Russian vehicles can now shrug off cheap drones; but Ukrainian pilots are sending one they can’t

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Relentlessly droning Russian troops and vehicles just west of Huliaipole in southern Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia Oblast, the Ukrainian 237th Unmanned Systems Battalion isn't just blocking a Russian offensive. It's also working out a possible new anti-vehicle tactic.
A video montage of the battalion's work, published on 30 October, depicts recent drone strikes on trucks, armored vehicles, and artillery. Most of the depicted strikes involve the usual first-person-view drones. But a few involve much heavier fixed-wing drones.
That's unusual. Ukrainian units usually reserve their fixed-wing drones, including Fire Point FP-1s and FP-2s, for deep strike hundreds of kilometers behind the disputed gray zone. When the FP-1/2s and similar drones strike closer to the gray zone, it's usually for so-called "middle strikes" on Russian supply lines. Fixed-wing drones aren't normally involved in strikes on individual armored vehicles, and for one main reason: cost. An FP-1 or FP-2 might cost $50,000. After all, these drones weigh hundreds of kilograms, pack warheads as heavy as 158 kg, and range hundreds of kilometers. By contrast, the tiny FPV drones that carry out most of the strikes on Russian infantry and assault vehicles in and around the gray zone weigh just a couple of kilograms, half of which might be warhead, and cost just $500 apiece.
In other words, the more expensive fixed-wing drones are for precise, destructive strikes on high-value targets well behind the gray zone. The cheaper FPV drones are for hounding hapless individual Russian infantry and vehicle crews as they struggle toward or across the gray zone. Expensive drone for expensive target. Cheap drone for cheap target.
But there's a problem. Heaping layers of anti-drone armor on their assault vehicles, the Russians have produced whole classes of vehicle that are highly resistant to FPV strikes. Metal cages, plates, mesh, and spine can trigger FPVs' warheads a safe distance from a vehicle's hull. Some of these turtle, hedgehog, and porcupine vehicles have absorbed dozens of FPV strikes before succumbing.
The drone strike math is changing. If it takes dozens of $500 drones to maybe take out an up-armored vehicle, it might be cost-effective to swap in a single fixed-wing drone, instead—and virtually guarantee that a single hit will result in a catastrophic kill. A hedgehog vehicle might survive repeated near-misses by FPVs with their 1-kg warheads. No vehicle survives a direct hit by an FP-2 packing a 158-kg warhead.
It's possible the 237th Unmanned Systems Battalion is poised to make the switch. And the tactic could spread as Ukrainian industry churns out more and more fixed-wing drones and Russians up-armor more and more vehicles. It's possible the new drone tactic and the new anti-drone vehicles will soon meet on a larger scale. "If Russia ever dares to return to armored assaults, I predict one Ukrainian adaptation will be to middle-strike the crap out of these with the large fixed wings that have a substantially larger warhead compared to FPVs," observer Moklasen wrote. For now, it's enough for the 237th Unmanned Systems Battalion to keep up the pressure on the Russian 127th Motor Rifle Division and adjacent units across the gray zone west of Huliaipole. Last year, the Russians achieved some of their most dramatic victories along this axis as they pushed outnumbered and outgunned Ukrainian defenders west toward Zaporizhzhia City.
Back in February, the Ukrainians reinforced—and struck back. Aided by the abrupt bricking of Russia's thousands of smuggled and stolen Starlink satellite terminals, a clutch of Ukrainian assault and air assault brigades counterattacked, swiftly erasing months of Russian gains. Now the Ukrainians west of Huliaipole have one job: hold the line.
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