli government.
They are more focused on their own interests when interacting with the Islamic Republic.
Please also briefly explain the NATO summit in Ankara.
That Donald Trump wants to have a meeting and a dialogue with Erdoğan
Can such a withdrawal be arranged that it might pose a challenge to Israel?
Given that in recent weeks, there have been numerous reports of disagreements between Netanyahu and Trump
Two countries moving in the same direction, that's evident.
But different goals seem to be perceived regarding Iran and the Islamic Republic.
Is this a challenge for Netanyahu that Donald Trump is moving closer to Turkey?
I doubt it.
So that you can see, I think right now Mr. Trump wants to do a little bit more.
Let him demonstrate his power more on the global stage.
And the same John who had said just a few days ago that everyone must know who the boss is here.
In fact, he wants to place himself more firmly and appropriately.
I think this temperament comes from that age.
Mr. Trump wants to be able to do a bit more as well.
With Mr. Erdogan's strong support, he is being held in order to assist.
No, in the context of warfare or confrontation.
Because Ardavan had traveled to Pakistan a few days ago
It also launched attacks against Israel there.
Mr. Netanyahu also responded to their statement.
In fact, I think Trump is obsessed with this.
However well it may manage the situation between Turkey and Israel right now
So that Turkey can establish itself in the region as the principal leader
On the other hand, Qatar wants to do this.
On the other hand, Saudi Arabia wants to do this.
Thus, we see that each country in the region acts according to its own national interests.
They want to show their own preference.
But I'm here for this conversation between Trump and Ardavan.
primarily intended for protecting against structural collapse
And for Trump, who in reality should tell Mr. Erdoğan, "I've got your air too."
Even we saw today, when Mr. Trump arrived in Ankara
What had never happened before in the past, Ardavan himself went down to the airplane steps and greeted him.
In fact, Ardavan wants to magnify Trump's role
And Trump, on the other hand, wants to grant a series of advantages to Erdogan, contrary to another expectation.
One of the advantages that, surprisingly, is also in line with Israel's interests and perspective.
There is a possibility of the sale of the F-35 fighter aircraft and five American aircraft to Turkey.
That would also be one of the issues or discussions between Israel and the United States.
Since Israel has no interest in this longevity
Regarding NATO, if you could please provide a bit more detail about what you're interested in?
What will be the reaction of the West to these statements about the Islamic Republic and Iran?
Given the attacks carried out last night
Will new talks take place between NATO members and the United States?
I believe that NATO members, as long as they cannot provide a certain set of guarantees,
Get the land from Mr. Trap regarding the issue of Ukraine and Russia.
It will show no sign of cooperation with Tahrir in confronting the Islamic Republic.
Because right now all these countries are actually seeking political kindergartens.
Because they reached the conclusion that the issue of confronting the Islamic Republic must be resolved politically
They do not believe that the only way for the Islamic Republic to disappear is through one path.
They are also military personnel.
That is precisely why NATO member countries are now wanting to distance themselves from the United States.
They can take one of the available points.
So that they can establish at least a minimum level of coordination in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf, and confront the Islamic Republic.
What can NATO countries do for the United States?
Just having a harmonious relationship within the context of a narrow strait like the Strait of Hormuz
Enforce the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
What do they want in this regard?
They claim they have the right to decide, something that is twice as important for America.
They must have long-term, free-of-charge access to that area.
that the Islamic Republic does not accept it
Decision-making is now difficult for NATO member countries.
whether ending the war in Ukraine matters more to them
so that they can also bring America together with themselves
Or is your imagination playing into their hands in the Strait of Hormuz?
And let America deal with its own problems.
For America, Mr. Sami, which one is more important now?
Should Ukraine be given more attention?
And Russia, and now Iran, which has reached an agreement with them
Given that he himself had previously said something more than once about it
Now, film it after all these developments.
Which one of these two matters more to him?
First, I must make a statement.
Ah, Trump himself knows it, and I know it too—this issue of the Islamic Republic remains unresolved.
A slight delay has occurred regarding the dream on the hard head of the Islamic Republic.
But regarding which one is better for America
America also wants to use both of these issues as excuses to exert pressure.
He wants to tell the Europeans that if you wish, I will coordinate regarding Ukraine.
You must cooperate with me regarding the Islamic Republic and the Strait of Hormuz.
The main problem that exists is that Europeans cannot accurately gauge Mr. Trump's discourse.
Because over the past few months, Mr. Trump has shown that he revises his position every few days.
Now there are some adherents who believe these are the way forward and strategic.
There are people who believe that not even Mr. Trump himself is clear about what he wants to do, and he doesn't know what actions he intends to take.
That is precisely why I think decision-making in the United States will not be difficult.
Hard decisions after Mr. Trump's return from Turkey to the United States
And as a result of his meeting with Mr. Netanyahu, during which security information and issues will be discussed
which will be submitted to the head of the American junta; in fact, it could greatly influence decision-making.
Do you think the Islamic Republic's principled stance on the Strait of Hormuz is being undermined by the ongoing attacks directed at the Strait of Hormuz?
Because Iran carried out an attack early in the morning, and now news is coming in again indicating that today's attack is a renewed one directed at the Strait of Hormuz.
Do you think that after the United States' independence, it celebrated its 250th anniversary?
The Islamic Republic is also at the end of the ceremony of the unveiling of Ali Khamenei, and both have reached what they wanted.
Do you think that, after all these ceremonies and after these signs, could hostilities between the Islamic Republic and America resume?
I don't even know this one at all.
I think the scheduling will likely be delayed until after Mr. Netanyahu's trip to Washington.
That is, in fact, when Mr. Trump returns from Turkey, and now until Friday, when ceremonies are reportedly taking place in Tehran, Mashhad, and other places.
Mr. Netanyahu is coming to Washington for a meeting with Trump.
Following that trip, I don't doubt that a series of military actions—or at the very least, some military signals—will be directed toward the Islamic Republic.
The Islamic Republic is currently behaving this way in order to seize the upper hand.
Say that we still have military power.
And from the time frame that Trump has set, during which we will not attack the Islamic Republic until they free their prisoners.
He wants to make optimal use of it.
This, however, is another sign of the irrationality of the Islamic Republic regime.
that it's reaching the point where, if I want, I can create disorder in the global order
No, that it has the capability to alter the global order.