آقای شایان سمیعی، کارشناس امنیت ملی، در این گفتوگو به بررسی پیامدهای دیدار دونالد ترامپ و بنیامین نتانیاهو، اهمیت سفر همزمان بنیامین نتانیاهو و ولودیمیر زلنسکی به ایالات متحده، و همچنین پیشنهاد مطرحشده از سوی عمان درباره دریافت عوارض اختیاری از کشتیهای عبوری از تنگه هرمز میپردازد.
از اینکه نظرات و پیشنهادات خود را برای ما مینویسید، سپاسگزاریم.
This discussion features national security expert Shayan Sami, who analyzes the geopolitical tensions surrounding the Islamic Republic of Iran, its relations with the US and Israel, and the strategic maneuvers involving Oman and other regional players.
In another conversation, from the perspective of three and the Persian school, welcome. I'm Shahrzad Qanei, and my guest is Mr. Shayan Sami. Welcome, national security expert, from Washington, D.C.
I am honored by your presence, Lady, and the presence of the people is the reason for Iran's glory. Thank you for your invitation.
Mr. Sami, you mentioned that Oman has proposed to the Islamic Republic that they receive the amount from any ship they wish to seize, through the Dafatalban method. How feasible is this in practice?
How much of this kind of thing would the Islamic Republic actually accept? For instance, a ship being rejected and payment made, but if it wishes, not making payment to another ship.
If you could slightly adjust this so that it becomes clear in practice— for example, if ships were to pay the money directly to their own debtors?
No, the issue is that in certain waterways—such as the Dardanelles, and even the Suez Canal—ships pay a fee, freely determined, for security and maintenance purposes during their passage.
However, this applies to international waterways such as the Strait of Hormuz, where navigation is never interrupted—meaning no system has been established for it, unlike the Suez Canal, which must have a defined route under control.
It is not feasible to block the passage of tankers and ships through the Strait of Hormuz; in reality, this is a form of ransom being imposed on an international waterway that belongs to all nations of the world.
If we go back to reality, a larger portion of the Strait of Hormuz lies within Oman's geographical jurisdiction; however, the Islamic Republic claims it has full control there.
That is a false reality; the Islamic Republic wants to actually demonstrate that it owns the place and then come and say that we have the right to control it.
The Islamic Republic is referring to how, for instance, Egypt is utilizing the Suez Canal and receiving revenues from it.
There, due to its strategic location, it has strategic importance, ensures security, and serves as a hub where ships dock.
And precisely for this reason, the Islamic Republic is trying to catch a fish from a single drop of water, and since it has been based on this principle,
The Hormuz Strait is a place that has not yet been considered for economic exploitation, and it represents a free opportunity they could seize.
Amid all of this, Oman also refrained from taking any stance, so as to gain an advantage for the Islamic Republic in reality.
They are offering this proposal to buy legitimacy and cooperation from the major countries of the world, especially the United States.
In the end, even Oman realizes that no ship from any country will be willing to risk it for a waterway that lacks both the necessary security provisions and the need to establish them.
No, they are not capable of using it because they need management, planning, and personnel to manage it.
The Iranian Republic's stance, as demonstrated to the world and to the Iranian people, is that if even the slightest action is taken against me, I will severely retaliate.
We see that he attacks the countries that are being attacked from the bases of neighboring countries.
From the American bases that are being attacked
Executions we carried out recently and the execution in Esfahan
Now, how can such a policy, which has been pursued for years, seem to be slightly weakening the Islamic Revolution's stance against America at this moment?
America's campaigns have clearly weakened the Islamic Republic's resistance.
But is it possible that an Islamic republic that has pursued such a policy for decades could now reach an agreement with the United States?
As you know, the Islamic Republic has been striving in the field of taqiyya, especially in recent months.
It could be a political rift between America and its allies despite their shared interests.
that can make optimal use of this
Currently, we see that U.S. President Biden's national security advisor, Mr. Jake Sullivan, is emphasizing this point.
From an Islamic standpoint, it is permissible to come through negotiation, and he himself has stated that we are in negotiation with the people of Iran.
Which people? They must understand that the people of Iran will not sit at the negotiation table.
The hostages are the people of Iran who have sat at the negotiating table.
It has attempted, through the Islamic Republic's diplomatic channels, to use Pakistan, Turkey, Qatar, and Oman as intermediaries.
He has drunk so much of this water that none of these people can make decisions.
It should not have the power to exert pressure or the final word.
Whenever any of these comes up, America itself would actually be plunged into confusion.
It is also directed in the same way that the Islamic Republic continues to exploit it as long as it perceives that it can achieve political gains through this tactic.
The highest form of oppression with an Islamic character is the imposition of pressure and force upon the people.
It views Islamic executions and human rights violations on Iranian soil as a threat to its own survival.
And as long as the large eyes of the great ones in the heart of the United States do not turn toward the Islamic Republic's revolutionary path, this kind of trend will continue.
The Islamic Republic is trying to make optimal use of this.
That is precisely why I am focusing on this matter, following the recent talks between Mr. Trump and Mr. Netanyahu.
and as a result of the intelligence information that the Mossad organization is about to provide to the Presidency of the United States and the White House
Could the equations get mixed up with the gold of the Islamic Republic?
And America must bear this burden, that it must endure hardship, suffering, and humiliation for the Islamic Republic.
Force the Islamic Republic to either courageously accept or reject the championship, or drink the cup of society.
Moving on to Mr. Siami's remarks, I just want to say that the Islamic Republic has not been particularly successful.
Because he had been seeking revenge for the killing of Qasem Soleimani for years and had not succeeded.
You mentioned Israel.
Israeli officials said Netanyahu is set to present a series of hidden elements of the Islamic Republic's clandestine activities and nuclear program to the White House.
Do you think you know what the outcome of today's meeting will be?
I'm concerned that we might not receive the meeting's output today within the next 24 or 48 hours.
It takes a bit more time because the information and these security data need to be discussed and reviewed.
And afterward, military, security, and political planning took place regarding the dream and those involved.
So you surely won't be surprised in the coming days if Mr. Trump ends up exploiting the very same pattern of weakness and illness he's currently displaying.
One day he says, "We will launch a hard attack on Iran," and the next day he announces, "We are currently engaged in very intense negotiations with them."
It exploits this trend, because in the Islamic Republic we can see right now that
Announce that there is a unity and a single voice behind this thing that everyone is demanding.
No, there is a voluntary hallucination there, describing the Sipah and the chief of the people to a unified food, a type of bread, radan, zulghad.
They are all following a single, consistent trend.
People like Momeni, Qalibaf, and Eraghchi are those who want to create champions from themselves.
so they can create a position for themselves in the future
That's exactly why I don't want to exchange currency.
The United States must make tough military, intelligence, and political decisions.
And keep in mind the best approach and the best performance.
The absence of the Islamic Republic government in the country of Iran
So that no model alters the nature of this government when interacting with it
Could you please just change a little bit of the work outline?
But all the individuals who are currently in positions of power there
None of them went to bed.
We want to write human rights.
Or, if you want, we can establish a referendum.
that the people of Iran make the decision
What kind of government and what kind of system do they want to impose upon them?
They call it the Islamic Republic regime itself.
Now with a bit of change and difference
And that is precisely why I am addressing this matter.
Decisions in the coming few days
The first military incident will occur
Security data will be supplemented behind their backs.
And ultimately, a political decision regarding engagement with the Islamic Republic will be made.
Do you think the U.S.-Israel relationship has a dark side?
This war was placed under academic supervision.
Because of the recent interactions that Trump has carried out
It shows that relations between Netanyahu and Trump remain intact.
There are good connections.
In this regard, we have witnessed this challenge between the two.
opposite Iran
And we saw that in recent American attacks, Israel did not carry out the attacks.
Or how could he possibly want to get involved in this war of his in America?
Do you think that after this meeting that is scheduled to take place
Will it be different in the future?
Certainly, we must never forget these two moments.
Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Trump have both always stated it themselves.
The United States and Israel are like a family to each other.
Sometimes they may also have disagreements with each other.
The two times that you see upon the stage
or what some media outlets report
You surely know that he needs to let out some information.
To gauge public opinion or to manipulate public opinion
If not, I will inform the esteemed correspondents who have paid attention to this point.
up to today, January 20, 2025, when Mr. Trump has once again returned to the White House
To date, Mr. Netanyahu is coming to the White House for the eighth time.
And for meeting with Mr. Trump, no other leader in the world
No president or prime minister has met one-on-one with Mr. Trump to the extent that they have.
This does not indicate differences.
This indicates close cooperation among the narrow ones.
Even if they show us something on stage
that somewhat influence public opinion
A certain number of them are internal requirements of each of these caches.
And together, they narrate a story of chess and checkmate.
I am the one who is on this matter.
After today's discussions, the minimum limit
We will witness even more chaos.
And don't forget this either
Whenever Israel remains silent
You may not know that a series of plans had been carried out behind the scenes.
As in the days leading up to the 38-day war
It was Mr. Trump who was talking every moment.
It was challenging the Islamic Republic.
Accused the leaders of the Islamic Republic
Israel said nothing at all.
But these were Israeli aircraft that targeted and eliminated Khamenei.
Then remember us
Background coordination with planning activities
Conversations on stage and in front of the cameras must not be mistaken.
Maybe this meeting could happen together with the three of us again.
Why do you think these people should travel together?
Look here
Now, the thing that everyone on stage knows
And Mr. Trump has also said
That was the reason why Mr. Zelenskyy and Mr. Netanyahu were both together
To attend the memorial ceremony for the life of Senator Lindsy Gram, I came to America.
But behind the scenes, what Mr. Trump really wants is to see
What aspects are the plans for Ukraine focusing on?
Mr. Zelenskyy is interested in receiving even a little from America.
Let him take that land, America will provide him with more weapons to confront Putin.
America will put greater pressure on Putin.
What is it that everyone is after with Netanyahu that they can give to Putin?
That Putin has taken support from one of the Islamic Republics
Or two putins, like the one offered to Bashar al-Assad
Present it also to the leaders of the Islamic Republic government.
For a safe passage route that would allow them to enter the United States
Military conflict escalated, and they preferred surrender to ensure a passage route.
What advantages is Putin aiming for right now?
What advantages does Zelenskyy currently offer?
And in the midst of this, what is Netanyahu's assessment of these two?
I don't know whether these people are supposed to meet each other.
But I don't find it unlikely that after the meeting ended
Let us know whether yes, they had met each other before.
We will surely be certain of the outcome within the next ten to fourteen days.
You see, the Islamic Republic is making an effort.
Using a person named J.D. Vance, who is the Vice President of the United States
Of course, he is a political newcomer.
He doesn't have that much political experience in a short span of time.
and the Islamic Republic and the nature of the Islamic Republic, like killed workers
You can't be a jerk like Marco Rubio.
Mr. J.D. Vance, in addition, believes that
So that he can bring back our Maga crowd, or in other words, our greatness, to America.
They were supporters of Mr. Trump.
And he selected them for himself for the 2028 presidential election.
Keep in mind that it must be able to understand their perspective.
that in fact is the solitariness of the nomad
And non-interference in other countries
And the non-use of American military bases
In other countries, sit on the chair.
If saying these words during the election campaign earns you a lot of points
But in the course of devaluation and political maneuvering
This issue cannot have a place.
Because the realities on stage might be very distant from those ideals and dreams.
Mr. J.D. Ward is now trying his best.
A glance at the 2028 elections
He keeps a bunch of fans for himself.
The Islamic Republic has realized this.
And he has realized that if they can
With the trend toward interactive idiomatic negotiations of litanah
Push forward with their work, making their goals multifaceted.
One, the Islamic Republic has succeeded
Bring the matter to the U.S. midterm elections.
that if even the Democrats manage to take control of one of the U.S. Congress chambers
It will be very difficult for him to work for Trump.
And the continuation of the war is truly very burdensome.
Second, can the Islamic Republic stretch this issue out so much?
as we stand on the brink of the 2028 elections
Because the 2028 elections practically begin in the autumn of 2027.
Then the Islamic Republic wants to reach that stage.
that Americans are so obsessed
that the issues of binomiality be resolved
America cannot allow its government to interfere in international matters either.
With this difference thrown into the midst of the Republican Party
The Islamic Republic is currently making use of it.
How does it also carry out these actions?
Through the lobbying groups that the Islamic Republic maintains in the United States
It could have an impact on people like Mr. Jidi Vars.
What is the opposite of that?
Republican Party moderates and Republican Party traditionalists
Just like Mr. Mark Levin and just like Ms. Lauren Lommer
They have an excessive influence over Mr. Trump.
They're trying to get Tramf back on the main path of the story.
that the dream on your head stubbornly with the Islamic Republic
Don't be fooled by the nice words of the Islamic Republic.
I talked to them.
Then I will proceed with the explanations you provided, Mr. Shayan Sami.
Thank you so much since you put up the Persian version for Pabitaní
Thank you.