How to Read Election Prediction Market Price Swings

The way that they view it is that if it's somewhere between a 5% to 10% flip in terms of the percentages, it's not something that really means a lot. It's just things go either way. It's like almost shorting the market there if you want to pick up a couple of percentage points. 20% usually means there's a potential shift, but what the prediction market analysts say is that anytime you see something between 30% to 40%, you probably want to get in at And at that point, because it seems like a complete. Complete flip is about to happen, but not a 10%, not a 15%. If you want to try and give it a shot, you could, but you could be on the other end of it. You could be on the losing end of it just with the amount of money that's being put up with some of this stuff. But I think without a doubt that when. You're seeing somebody go from, let's say, 75 to 55. I think at that point, you have to make the decision, hey, is it time to jump in, or is it just a lot of money coming in on the other side? Is there any real information to this? Probably not in a lot of cases. So we'll know a lot more coming up in about 25 minutes from now. But zero precincts reporting, at least according to CalSheet and PolyMarket, on anything at the moment, all speculation for the time being. Yes, and also understand, you're going to have states like Ohio, North Carolina, and Texas, right? The first reports that are going to come from them are the early and mail-in votes. That's what you're going to see first. That's how they report in those states. They're going to give you the early and the mail-in vote count. That means absolutely nothing about who actually is at the polls and what the polls is going on right now. So again, don't buy into the overreaction for some of these numbers, especially in the states where the first thing you're going to hear is about the early in the mail-in votes, which quite honestly has already been worked in to what the numbers are in a lot of these spots. Keep an eye on those. We're going to do the same. Obviously, polls are getting ready to close here within the next hour. Also understand there are a number of markets, Greg, where they have already declared they're pushing. How long it is before the polls close. In some places where it might have been 8 o'clock, some states are already now pushing the polls outward because they just can't get everybody in under the time frame now. So understand exactly what it is and where it is that you are looking to bet here. But as far as we're concerned, we are all about... Buying low and selling high here. What is the first upset, so to speak, Greg, that we see on the board tonight early? What is the first overreaction going to be? Is it going to be the chamber? Is it going to be a House or a Senate race? Is it going to be possibly a swing? Because you and I both know it's no different than the public. I hear Lamar Jackson is now on the IR. Well, we're going to run to the window and bet Jacksonville. Well, and. Big time. Same thing. One bad piece of information does not mean, or one bad report does not mean it changes what the outcome might very well be. But it certainly changes, Greg, the buying price that somebody like you and I or somebody at home watching can get into it. I'd much rather buy something at $0.60 than $0.80, and that just makes the most sense here.