Ukraine is laying the groundwork for a counteroffensive by isolating Crimea
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Ukraine's campaign to destroy Russian military logistics in occupied Crimea and the south is consistently creating the conditions for a future Ukrainian counteroffensive against deprived Russian forces, writes Foreign Policy journalist Paul Hockenos.
The author describes a campaign of Ukrainian drone strikes against Russian logistics routes in the occupied territories that began in April – from hunting fuel trucks on the roads to destroying ferries at the Kerch Strait crossing.
The article states that the consequences of such a campaign extend far beyond the inconvenience to the civilian population. Ukrainian strikes have already led to fuel and ammunition shortages in the occupied territories of the Zaporizhia and Kherson regions.
"Ukraine's cessation of fuel supplies to the southern front paralyzes Russian military logistics and isolates Russian forces," emphasized Serhiy Kuzan, head of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation. According to him, this complicates troop rotation, the evacuation of the wounded, and the supply of weapons.
As Foreign Policy notes, back in May, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense announced a "logistics lockdown" strategy designed to turn Crimea into an "island" isolated from mainland Russia. Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov stated that the goal was to cut off the peninsula from Russian supply routes and destroy critical infrastructure, so that the Russian occupation would "gradually collapse."
George Barros, an analyst at the American Institute for the Study of War, believes that Ukraine is currently creating the most favorable conditions for future offensive actions. "Ukraine is shaping the battlefield," he said. According to the expert, Ukrainian forces are gradually making Russian defenses more vulnerable, and the counteroffensive itself can only begin after a prolonged period of attrition. Kuzan also noted that the campaign has not only a military but also a political effect.
"We know that there are larger contingents of FSB officers in Crimea, likely to combat public discontent," he said.
According to the expert, Russia is also forced to deploy additional troops and air defense assets to the peninsula to protect supply routes.
According to the author of the publication, by creating a threat to Crimea, Ukraine not only complicates the supply of Russian troops along the entire southern front, but also demonstrates to Russian society that the occupation of the peninsula has not provided the security that the Kremlin promised after its seizure in 2014. At the same time, the publication emphasizes that these are specifically the assessments of a journalist and military experts. Ukrainian authorities have not officially announced any specific timelines or plans for a possible future counteroffensive. But earlier, Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov stated that Ukraine aims to cut off all major supply routes to the peninsula and destroy critical infrastructure.
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