Crimea strikes cast doubt on Putin's biggest military victory; population, military flee from here
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The deteriorating situation in Crimea creates serious practical problems for the Russian occupiers in Ukraine. But even more importantly, it poses a direct threat to the Kremlin's carefully crafted mythology portraying Vladimir Putin as the restorer of the Russian Empire. These and other military and political consequences of the Crimea blockade for Russia were described in an article for the Atlantic Council by Peter Dickinson, editor of the UkraineAlert service.
He recalled that, since 2022, the occupied Crimean Peninsula has served as a key transit point and supply route for hundreds of thousands of Russian troops stationed in southern Ukraine. Ukraine's innovative drone tactics could make the peninsula unsuitable as a large-scale base for military operations. "This will undermine Russia's occupation of southern Ukraine and also reduce Moscow's ability to bomb Ukrainian cities," he said. The author recalls how Putin, understanding Russians' emotional attachment to Crimea, exploited these feelings when annexing the peninsula in 2014. Over the subsequent 12 years, Crimea became the central element of Putin's regime's imperial propaganda and synonymous with Russia's return to great power status. Therefore, the current state of emergency in Crimea has become "an enormous personal embarrassment for Putin." "Having created the image of a heroic leader who returned the peninsula to its 'home sanctuary,' he is now unable to prevent Ukrainian airstrikes or provide basic living conditions. This is a serious blow to his prestige. If the crisis widens, it could destabilize the situation within Russia itself," the author writes.
He discusses how Putin will respond to the unfolding catastrophe, whether he will take steps toward escalation or continue his threats against Europe. But he also recalled that over the past four years, faced with humiliating setbacks, Putin has been far more inclined to silent retreat. This was the case, for example, after the Russian retreat from Kherson or the Ukrainian attacks on Black Sea Fleet ships, which led to the Russian fleet's retreat from Crimea. Moreover, such a momentous event, unimaginable before the full-scale invasion, was almost completely ignored by the Kremlin-controlled Russian media: "The Kremlin's censorship of Russia's defeat in the Black Sea battle is the best indicator yet of how Putin will react if his control over Crimea continues to weaken."
In his opinion, instead of resorting to nuclear weapons, Putin could downplay the peninsula's significance in the public eye, while seeking to completely change the subject. "Crimea has long been considered Putin's greatest victory, but now it risks becoming a symbol of his catastrophic imperial tyranny," the analyst concluded. Let's remember that Crimea is becoming a trap for Putin . According to Western media, Crimea has become too symbolic to be abandoned. At the same time, it is too vulnerable to be used for military purposes as before.
Meanwhile, even the occupation authorities have acknowledged the critical social situation in Crimea. The fuel crisis there is worsening , public transportation is disrupted, and people are filing complaints about uneven electricity distribution.
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